With the first round of the presidential elections yielding up an Islamist and a member of the former regime, Egypt's revolutionaries have been thrown into a quandary about who to vote for in the runoffs. What are their options? The first round of voting in Egypt's presidential elections resulted in two polarising candidates going through to the runoff: the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi and Mubarak's last premier Ahmed Shafiq. Neither were the first choice of Egypt's revolutionary groups, so what should they do in the runoff round to ensure the revolution's goals are not overlooked? Option 1: Vote for Morsi A victory for Morsi would put the Muslim Brotherhood in complete control of the government. It would hold the presidency, dominate the cabinet, and perhaps even appoint new governors. With the Brotherhood running both the legislative and executive branches of government, it would hold a monopoly of power and be in a position to exclude other groups, especially secular ones, from the political scene. This is what it did in parliament, where it is the largest party, despite vowing not to do so. There is also the question of democracy and how the Brotherhood would interpret it from an Islamic standpoint, whilst the principle of citizenry, some say, would be obliterated. One would expect the group to pass laws that suit its own narrow interests, as it did in the past. And the parliament would be unable to exercise effective control over a government that shares the same Islamist ideology. In addition, the identity of the Egyptian state would suffer if the Brotherhood was allowed to dominate the constitution-drafting assembly and alter the spirit of the constitution. National security would also suffer due to the group's plan to revive the caliphate, which is something it would love to do, according to Ahmad Abu Baraka, a senior figure in the group. Attempts to revive the caliphate would put Egypt on a collision course with other countries in the region. The group's hostility towards the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and the security forces could result in one of two outcomes: either the group would control the army and the police, or there could be a military coup. A Morsi-led regime might be more oppressive Mubarak's, because of its inclination to use religion against its opponents. So before revolutionaries even think of giving Morsi their stamp of approval, they should unite and put together a roadmap for achieving their goals. They should engage more with the public, in order to raise awareness and win allies. If Morsi is elected, there could be another revolution, either because the Brotherhood fails to implement its policies, or shows little interest in meeting the basic needs of the population. Above all, the revolutionaries must not throw their lot in with the Brotherhood, nor should they accept key government posts. They must bide their time and let the group bear the brunt of its own mistakes, which are inevitable. Option 2: Vote for Shafiq Many Egyptians say a victory for Ahmed Shafiq would signal the end of the revolution, but this might not be completely true. The worst outcome of a Shafiq victory would be that Mubarak's security forces, now under Shafiq, would make sure the revolution was aborted. Members of the old regime would remain in power, especially in the army, police, judiciary and media. The army, thanks to the protection of Shafiq, would remain unaccountable. This doesn't mean the revolutionary groups would have no wriggle room, however, because the inevitable conflict between the new president and the Brotherhood could bring them fresh opportunities. The revolutionary groups could benefit from the conflict between Shafiq and the Brotherhood by planning a strategy and opposing their attempts to abort the revolution. In particular, the revolutionaries could connect with the public, listen to their grievances, recruit supporters, and groom young leaders. They could also pressure both Shafiq and the Brotherhood to meet some of the revolution's goals. Above all, the revolutionary groups should make sure that the constitution is not written in their absence or dominated by one group. Option 3: Boycotting The call for a boycott resonates with many voters, who are not willing to support Shafiq or the Brotherhood, and has gained more supporters since the recent acquittal of interior ministry officials for killing protesters during the revolution. But is it a good option? A boycott by revolutionaries is not going to stop voters from casting their ballots for Shafiq and Morsi. Islamists are going to vote for Morsi, while Shafiq will get the votes of former members of the now disbanded National Democratic Party (NDP), plus a considerable chunk of the Coptic Christian vote. Many non-politicised voters who long for 'stability' will also vote for Shafiq. So a boycott is not going to change much. Option 4: An alternative strategy The acquittal of a number of senior Mubarak regime figures of killing protesters during the revolution has revived the political fortunes of revolutionary groups, after election fever had left them sidelined. The ruling also revived the revolutionary zeal in segments of the public which had grown apathetic. Consequently, revolutionaries are in a position to close ranks and demand the cancellation of the runoff. They are in a position, indeed, to call for the formation of a civil presidential council to run the country until the new constitution is written. http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/43930.aspx
