CAIRO - Gamal Mubarak, the 47-year-old son of President Hosni Mubarak, tops the list of contenders to Egypt's top job along with chief of the intelligence service Omar Suleiman and Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, according to a WikiLeaks report which quoted a US cable. However, the cable written by the then US Ambassador to Egypt Francis Ricciardone, said also that Egypt's military could be a "key stumbling block" for any bid by Gamal Mubarak to succeed his father in next year's presidential election. "Cairene conventional wisdom holds that Gamal wants the job, despite his repeated denials to the contrary," Ricciardone wrote in a May 2007 secret cable devoted to the presidential succession in Egypt, released by WikiLeaks. "It is hard to argue that Gamal is not being groomed for the presidency," the cable says, noting his "increasingly robust role" in the ruling National Democratic Party. "Many in the Egyptian elite see his succession as positive, as his likely continuation of the current status quo would serve their business and political interests." But the military elite may think otherwise, the cable suggests. "A key stumbling block for a Gamal candidacy could be the military," writes Ricciardone, who notes that the four Egyptian presidents since the 1952 coup that overthrew the monarchy came from military ranks, including Hosni Mubarak. The issue of succession has triggered passions since 2007. However the issue csme back to the surface after the ruling party clinched 420 of 508 seats in the November 28 and December 5 parliamentary elections. Unlike his father, Gamal was never an officer "and we believe he did not complete his compulsory service," writes Ricciardone. The military could help him along or block his efforts. Two years later Ricciardone's successor in Cairo, Margaret Scobey, wrote in cable released last week that Mubarak is likely to seek re-election next year and serve for the rest of his life. In the May 2007 cable Ricciardone had given a similar assessment.
