Ahram Online sources talk on choices for new leadership in Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood that has recently seen the arrest of most of their top men; but this once-clandestine group could be pitching names as red-herrings Since Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood suffered its last blow when the Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie was rounded up a few days ago, conflicting versions about naming a successor have been coming in. In the immediate aftermath of the arrest, the Brotherhood announced on its political wing's website that it had namedMahmoud Ezzat an interim leader to head the group, only to back-pedal and withdraw the news shortly afterwards. Badie isn't alone. No less than Egypt's toppled Islamist president Mohamed Morsi has been locked up at an undisclosed location since his ouster last month and was slammed with a fresh two-week extension of his temporary detention. It was assumed that Ezzat, the supreme guide's deputy and the most senior figure out of all the ones that have not been taken into police custody, would automatically assume the post, as per the movement's bylaws. "The issue, however, still hangs in the balance, as Ezzat himself faces the immediate peril of being taken in," a leading member of the Islamist group told Ahram Online on condition of anonymity. The source also affirmed that Ezzat is still in Egypt and did not fly off to the Palestinian Gaza Strip, as rumoured. In this case ifEzzat is not able to step up to take the position, "the top leader of the group's Shura Council, Mostafa Ghoneim, who is also the council's oldest leader, would assume the top post," explains the source. If Ghoniem was disinclined to hold the post, then naming Gomaa Amin, one of the Brotherhood's top thinkers and its official historian will be highly on the cards, added the source. Alternatively, the role of the group's supreme guide might be played collectively by all these figures, reveals the source. "Badie actually did not play the role that everyone assumes he did in running the group,” added the source, pressing that a collective leadership might be inevitable at the moment as the leadership is “isolated” with mounting dissatisfaction amongst the group's grassroots members against the leading figures of the Guidance Office and the policies they adopted. "We even asked leaders taking part in Rabaa Al-Adawiya sit-in for a massive purge of the current leadership in an attempt to overcome the current crisis," he said, voicing alarm that even such a hope might have melted away in the wake of recent crackdown on its upper echelons. After police moved in to forcibly clear two major protest camps in Cairo (at Rabaa Al-Adawiya and Al-Nahda Squares) set up by loyalists of toppled Islamist president Mohamed Morsi, at least 900 were killed in clashes and dozens of the group's top leaders and more than a thousand of its followers have been rounded up. Egypt has been experiencing a tough transition to democracy after ousting 30-year-long authoritarian president Hosni Mubarak in 2011. An election saw Islamist president Mohamed Morsi scrape by into office, but millions took to the streets on his year anniversary in office on 30 June to demand early presidential elections. The military interceded and deposed the Brotherhood-fielded president, which led to the two pro-Brotherhood sit-ins that demanded Morsi's reinstatement. Leaks suggesting the appointment of Mohamed Ali Beshr, another leading member and a one-time minister under Morsi, for the post, were also refuted by the man himself. Beshr, who is not a member of the group's Guidance Bureau, (the group's executive board), would rather play the role of a political interlocutor along with Amr Darrag, secretary general of the Brotherhood's political wing, observed the source. This raises speculation that the 85-year-old Islamist group is providing false leads merely as protective camouflage, resorting to tactics the once-banned group used for three years following the assassination of its founder and first chief Hassan El-Banna in 1949. Hassan Al-Houdaiby was finally announced supreme guide late in 1951 and remained in office for more than two decades. Another possibility is that the group is seeking to shield Ezzat – a key insider who was present during the group's last five guides – from confrontations. A third scenario would be that those middle-rank leaders who survived unscathed from the recent crackdown might not want one of the group's conservative hawks in the top post to avoid further security blows. One final scenario would be that with an evident lack of communication between the group's ranks and its leadership under arrest, the Brotherhood might be enacting their regulations on how the group should function under such circumstances. This scenario is the most likely, suggest many analysts. "The group now is totally paralysed that it can't make such big decisions, such as naming a supreme guide," argues Ali Bakr, a researcher in Islamist groups' affairs at Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic and Political Studies. According to Bakr, the group managed to tailor its own organisational code to the kind of security threats they are facing. However, they may be at a loss now since they are facing an "unprecedented security attack on the group that lost a lot of its popularity on the street." Former deputy intelligence chief Hossam Khairallah appeared to accept the fact that naming a chief for a group thrown into complete disarray is not an easy task – and may not even be necessary. "Now it's the role of the Brotherhood's clandestine organisation," claimed Khairallah, arguing they are a group of leaders whose names and identities remained hidden, even after when the group came out into the open. Khairallah is of the opinion that choosing a chief would make them vulnerable. If it is defiance and confrontation with the state, then Ezzat will be its top man. But if negotiation is being mulled for a way out, then a new leader will be needed, he argues. In the days leading up to the dispersal of the two Cairo pro-Morsi protest camps, Egypt's interim government had argued for a peaceful reconciliation, pledging the Brotherhood a return to the political process. But the country's interim rulers appeared to be putting off such settlement in a bid to pressure the Brotherhood for more concessions during negotiations. "The purpose is not to crush the group, but no doubt there is a popular demand for at least control the group,"Khairallah added. Egypt's recently-resigned vice president Mohamed ElBaradei, the government's dove, had sought a peaceful resolution for the stand-off between the Muslim Brotherhood and the country's interim rulers, but to no avail amid the alleged reluctance on the part of the government. Critics argue the Brotherhood might once again be deemed an illegal organisation, but its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, could remain afloat, though under new leadership expected to come with parliamentary and presidential elections. Ex-spy chief Khairallah voiced alarm that such a twist in the embattled Islamist group's operation will be sponsored by security apparatus rather than take place on a political footing. "They might take negotiations as a cover-up to an underground operation that the organisation might return to…This is still open. We can't read how events will unfold accurately." http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/79647.aspx
