As Iran steps up its appeals for relief from crippling US economic sanctions to fight the coronavirus pandemic that is ravaging the Islamic Republic with tremendous force, its policymakers are showing no sign of de-escalating their regional confrontational strategy. In the meantime, there are increasing signs that Iran's leaders are exploiting the coronavirus outbreak to advance their campaign against the US sanctions and further their regional expansionist agenda. But while Iran's continuous belligerency is undermining growing calls from the United Nations and other international organisations to lift the embargo to help Tehran fight the coronavirus pandemic, its defiance could also bring it closer to war with Washington. Iran has one of the world's worst Covid-19 outbreaks, which has killed at some 4,000 people and infected about 56,000, according to official figures. But a member of the National Coronavirus Combat Taskforce for the Islamic Republic of Iran revealed on Monday that half a million people in the country suffer from the deadly virus. Iranian officials say the US sanctions are crippling the country's ability to fight the disease. Many experts would agree that the US sanctions may have doubled down on Iran's fragile healthcare system and increased the sheer scale of the suffering. However, critics point to Iran's huge military spending, its bankrolling of regional proxies, and its basic errors in handling the disease as main reasons for its failing effectively to tackle the spread of the Covid-19. As evidence of the mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic rise, suspicions are also growing that Iran's rulers are continuing to put their ideological and political interests above all else regardless of the consequences for their people. A glaring example of Iran's continuous promotion of its interests through proxies and partners abroad is in Iraq, where tension is building with the United States which has thousands of troops in the country supporting the fight against terrorism. In recent weeks, Iran and the US have exchanged harsh words over both the impact of the sanctions on the spread of the epidemic in Iran and their conflicting agendas in Iraq. The saber-rattling came after US intelligence suggested that Iran or Iran-backed forces were planning potentially serious attacks against US military personnel in Iraq. US President Donald Trump warned on Twitter that Iran would pay a “heavy price indeed” if it carried out plans for a “sneak attack” on US forces in Iraq whether carried out by Iran or its proxies. In response, Iran's army chief of staff Mohamed Bagheri warned that US forces in the region were being closely monitored minute by minute and any US attack would produce a severe response. The jab-trading came after reports that the Pentagon had ordered US military commanders to plan for an escalation of American military activities in Iraq. The US media reported that a Pentagon directive had ordered the troops to prepare a campaign to destroy an Iranian-backed militia group in the country. The New York Times said US Defence Secretary Mark T Esper had authorised planning for the campaign inside Iraq to provide options for Trump in the event that Iranian-backed militia groups escalated their own attacks against US troops. The escalation also came amid reports that the US has deployed Patriot ground-based air defences in Iraq, which the Pentagon says are being set up to protect US service members from air threats. Since the US killed Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran's Al-Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF), in a drone strike in Iraq in January, Iran-backed Shia militias have been issuing threats against the US in Iraq. In another sign of defiance, Tehran sent Suleimani's successor Ismail Ghaani to Baghdad last week to try to unify Iraq's fractured political leaders, boost Iran's proxies and rally Iraqi leaders behind demands to expel US troops from Iraq. Iran's Mehr News Agency reported Saturday that Ghaani's visit to Iraq was meant to send a strong message to the United States that Iran would not “leave the Iraqi ally a prey to” Washington after Suleimani's assassination. Ghaani's trip came amid a political crisis in Iraq as Prime Minister-designate Adnan Al-Zurfi faced strong resistance from Iran-backed Shia groups accusing him of being pro-American. On Saturday, eight Iran-backed militias issued a statement saying they considered the US soldiers in Iraq to be “occupation forces” and would deal with them accordingly. The groups, which also work under the PMF umbrella, blasted Al-Zurfi as an agent of the US Central Intelligence Agency and vowed to stop his endorsement by the parliament. The latest threat came on the heels of a series of attacks on military bases across Iraq that also host US troops that Washington has blamed on Shia militias. Whether in Iraq, other Middle East hotspots, or over its nuclear programme, Iran seems unbudgeable despite the crippling sanctions and the devastating impact of the coronavirus. The Iranian intransigence also puts in question Tehran's push to lift the US sanctions that it says are hampering its fight against the Covid-19. Iran's endeavours are gaining traction around the globe, winning support from the United Nations, the European Union, world human rights groups and many allies like Russia and China. UN Secretary General António Guterres and other senior UN officials have called for the lifting of sanctions against Iran in order to ensure that the country will be able to battle the Covid-19 outbreak. In Europe, France, Germany and the United Kingdom have activated a sanctions bypass mechanism to allow Iran to dodge the US embargo in order to send medical supplies to the Islamic Republic. The European Union has also donated $22 million in humanitarian aid to Iran and exported medical goods to the country in its first use of a financial mechanism set up to allow European companies to work around the American sanctions. Even in the United States, nearly three dozen members of the US Congress have appealed to the Trump administration to suspend the sanctions for as long as Iran is battling the coronavirus. Former vice-president and Democratic Party frontrunner in the presidential elections Joe Biden also called for the government to ease its sanctions on Iran as it struggles to contain an exploding coronavirus outbreak. As international pressure on the United States to ease its sanctions on Iran mounts, the Trump administration has not yet shown any sign of easing its “maximum pressure” policy on Iran and its attempts to suffocate its economy. Instead of giving sanctions relief, Washington has offered to allow what it calls “humanitarian assistance,” including facilitating financial transactions connected to medical supplies to fight the Covid-19. Iran's leaders, however, have repeatedly rejected the US offer for help in battling the coronavirus outbreak and vowed to defeat the epidemic despite the sanctions that are choking off its oil revenues and isolating its economy. Iran and the United States share many conflicts, not least over Tehran's nuclear progamme and its growing influence in the Middle East, but since the US-led invasion in 2003 Iraq has turned into a battlefield in a prolonged proxy conflict between the two nations. Over the past few years, the United States and Iran have remained at loggerheads, as both compete for influence in Iraq where both claim interests and have ties to local actors in the security forces, the government, the armed factions and with other non-state groups. There are increasing fears that both Tehran and Washington are using the spread of the coronavirus in their two countries and worldwide to assert their confrontational strategies and possibly as a cover for war. While Iran hopes that Trump's mishandling of the Covid-19 outbreak in the US will limit his administration's ability to interfere in Iraq, the United States hopes that an Iran devastated by the coronavirus, its economic impacts and an ensuing power struggle will eventually topple the regime in Tehran. Ultimately, this ongoing tension, particularly with the added pressures of the coronavirus outbreak and its economic impacts, is likely to further expose Tehran's and Washington's conflicting interests that could push them closer to a military clash. Students of history will know that in such a strained atmosphere, the signs of conflict will become more common, and unanticipated incidents could push government leaders into the trap of opting for warfare over rhetoric. In the ongoing US-Iranian standoff, the deepest threat will come from the pro-Iran Shia militias that are threatening to attack US forces in Iraq and any miscalculations by the US troops in Iraq or their commander in Washington.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 9 April, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
