Egypt's major archaeological sites, hotels and tourist destinations have emptied out as fears of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak worldwide have shut down travel. In Tunisia and Morocco, two top tourist destinations in North Africa, airports, resorts and tourist attractions now stand motionless and empty. In Lebanon and Iraq, the spread of the coronavirus has delivered a further blow to already troubled economies amid falling revenues, government inefficiency and rampant corruption. In Libya, Syria and Yemen, alarm after the first virus cases were confirmed has spread in countries where years of civil war have already devastated healthcare systems. Even in the energy-rich countries of the Arabian Gulf, the coronavirus is expected to crash economies already hard hit by lower international oil prices. Across the Arab world the pandemic is taking its toll on economies, with increasing fears that the damage caused by the outbreak will bode ill for the region's socio-economic development. The Arab region has thus far recorded more than 34,000 cases of the virus and over 1,000 deaths. Many countries in the region are ill-equipped to handle the outbreak from a public health standpoint. In addition to the rising death toll and heavy burden on healthcare systems, the Arab region is suffering from consequences of the virus that are expected to change its economic order in the longer term. While economic crises loom just around the corner throughout the region, more also seems to be at stake, including the possibility of fundamentally reshaping political and social systems in many countries. Alarm bells have started sounding about the economic and financial impacts of the coronavirus across the region, with reports pouring in about a possible downturn the likes of which the Arab world has never experienced before. The outbreak is likely to induce major challenges ranging from economic slowdowns and recessions triggering soaring public debt, business failures and unemployment in some Arab states to total economic collapse in others. The wealthy Arab Gulf countries will have to battle the crunch as oil prices slump, public investment in state projects declines and small and medium-sized businesses struggle to survive. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the coronavirus crisis is expected to ravage already battered economies in the region, especially if governments mishandle the outbreak. It has warned that millions of people will lose their jobs around the Arab world due to lockdowns, closures and curfews, and it has also cautioned of more long-lasting impacts. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned that the Arab states will be one of the world's worst-hit regions in terms of the closure of companies and the laying off of staff, with an 8.1 per cent decline in working hours, representing some five million full-time workers. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) has warned that the Arab states' gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by at least $42 billion in 2020. The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation earlier estimated 3.3 per cent growth in the Arab states' GDP in 2020. The ESCWA figure could even be higher, with the compounding effects of low oil prices and the dramatic slowdown of economies due to the closure of public institutions and private-sector enterprises starting in mid-March adding to the crisis. ESCWA also predicted that the Covid-19 crisis could be responsible for pushing a further 8.3 million people in the Arab region into poverty and bumping up the number of undernourished people by some two million. Millions of irregular and migrant labourers who form the backbone of many economies in the Arab countries and work in the construction, retail, transport and services sectors will also be left struggling as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. In many Arab countries, millions of people have applied for grants and financial support from governments, while other are relying on donations from volunteers and food banks. For a region already wracked by instability, the Covid-19 crisis threatens to leave turmoil in its wake in many countries and in particular those already mired in government mismanagement, conflict and social unrest. The Arab governments are of course aware of the impacts the coronavirus crisis will likely have on their economies, and they have already put in place a range of mechanisms to try to cushion the economic shocks and prevent the population from falling into poverty. In wealthy countries, governments have launched stimulus programmes amounting to billions of dollars to support economies hit by the coronavirus and falling oil prices. To prevent companies from laying off staff, they have announced plans to cover portions of private-sector salaries in businesses most impacted by the coronavirus. But sooner rather than later the rich Arab nations will run out of cash and will no longer be able to provide aid to other Arab countries and pay millions of foreign workers. In other Arab countries austerity and precautionary measures have been taken to protect economic reform efforts from the impact of the coronavirus, with warnings coming from the UN Development Programme (UNDP) that it will leave deep and long-lasting scars, particularly on poorer nations. As Arab states and societies tally the economic costs of the pandemic, they will also need to ponder the social and political fallout that will inevitably come as a result of the outbreak and the disruption of the lockdowns. The conventional wisdom now is that the pandemic will likely change the world forever after wreaking havoc on it, and this raises the question of what the Arab region will look like after the coronavirus. The Arab world is now facing perhaps its biggest crisis in generations. The decisions that the Arab governments and peoples now take will probably shape the region for years to come, affecting not just healthcare systems, but also economies, polities and cultures. In the post-viral era, the Arab countries will need to restructure their economic and social orders, profoundly diverging from those that previously shaped them and having long-lasting and pervasive effects. In almost all the countries of the region, efforts will need to be made and measures taken to improve healthcare systems to increase capacities, improve services and protect public health more effectively. While measures to mitigate the outbreak should continue, the Arab governments need to embark on fundamental reforms to their economic systems in order to stem the current recession and stimulate growth. Strong measures are also needed to end inefficiency and waste and fight more effectively against the corruption that was to blame for the poor start in containing the pandemic in the region. As each Arab country confronts the new circumstances of the post-coronavirus era, one of the most important questions will be whether there will be a collective Arab response to the challenge. Probably not since the Arab-Israeli Wars of 1948 and 1967 and the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 has the Arab world been in such a moment of common national crisis as the coronavirus continues to batter regional countries. At such a time of national calamity, each of the Arab countries should choose between nationalist isolation and the fashioning of new forms of Arab solidarity to respond to the fight against the pandemic and its consequences. Governments, peoples and civil society across the Arab world should unite to coordinate policies to fight the coronavirus and stretch out helping hands to fellow Arab countries in need of assistance. However, thus far there have been no joint action plans set out by Arab governments to support individual countries' efforts at tackling the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic, political and social crises. The coronavirus pandemic is thus a major test of pan-Arabism, revealing not just challenges but also opportunities to overcome the political differences and disputes that have poisoned inter-Arab relations and hindered the creation of common capacities. But a sickening combination of inaction and paralysis remains, stymying choices that must be made to cooperate in defeating the coronavirus and acting effectively to meet the looming economic downturn that threatens to upend politics across the region. Arab political unity remains as elusive as ever, but the coronavirus outbreak is prompting many to wonder whether the crisis could provide an opportunity for the Arab states to abandon their traditionally inept management of crises. The coronavirus pandemic is a regional challenge that needs strong collective cooperation not only to stop the outbreak, but also to use it as the catalyst for taking hard decisions to face up to the ensuing crisis that will shape not just the Arab world's healthcare systems but also its economies, polities and cultures. However, thus far no far-reaching action has been taken, and no bold initiative has been produced to mobilise the much needed inter-Arab solidarity and joint action needed to address the crisis. *A version of this article appears in print in the 23 April, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
