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New regional catastrophic war not imminent
Published in The Egyptian Gazette on 10 - 05 - 2018


By the Gazette Editorial Board
Israel's army carried out strikes against Iranian targets in Syria. The Israeli army spokesman said that the strikes were launched in retaliation for 20 rockets fired by Iran at Israeli soldiers based on the occupied Golan Heights. Teheran has remained silent, refusing to comment.
About 24 hours before this alleged first direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran; US President Donald Trump declared the US withdrawal from an international nuclear deal he branded as ‘defective and rotten'.
He said: "The United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, a decaying and rotten agreement that must be renegotiated." After his announcement, Trump signed a presidential memorandum, "reinstating," he said, "US nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. "We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction," he said.
Trump did not stop there; he re-imposed – even broader—sanctions on Teheran and threatened it with dire consequences if it overstepped the line.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani retaliated – more loudly and powerfully. In a speech to his nation, Rouhani made serious hints that his country would step up its nuclear programme and uranium-enrichment – if there were a need.
Risks of a wider regional war appeared to be escalating – systematically. Panic-stricken observers began the countdown for the biggest ever explosion in the region in decades. But, despite the exchange of rants and threats, the alleged biggest explosion is not imminent. Teheran's major partners in its unfortunate nuclear deal will not by any means let things get out of control.
The Iranian, French, British and German foreign ministers will meet on Monday to discuss a compromise, which could help save the nuclear deal.In the meantime, they will work hard to persuade the adversaries to keep cool and maintain self-restraint to help the storm to die away.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said yesterday that French President Emmanuel Macron would speak on the phone to his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani. Self-restraint will have the loudest voice at the end of the day.
Together with China, the European countries are potentially the biggest losers of Trump's heavy-handed economic sanctions on Teheran. If a tragic, new war erupted in the region, those countries would suffer economic and financial losses much greater and more painful than those they are currently trying to offset.
Two years ago when the nuclear deal was signed, European and Chinese investments flooded Iran. Dozens of foreign companies arrived in Iran and signed lucrative contracts for activities in different fields.


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