Ukraine's recent presidential election that brought Victor Yanukovych, the Russian ally, to power is an important turning point in Russian-Western relations. Although the elected president won marginally against incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (48.9% and 45.4% respectively), and only about 30% of Ukrainians voted, the official election committee declared him the winner. The European Union and international monitors agreed that the election met international standards. The Kremlin did not repeat the mistake of the last election when it congratulated Yanukovych too early, especially given that Tymoshenko will file a suit in the high court to recount votes in some regions. However, as the elections did not show evidence of fraud or violations or international standards, most probably the elected president will serve the next term. In fact, Russians consider Ukraine and its language as being of a similar origin. The Russian fleet in the Black Sea uses Ukrainian ports and tense relations between the two countries after the Georgian episode made Russia think seriously of building new bases in Abkhazia. Of course the Russian ally will freeze plans to join NATO. As soon as he won the elections, Yanukovych announced that he will develop relations with Russia; he supports the Russian view on building a new security system in Europe and he proposes forming an oil and gas consortium with Russia. Yet he also said that co-operation with the EU is important to his country. In other words, he resolved the problems between his country and Russia before taking the oath. The effect of blocking Ukraine's membership in NATO drastically affects NATO plans to spread eastwards, delaying them from being developed into an international security organisation until two breakthroughs happen. The first is a new US-Russia disarmament agreement. The second is a partnership deal between the US, EU and Russia. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggested a new security system for Europe during the recent European Security Conference, that gives Russia more influence in the states of the former Soviet Union. They also want to have partnership with the US and EU as a bloc formed of these states or at least the four big states of the former Soviet Empire, Russia, Belorussia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Quite simply, Russia holds this card now. The proposed American antimissile-missiles shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, even after-the US froze building it for a while in Turkey and the Gulf countries, is the main obstacle to a new disarmament deal. The spread of NATO eastwards plan is another obstacle despite frequent declarations by Western officials to calm down the second military biggest force. Now, the US has three options: The first is to cancel both plans. The second is to postpone these plans until making a partnership deal with Russia in its new bloc, recognising Russian influence in its vital space. The third is the unthinkable option of accepting the risk of losing war in Afghanistan, due to sacrificing Russian co-operation there. In fact, both the West and Russia are in favour of partnership, but this depends on some other factors. The first of these is the success of the proposed oil and gas consortium that empowers Russia to influence energy supply to Europe. On one hand, the Europeans do not want confrontation with Russia that may affect their welfare. On the other is the Russian need of petrodollars. The second factor is the success of Russia in upgrading its civilian industry, becoming the most important catalyst in the development of neighbouring countries. The third factor is the internal struggle in Russia between the reformists and the old guard. President Medvedev is in favour of reform that gives the economy top priority. Premier Vladimir Putin of the old guard still believes that welfare of Russians should come second to building military power. Another question arising now in Russia is: If democracy succeeded in Ukraine, why will it not succeed in Russia? Until now, the Russian openness is just represented by some more freedom for media, but on democracy and human rights it is still developing. In conclusion, the decision of the US administration will be vital. If it took the path of partnership with Russia as a bloc, a boost for democracy and human rights might happen in Russia. If it insists on building the anti-missile missiles shield, the old guard will have a cause and new wave of tension in international scene may be witnessed. The old guard will have the upper hand and final word in Moscow. In the second scenario, the old guard may stir troubles for the global American strategy and will not let its new bloc proceed. [email protected] Hany is an Egyptian writer, who regularly contributes to the Mail.
