BAGHDAD - Iraqi leaders, struggling to form a government after an inconclusive March poll, are travelling around the region to set out their political stalls, forge alliances and to enhance their reputations at home. Despite having almost 100,000 troops in Iraq, Washington has so far been absent from politicians' travel itineraries. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria and the United States have their own favourite to become Iraq's prime minister, Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite Muslim with a cross-sectarian coalition, as they try to limit the influence of neighbouring mainly Shi'ite Iran. That could mean an Iraq more able to resist Iran, the world's fifth-biggest oil exporter and locked in a stand-off with the West over its nuclear programme. Tehran has been a big influence since the 2003 invasion and Shi'ites outnumber Sunnis in Iraq, giving Iran an advantage. But the ancient rivalry between Iranians and Arabs and Iraqis' strong nationalism is going to limit how far Tehran can go in shaping a government, at least openly, analysts said. "I don't think there is a foreign kingmaker in Iraqi politics," said David Mack, vice president of the Middle East Institute in Washington. The Iranians "have their influence, they potentially want a government that will not be threatening to them. But there's a limit. I don't think that they are in any sense able to control matters," Mack told Reuters. The narrowness of the election as Iraq emerges from years of sectarian fighting, has given foreign players a role in Iraq's efforts to assemble a government, with some analysts saying this makes politicians vulnerable to pressure from abroad. "What we're seeing is symptomatic of the weakness of the Iraqi state," said Joost Hiltermann, an analyst with the International Crisis Group in Washington. "The neighbouring states prey on the divisions in Iraqi politics. The situation is very fluid and chaotic because there is no (single) strong player, on either side." The fragility of the post-election security situation in Iraq has been emphasised by an upsurge of violence in Baghdad province this month that has killed more than 100 people. Security forces blame the violence on al-Qaeda militants. Complex political talks at home have been supplemented with a whirlwind of foreign visits by political leaders since final election results were announced on March 26. Allawi's cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition finished first with 91 seats in the 325-seat parliament. Iraqiya, which drew substantial support from Sunni Muslims, was two seats ahead of the State of Law coalition of Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Forming a government demands 163 seats. Since the election, Iraqi politicians including Maliki and President Jalal Talabani have visited senior officials in Iran, a bulwark for Shi'ite Muslims. Leaders have also met there with powerful anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, head of a leading faction in the Shi'ite Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which has close links to Iran. Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the University of London, said Iran had first tried to boost Shi'ite voters' participation in the elections. Now Tehran is trying to oversee a merger between Sadrists and State of Law as the core of a new government. "Clearly it has the most influence of any country in Iraq, much more than the US or Saudi Arabia. Iran has invested a great deal of money and a great deal of time in cultivating their allies in Baghdad," he said. In turn, Qusai abd al-Wahab, a Sadrist leader and head of the INA political negotiations committee, said the Sadrists had visited Iran, Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia. They also have been invited to Egypt, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. "All the neighbouring countries have the same weight for us. We wanted to send a message that we respect them as much as we respect Iran," he told Reuters. Allawi, a former prime minister, has visited Turkey and Lebanon. Other stops on politicians' regional circuit include Syria and the Gulf states. In one high-level visit, Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, an Iraqiya leader, went to Qatar on Monday to discuss efforts to form a government, the presidential website said. Mack, of the Middle East Institute, said politicians were garnering support from foreign capitals as well as boosting their profiles at home as talks to form a government went on. "We're at the stage now where the audience is the other political factions, not simply whether a given political leader had popular support but whether a given political leader can govern the country," he said. Although no Iraqi politician has made a flight to Washington, US officials say they are in touch with all the main parties. "We're prepared to work with whoever emerges," Ambassador Christopher Hill told reporters last week.
