Iran nuclear deal: Implementation is key

Nuclear deal with Iran signifies huge step towards solving conflict, but its implementation won't be simple, say experts

What political crisis requires eleven years to solve? Iran's nuclear programme.
The so-called P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) have finally concluded a nuclear deal with Iran after four days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland.
As anticipated, Saturday's deal took account of various points that had obstructed nuclear talks over the last few years, such as economic sanctions, uranium enrichment and the inspection of nuclear sites by UN experts.
Politics, not only technicalities, have absorbed an enormous share of international attention, including the improvement of Western-Iranian relations, the reaction of anti-Tehran Arab states and, most importantly, the motives of negotiating partners to finish the job.
The question of the future appears crucial when it comes to Iran's seriousness about implementing the deal and the readiness of the West, especially the United States, to reconsider military action if the process fails.
Terms & Conditions
"To reach an agreement, there is no way except through mutual respect and sincere negotiations, something our counterparts came to appreciate without delay," Iranian President Hassan Rouhani tweeted on Sunday.
The United States, the European Union, China and Russia all praised the agreement.
The Syrian regime, amid all of its conflicts with the international community, described it as "historic."
But since the deal will end after six months, another round of talks will probably resume.
The deal provided "limited, temporary, targeted and reversible" sanctions relief worth roughly $7 billion, in addition to the non-imposition of new sanctions if Iran abides by the deal.
They will suspend "certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Iran's auto sector, and Iran's petrochemical exports, potentially providing Iran approximately $1.5 billion in revenue," and "license safety-related repairs and inspections inside Iran for certain Iranian airlines."
The reduction of sanctions covers oil, gold and precious metals, the auto sector, petrochemicals and some airline products.
Most US and Security Council-imposed trade and financial sanctions will remain.
Is that for free? Definitely not. First of all, Iran will allow "daily site inspections" by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts to supervise the agreement's implementation. Also, Tehran will halt all uranium enrichment activities above five percent and "dismantle the technical connections required to enrich" above such a percentage.
"The deal signifies a huge step towards solving the conflict, but no doubt that the implementation will be hard to achieve," according to Mustafa El-Labbad, director of the Al-Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies in Cairo.
El-Labbad said the agreement would prevent Iran from becoming a "nuclear power" and only Tehran and Washington were the actual negotiators.
"The presence of the rest was nominal," he stated.
The build up
In late 2002, US media published satellite images of a nuclear installation in Iran. Western suspicions were confirmed by an IAEA report in August 2003 that showed enriched uranium at central Iran's Natanz Enrichment Complex,France 24 reported.
The nuclear ambitious-state suspended uranium enrichment activities in October after a first-time visit by foreign ministers from Britain, France and Germany. Yet, it continued to refuse to halt its controversial nuclear fuel activities.
World powers then entered ineffective talks with Iran that usually ended with disagreements, new sanctions and controversy about the impact of diplomacy on this complex issue. The change only came this year.
Following his election in June, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani published an op-ed in The Washington Post underlining his country's willingness to pursue a “constructive engagement” with the West on its “peaceful nuclear energy programme.”
The new, non-aggressive approach of Rouhani, unlike that of his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was one of many steps that re-opened room for dialogue.
Rouhani revealed in a tweet on 27 September that he and Barack Obama had spoken by telephone in the highest-level contact between the two countries since 1979.
Negotiations in Geneva on 15-16 October appeared to make progress and continued on 9 November with the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the United States.
Majid Rafizadeh, a member of Harvard International Review's advisory board told Ahram Online that the deal would allow Iran to "consolidate its power and influence" in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq and be capable of militarily and economically funding their proxies, including Hezbollah.
"Israeli leaders and other regional countries believe that the deal has granted the Iranian authorities the required time to achieve the nuclear breakaway capacity and bomb-grade nuclear materials," Rafizadeh added.
He also slammed the "the ambiguity of the text and the lack of clarity" of what the P5+1 and Tehran had exactly agreed upon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the deal as "bad" and Iran had got "what it wanted."
Rafizadeh concluded by saying that the Obama administration's "political anxiety, apprehension, and reluctance to consider the alternatives" of failed talks had also pushed the deal "beyond the finish line."
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