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The road to the White House: disaster relief
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 11 - 2012

This was the opinion of a US President Barack Obama supporter and scholar from Chicago, as both President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney campaigns were busy getting those last-minute votes. Republican supporters were not happy with either Hurricane Sandy or Candy Crowley, the CNN news anchor and moderator of the second presidential debate, whom they alleged sided with President Obama when she corrected Romney on the administration reaction to Benghazi attack.
The US administration, supported by the plausible performance of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the hurricane devastated areas, paved the road for Obama to get another four years in the White House. In a clear indication of the hurricane implications to Romney campaign Carl Roof, the famous Republican strategist, admitted the negative impact of Hurricane Sandy on presidential elections. In fact, Sandy is not the only major event that affected the tie-up between Romney and Obama.
The Republican candidate had focussed for sometime on negative campaigning and could not make his case to a broader constituency beyond people who are against Obama for economic or ideological reasons. The election turn-out has played a significant role in presidential elections due to the closeness and division among the American public. Such division between Democrats and Republicans has opened the way for massive negative campaigning.
The Super PAC (political action committees) played a role in funding these campaigns and ironically Romney was the first one to pay the price of adopting such strategies. “What is brilliant about Obama's team is their ability to turn the public opinion to talk about Romney's record, not the president achievement,” said professor Paul Green, the director of the Institute of Politics, Roosevelt University.
The US administration and Obama's response to the Sandy disaster complicated Romney's efforts to prove that he is the future leader the country needs. Unexpected endorsements by General Colin Powell and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, for the way the president answered the catastrophe, raised Obama's image in the general public and stopped Romney's advance among independent and swing voters.
The election is about jobs and economy, and the Democratic campaign focussed on the slogan “Forward” to convey a message to the American people that a lot of work should be completed and four years in power are not enough for Obama to leave a real imprint on the sluggish economy. A door-to-door campaign in most swing states narrowed the gap between the two candidates and encouraged the bases of both parties to come out in the early voting.
Some swing states witnessed long queues a few days before the election day. “If the president wins, it's going to be because he has offset his losses among independents by picking up even more support among those groups that voted at historic levels in 2008 — Latino voters, young voters, unmarried women, other groups that traditionally vote more liberal but don't necessarily participate at the highest rates,” Alexander Burns, senior editor at Politico, said in a briefing at Washington's Foreign Press Centre.
In explaining what happened in the race last week, Burns compares Obama's come-back phenomenon in the public polls to the decreasing coverage or public attention to Romney following the storm: “There was this sense of gathering momentum behind the Romney campaign. There was a lot of talk about this idea that Romney's polling numbers run a steady upward trajectory, and then for a week we really stopped talking about the campaign, period. You didn't hear about it in national news. For any president in a moment of crisis, there's typically some sympathy, some public rallying around that person.”
A few hours before election day, the right-wing media intensified its criticism to FEMA and Obama, apparently to reversing the heading-off. In fact, many storm victims are still suffering the lack of electricity and food despite the efforts of FEMA and the Red Cross. In a blend of damaging criticisms, former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani warned against premature praise for Obama. “The president is getting all this credit so early. The minute he got his credit, the minute he got his pat on his back, we had the same situation as we had in Benghazi,” Giuliani told Fox News.
Burns's analysis offers another perspective to the relationship between election and Sandy: “You can make the argument that Romney would be better off right now if the storm hadn't happened. I think that's a perfectly reasonable case to make because the challenger candidate in these kinds of races always needs to close with a very strong message, and the storm made that difficult.” Actually, Romney did get the chance for such an end and the Obama campaign moved in a blitz to make sure that democrats vote in full capacity.
Despite the fact that there is a growing sense of dismay because of the economy, Romney could not benefit from Obama's lapses in the last four years and that in itself, even if he wins the elections, would leave a question mark on his leadership. In 2008 Obama was able to build on the failures of George W Bush on more than one level and articulated the “Change” message in a way that resonated among different segments of American society and inspired people around the world.
Romney could have done the same. Romney might have turned the tide, but most Americans expect a strong and visionary leader, and didn't find this in him. With all these developments, swing states, mainly Ohio and Florida, had turned out to be a real battle grounds for both candidates. The main target in swing states is not supporters, but independent voters.
From the presidential debates to Sandy, the race offers several lessons and confirms some stereotypes regarding how the American public approach certain issues during the presidential dead-heat races, namely foreign policy. In 2012, major foreign policy issues almost disappeared or were sidelined because of the state of the economy and the worries of average citizens. The relationship with the international community is based on the shape of the domestic economy for the most part.
A US public policy expert noted that “demonstrators, in one of the swing states, went out to protest against China's trade policy not Obama's economic record. This is an indication.” Also, what foreign policy specialists considered significant and pivotal issues, like Iran, Syria and the Arab Spring, were suppressed because the incumbent president and the challenger were in a dead heat.


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