FRA approves establishment of five new firms for investment fund management, SME financing    Sukari Gold Mine showcases successful public–private partnership: Minister of Petroleum    Egypt's Environment Minister attends AMCEN conference in Nairobi    Egypt considers launching national platform to mobilise green financing for private-sector industrial transformation    Egyptian, Belarusian officials discuss drug registration, market access    Egypt's ARC, Italy's AICS sign deal to boost wheat production    Gold prices edge higher on July 16th    Egypt stocks hit record highs in 2025 as reforms fuel rally: Cabinet    Egypt condemns Israeli strikes on Lebanon, Syria    Syria says it will defend its territory after Israeli strikes in Suwayda    Pakistan names Qatari royal as brand ambassador after 'Killer Mountain' climb    Health Ministry denies claims of meningitis-related deaths among siblings    Egypt's Health Min. discusses drug localisation with Sandoz    Egypt, Mexico explore joint action on environment, sustainability    Needle-spiking attacks in France prompt government warning, public fear    Foreign, housing ministers discuss Egypt's role in African development push    Korea Culture Week in Egypt to blend K-Pop with traditional arts    Egypt, France FMs review Gaza ceasefire efforts, reconstruction    CIB finances Giza Pyramids Sound and Light Show redevelopment with EGP 963m loan    Egypt's PM urges BRICS to prioritise peace    Greco-Roman tombs with hieroglyphic inscriptions discovered in Aswan    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Three ancient rock-cut tombs discovered in Aswan    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt's GAH, Spain's Konecta discuss digital health partnership    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Egypt's Irrigation Minister urges scientific cooperation to tackle water scarcity    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    Egypt's Democratic Generation Party Evaluates 84 Candidates Ahead of Parliamentary Vote    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Cabinet approves establishment of national medical tourism council to boost healthcare sector    Egypt's PM follows up on Julius Nyerere dam project in Tanzania    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



The usual suspect
Published in Daily News Egypt on 06 - 03 - 2012

BERKELEY: Across the Euro-Atlantic world, recovery from the recession of 2008-2009 remains sluggish and halting, turning what was readily curable cyclical unemployment into structural unemployment. And what was a brief hiccup in the process of capital accumulation has turned into a prolonged investment shortfall, which means a lower capital stock and a lower level of real GDP not just today, while the recovery is incomplete, but possibly for decades.
One legacy of Western Europe's experience in the 1980s is a rule of thumb: each year that lower labor-force attachment and reduced capital stock as a result of declining investment depresses production $100 billion below normal implies that productive potential at full employment in future years will be $10 billion below what would otherwise have been forecast.
The fiscal implications of this are striking. Suppose that the United States or the Western European core economies boost their government purchases for next year by $100 billion. Suppose further that their central banks, while unwilling to extend themselves further in unconventional monetary policy, are also unwilling to stymie elected governments' policies by offsetting their efforts to stimulate their economies. In that case, a simple constant-monetary-conditions multiplier indicates that we can expect roughly $150 billion of extra GDP. That boost, in turn, generates $50 billion of extra tax revenue, implying a net addition to the national debt of only $50 billion.
What is the real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate that the US or Western European core economies will have to pay on that extra $50 billion of debt? If it is 1 percent, boosting demand and production by $150 billion next year means that $500 million must be raised each year in the future to keep the debt from growing in real terms. If it is 3 percent, the required increase in annual tax revenues rises to $1.5 billion a year. If it is 5 percent, the government will need an additional $2.5 billion per year.
Assuming that continued subnormal output casts a 10 percent shadow on future potential output levels, that extra $150 billion of production means that in the future, when the economy has recovered, there will be an extra $15 billion of output — and an extra $5 billion of tax revenue. Governments will not have to raise taxes to finance extra debt taken on to fund fiscal boosts. Instead, the supply-side boost to potential output over the long run from expansionary fiscal policy would be highly likely not only to pay for the additional debt needed to finance the spending boost, but also to allow for additional future tax cuts while still balancing the budget.
Now this is, to say the least, a highly unusual situation. Normally, the multipliers applied to expansions in government purchases are much less than 1.5, because the central bank does not maintain constant monetary conditions as government spending expands, but rather acts to keep the economy on track to meet the monetary authority's inflation target. A more usual multiplier is the monetary-policy offset multiplier of 0.5 or zero.
Moreover, in a normal situation, governments — even the US government and those in Western Europe — cannot run up the national debt and still pay a real interest rate of 1 percent, or even 3 percent. Normally, the math of increasing government purchases tells us that a small or dubious boost to output today brings a heavier financing burden in the future, which makes debt-financed fiscal expansion a bad idea.
But the situation today is not usual at all. Today the global economy is, as Ricardo Cabellero of MIT stresses, still desperately short of safe assets. Investors worldwide are willing to pay extraordinarily high prices for, and accept extraordinarily low interest rates on, core-economy debt, for they value as an extraordinary benefit having a safe asset that they can use as collateral.
Right now, investors' preference for safety makes financing additional government debt abnormally cheap, while the long-run shadows cast by prolonged subnormal production and employment make the current sluggish recovery predictably costly. Given the need to mobilize idle resources in the short run in order to maintain productive potential in the long run, a larger national debt would be, as Alexander Hamilton, the first US treasury secretary, put it, a national blessing.
J. Bradford DeLong, a former assistant secretary of the US Treasury, is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau for Economic Research. This commentary is published by Daily News Egypt in collaboration with Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org.


Clic here to read the story from its source.