CAIRO: The arbitrary nature in which former presidential candidate Ayman Nour was released from prison Wednesday without prior notice has led to a flurry of speculation over the reason and timing of his release. Nour's release came about after a decision by the Public Prosecutor Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud on grounds of his ailing health. He was due to be released in June after being imprisoned in 2005 on charges of forgery. Hossam Bahgat from the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights said that while the decision to release Nour was welcome, "it also betrays that the excuse the government used in the face of calls for his release, which was respect for judicial independence, was a false one. Other human rights activists pointed out that there had been numerous motions filed in the past to release Nour on grounds of his deteriorating health and they were all denied. "We welcome the decision and we hope it is an indication that things will change for Saad Eddin Ibrahim and other human rights cases. There is a desire to improve relations with the United States and Western Europe and therefore removing points of tension, Hafez Abu Saada from the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights said. Nour's release has been interpreted in some quarters as a sort of appeasement to the new US administration led by Barack Obama. The Bush administration had repeatedly called for Nour's release; Egypt's refusal to accede led to a frostiness in ties between the two countries. "Washington is part of it but I don't think the case of Ayman Nour overrides issues more important to the US administration like having Egypt as an ally in regional politics, said Diaa Rashwan from Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. "It seems to be a decision that has more to do with internal affairs than foreign pressure. His release came at a time when there was no direct pressure from abroad calling for his release, he added. Whether Nour's release would be a precursor to a further softening of the regime's approach towards its opponents is also something that remains to be seen. "I think the release is related to Nour alone and no one else, said Deputy Head of the Muslim Brotherhood Mohammed Habib. "What we are seeing in the way of constitutional amendments and military courts, he added, "the imprisonment of Magdi Hussein and Mohammed Khayrat El Shater, is an attempt to remove the Brotherhood from all political stages and forging student and labor elections shows we are against an oppressive regime which has all the power. Bahgat said, "We don't think this will have any impact on other cases, this is an isolated decision in an exceptionally high profile case and we don't think it signifies a new policy by the regime in the areas of democracy and human rights. Rashwan believed that a deal had been struck for the release to go through, a claim that Nour denied the night he was let go. "Ayman is a man who makes deals, he has always made deals in politics, so I think part of the reason for the release was due to an arrangement of some kind, Rashwan said. "Rest assured that the regime would never release him if they felt he would be a threat. There is no reason for them to release Nour at this time with all these strikes and the recent events in Gaza and they wouldn't have released him unless they were sure he would not pose a threat, he added.
