Is Egypt's revolution in danger?

While the army cracks down on protests, reports that the Mubaraks may be freed have scared Egyptians. Ahram Online asks prominent political activists and analysts how they see the revolution's future

Thousands of Egyptians gather in Tahrir today calling for releasing activists and trials of previous regime figures. Egyptian activists rallied today in a Friday protest called “Renewing the revolution and in memory of the martyrs.” Protesters demanded the release of political prisoners and trials of corrupt regime figures, including ousted president Hosni Mubarak and his two sons.
Crackdown on freedom
In the middle of Tahrir square, hundreds of Egyptians gathered on the afternoon of 18 May calling for the release of activist Tarek Shalaby and 135 other civilians detained by the military.
All were arrested during the crackdown on the 15 May protest marking Nakba Day that took place in front of the Israeli embassy in Giza. The demonstration in Tahrir also called for an end to military trials for civilians.
The assault on activists outside the Israeli embassy in Cairo earlier this week came after a series of crackdowns on protests over the past couple of months.
In Maspero, a violent attack by thugs on protesters against religious discrimination took place without any interference by the army. Many protests in Tahrir were violently dispersed by the army in March and April.
At the same time Egyptians are angry that some of the regime figures currently on trial are being released. On Tuesday, Suzanne Mubarak was released by the Illicit Gains Authority shortly after submitting documents proving that her Heliopolis villa is owned by a sovereign body and that the bank accounts under investigation were donated in her name as Egypt's first lady to be spent on charity projects.‎
Later in the day Hosni Mubarak, detained in Salam Hospital in Sharm El-Sheikh pending corruption and criminal investigation, was said to have signed a waiver by which he relinquished all his assets and properties in Egypt to authorities. This action quickly fuelled speculation that he did this merely to preclude his imminent detention and the filing of charges against him.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces vehemently denied the charge that it was considering granting ousted president Hosni Mubarak absolution without trial, and affirmed that investigations will continue as planned. Despite this declaration, however, activists are still angry and calls for a second revolution on 27 May has also begun via a Facebook page that gained over 15,000 visitors in two days.
The revolution does not rule
Elham Aidarous of the Egyptian Popular Alliance Party says the anger is justified. She says the revolution demands were split into two parts—civil and political freedom and combating corruption. “In the area of freedom, activists have been losing, there is a fierce crackdown on their right to assemble and march and to form political parties. But people were patient because the trials against corrupt figures were going well. Now after the release of Suzanne Mubarak and Zakaria Azmy, however, nothing will keep people quiet. Everyone is so angry,” said Aidarous.
But most activists have not expected a sudden change from the old regime to a new democratic one, especially under military rule. Mohamed Waked of the Revolutionary Socialists movement is not surprised by what is happening. He says, “those who are in power don't care about the revolution demands or principles and this was obvious in the laws they passed—the anti-protest law and parties law—as well as the referendum on only ten provisions of the constitution when the declaration contained 62 points.”
Waked expects a clash between people and the regime, or within political movements, will occur soon: “I think the first clash with Hosni Mubarak was nothing compared to the next one, and signs are appearing—the crackdown on the Israeli embassy protest and the forced dispersion of four protests in Tahrir.” Waked says that “in revolutions, typically the regime is toppled and the revolutionaries take control. It didn't happen in our case. We are not ruling the country; the military, which is part of the old regime, is.”
Amr Ezzat, member of the Association of Progressive Revolutionary Youth, agrees with Waked that the revolutionaries do not rule the country. Yet he is optimistic: “This revolution is different than any other because there is no leadership, and the army is part of the regime and not protecting the revolution. I don't feel that they are conspiring against the revolt; I just think they were put in a historic political test and are improvising. They are not a political body.” Ezzat believes that the anger, worry and panic that young people feel should be used to organize the revolutionaries and unite them around their goals.
Although Ezzat is concerned about those who were jailed by the army, he believes it is natural. “They are facing military trials and the military is more suspicious than ordinary courts. It is ironic that after the revolution people are still being jailed and tortured for protesting or expressing themselves; but just like wars, revolutions have victims,” says Ezzat. He believes we will continue to see detentions and military trials during the transitional phase, until the people elect a government that they can hold accountable.
Poor and oppressed
Many people were detained during and after the revolution. Some were taken from Tahrir square and others were picked up on the streets elsewhere. “Currently there are around 7,000 to 10,000 civilians in military prisons,” said Rasha Azab, an activist with the No to Military Trials group.
One of the major concerns about military prosecutions is the absence of civil lawyers. “People were accused of weapons offences and other crimes such as violating the curfew, and lawyers were not allowed to attend the trial. Human rights activists are concerned about the fact that the military is throwing civilians into military prisons, making it impossible for their families to visit them and depriving them of having a lawyer or the right to an appeal.”
Activist Salma Said of the No to Military Trials for Civilians group believes that people will go to the streets again because their demands were not met, and that they won't be silenced easily. “People are angry and feel tricked by the regime. We don't have the luxury not to be optimistic. We have to keep going. The revolution is not over yet and the regime is not down yet. Nothing has changed; people are still poor and oppressed,” says Said. Her group focuses on three points she believes are essential for the revolution's success: revealing the military's violations, working to uphold human rights and personal and political freedom, and fulfilling social demands such as a minimum and maximum wage.
Forces stealing the revolution
Political analyst and writer Ammar Ali Hassan lists the reasons he believes the revolution is in danger: “First, the revolution is not gathered around one demand like it was before Mubarak was toppled. Second is the false “security problem” intended to scare people and turn them against the revolution. Third, the economic situation is being used as a tool to scare people. Fourth, there is the lack of leadership of the revolution. Fifth, the current government does not represent the revolution in any way. Finally, the main problem is that Egyptians feel the revolution is being stolen from them. The Islamists are too preoccupied with their own interests and the military uses an angry and warning tone when referring to protests.” Hassan adds that while the 1952 revolution was an uprising of generals that the people united around, the 2011 revolution is a people's uprising and if people are not united, there is no revolution.
The way out
Now in most of Egypt's seminars and talk shows intellectuals ask: is the transition from military to civilian rule, and not to an Islamic state, easy? And how far along are we?
Most activists, politicians and intellectuals were calling for a presidential council instead of the interim military council, but now all analysts Ahram Online has spoken with agree that this is not a battle that should be fought now. They believe elections are really needed soon, even if political forces are not yet ready, in order to establish a government people can question and hold accountable, rather than an army that has proved difficult to deal with politically.
There are reasons for optimism. The amazing Tahrir spirit that broke the gender, class, political and religious barriers for over 18 days in January proves that Egyptians can unite and stand for their rights if the revolution demands are not met yet.