Stubbornly high unemployment and a stagnant economy will deal Spain's ruling Socialists heavy losses in regional elections and give them a foretaste of the defeat they are likely to suffer nationally next year Polls show Spain's Socialists are to lose Barcelona and Seville as well as their absolute majority in the Extremadura region they have ruled for decades since Spain returned to democracy in 1978 after the Franco dictatorship. The centre-right opposition Popular Party may also win Castilla-La Mancha in a close vote. The region has one of Spain's highest jobless rates and has become a key electoral battleground after 28 years of Socialist rule. "We need a change, or that's what I think anyway, a change in the economy. We've got to grow in something besides construction," said Ana Maria, a 25-year-old forensic psychology student in Toledo, the ancient sword-making capital of Castilla-La Mancha. Ana Maria, who declined to give her last name, says she has voted Socialist before but on May 22 will vote any party but. Spain slid into recession in 2008, as a housing bubble burst, destroying hundreds of thousands of construction jobs and piling up bad debt at banks. Unemployment has risen to 21 percent, the highest in the 27 countries in the European Union. The economy is still struggling to grow but the government cannot afford stimulus since it is slashing spending to cut the deficit and avoid a Greek, Irish or Portuguese-style crisis. Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has won praise abroad for austerity measures, but his approval rating at home is so low that he decided not to seek a third term in general elections, currently set for March 2012. On May 22, the Popular Party is expected to best the Socialists, or PSOE, by six percentage points when all the votes around the country are added up, according to a poll by Metroscopia. That compares with a one-point PP lead in the last municipal elections in 2007. Spain's municipal vote is not always an indicator of which way the next general election will go. However, polls show the PP has a double-digit lead over the Socialists in preference for the next central government, even though PP leader Mariano Rajoy is not popular. "Right now polls show the PP would win an absolute majority in general elections but I think the maximum level of indignation will be hit in May. By March the Socialists can get a better result if they have a fresh candidate and the economy picks up a bit," said Ismael Crespo, political analyst at the Ortega-Maranon Foundation think tank. The PP is expected to make a pro forma call for early general elections after the May vote, although is not seen presenting a motion of no-confidence in Parliament, where it does not have enough votes to win. "The question is whether you will have an early election or not. I don't expect it to happen before next year because the PSOE won't call for one. It needs time to recover, it still has to go through its primary process," said Antonio Barroso, Europe analyst with the Eurasia Group. In the summer Socialists will choose their candidate to succeed Zapatero, prime minister since 2004, with top hopefuls being Deputy Prime Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba and Defense Minister Carme Chacon. Spanish voters do not tend to switch parties, so Zapatero's party is concentrating on boosting turnout by whipping up fear over the centre-right's policies since absenteeism tends to hurt the Socialists more than the PP. "The PP will dismantle benefits and leave them at the mercy of private investment... Only the Socialist Party can block Europe's most rightwing rightists," Zapatero said at a get-out-the-vote rally on Sunday. His campaign message is not reaching some voters disgusted over unemployment and corruption scandals across the political spectrum. "I'm not going to vote. It's all the same to me. There's a general disenchantment... The worst thing is the labour situation. I'm 60 and I'm out of work with 40 years' experience as a waiter," said Fernando Rodriguez in Toledo, where the economy is largely driven by tourism. Spain's fourth biggest city, Seville, has had a Socialist mayor for 12 years. But the PP are convinced they can win back the city, where more than one in four is out of work. "Seville is in a crisis. The impact on unemployment has been enormous and the current government hasn't managed the problem," Juan Ignacio Zoido, PP mayoral candidate, told reporters at a breakfast on Tuesday. Some Sevillians who usually vote Socialist said they were thinking of giving the PP a chance this time. "I just don't know. There are a lot of undecided people right now, because of the economic crisis and because the Socialists have been in power a long time," said 27-year-old Beatriz Zapata, who was laid off from her office job in an architecture firm 2-1/2 years ago.
