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Fate of the ousted president inches further along
The referral of Hosni Mubarak to the criminal court could yet herald several scenarios
Published in Ahram Online on 24 - 05 - 2011

An official statement by the office of the public prosecutor announced the referral of toppled president Hosni Mubarak and his two sons Alaa and Gamal to the criminal court.
The three Mubaraks are faced with different sets of charges. The former president is facing charges with ordering the killing of peaceful demonstrators during the January 25 Revolution, in association with his former minister of interior Habib El-Adly.
The younger Mubaraks are facing a range of charges involving financial corruption.
Meanwhile, Mubarak senior and his once close associate Hussein Salam, who is being pursued by Interpol, are, according to another official announcement, set to stand trial before military courts for charges related to arms exports and the shipping of arms granted to Egypt from the US under the annual military assistance package.
The referral comes as the prosecutor-general exhausted all possible renewals of the 15-day custody period to which the president and both his sons have been subjected for close to two months now.
It is not clear when exactly the Mubaraks will appear before the criminal court and there is no firm announcement on whether Hosni Mubarak, who has been kept in Sharm El-Sheikh International Hospital since he was put in custody pending investigations, will be tried in Cairo or in the Red Sea resort town.
According to information obtained by Ahram Online, the actual day of litigation is to be decided in view of a set of conditions.
The first is the health condition of the former president. There are confusing accounts about his health – even the account offered by official sources in press statements. However, according to the information made available to Ahram Online, Mubarak's overall health is "really frail." "He has lost so much weight that it would be hard to recognise him," said one source.
The second condition relating to the launch of the litigation is about securing any court of law where the litigation could take place with Mubarak senior present. Given that the toppled president is kept at a Sharm El-Sheikh hospital to avoid moving him to a military facility in Cairo or anywhere close to the capital for fear of undermining his security, it is very hard, according to security sources, to predict how the operation of securing a court of law would be achieved.
The third condition for the start of the litigation against Mubarak before the criminal court, according to legal sources, is related to the case of El-Adly, who also being tried before the criminal court for ordering the killing of innocent civilians. Given that the case of El-Adly is deferred until the last week of next month, it is rather unlikely, according to the same legal sources, that there would be a rush to take Mubarak to court.
"It was important that the (former) president and his sons be referred to a criminal court before Friday to avert having a massive demonstration; the details of the litigation would be sorted out by the legal bodies," said an official source.
And even if a date is set for the first session of litigation, it is not obligatory that Mubarak senior be present; he could be absent for health reasons and in this case the launch of the litigation would be delayed.
Some official sources are determined that Mubarak will not have go to the cage of the criminal court. They insist that there are legal ways that are currently being examined to spare the former president this humiliation.
This does not apply to the case of Alaa and Gamal who could face the criminal court next month. The same official sources anticipate a heavily secured trial to which photographers and journalists might or might not be allowed.
A legal source close to the defence team of the Mubaraks is determined that it would be very difficult if not practically impossible to indict the toppled president on charges of ordering or orchestrating the killing of innocent demonstrators during the January 25 Revolution. According to this source the former president is being tried in his capacity as the chair of the Supreme Police Council but for him to be indicted by a court of law there needs to be hard and undisputable evidence – which is still lacking so far.
No recording has been found of the president ordering the killing of demonstrators and there is no trace of a written order.
Mubarak's weakest point is, perhaps, according to the same legal source, the allocation of vast state-owned territory to Hussein Salem and other businessmen, at dramatically cheaper rates than the actual prices. But even on this matter there is the legal defence of encouraging businessmen to pursue investments that help create job opportunities and there is always the exit of getting the concerned businessmen to pay the supposedly deducted amounts.
Mubarak's defence team seems fairly confident about the chances of clearing their client of most of the charges and of finding perfectly legal settlements for some other charges.
"This is if we are talking about a strictly legal process, but we are afraid of a predominantly political process whereby the litigation is heavily influenced by the public opinion or rather the views of activists," said the legal source close to the defence team.
The trial of Mubarak could well be the beginning of a legal exit to the president. If a court of law was to find Mubarak innocent of all charges of killing demonstrators and if the financial matters are settled then Mubarak could regain his freedom.
Alternatively, Mubarak could be indicted on some of the financial charges and in this case he would be issued a sentence. For the former president to be spared from serving this sentence, he would need to be granted an amnesty. This arrangement would require securing the consent of public opinion.
Some sources suggest that an exit scenario could be secured for the former president through a legal arrangement. Other sources are too concerned over public anger and according to one of those "it looks more likely that Mubarak's only real exit would be the cemetery." He added, "if the street is going to block his amnesty then he might not want to live much longer; he is already very depressed."


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