JERUSALEM: The second Netanyahu government's composition, size and initial policy statements do not augur well for positive movement on the critical peace front. As international pressure mounts, progress today depends as much on the nature and vitality of the political opposition in Israel as on the orientations and actions of the new coalition. Tzipi Livni and Kadima are set to be a vigilant and vocal counterpoint to the incoming government. But, as in the past, this official opposition does not offer a comprehensive alternate vision and agenda - which may be developing quietly on the seemingly decimated left. Israel s political history in the last two decades is one of oppositions which replaced ruling parties at the polls but failed to provide real alternatives. This is likely to happen again. From the moment Tzipi Livni realized that Kadima under her stewardship had simultaneously won the elections and lost its power, she has positioned herself forcefully as the likely successor to the incoming prime minister. Rhetorically, Kadima will take advantage of every opportunity to throw barbs at Netanyahu s inconsistencies, his judgment and, increasingly, his policies. Kadima is also gearing up to capitalize on its parliamentary superiority (since 19 of the Likud members are either ministers or deputy ministers, in effect only 8 - including the Speaker of the Knesset - remain to carry out parliamentary duties). If it maintains discipline, the opposition will make the over-bloated government s life miserable - not only by blocking critical policy initiatives and by proposing legislation that contradicts its guidelines, but also by relentlessly pummeling its leaders. The principled and squeaky-clean image that Livni has cultivated in her early days as head of the opposition has already raised her public popularity substantially. If she continues to underline the contrast in substance and style between herself and the prime minister, she may be well on her way to replacing him. But Kadima, however hard Livni tries, does not at the moment provide a substantive alternative to the new government. Although supported by many voters from the left, it cannot by any stretch of the imagination be deemed progressive (an appellation associated with some Labor party renegades, Meretz and perhaps some of the Arab-backed parties). During its three years in office, it used conciliatory language but carried out policies that increased acrimony and intensified the Arab-Israel conflict in frightening ways, orchestrating two wars and continuing settlement development. There is no reason to expect it to pioneer significant change if it does not alter its worldview. This is where progressive forces in Israel come into play. There is a solid, multi-cultural constituency committed to the binding norms of equality, justice, tolerance and respect for the other. Despite the political setbacks it has suffered during the past decades (largely an outcome of its own ideological ambiguity magnified by a generalized sense of fear, frustration and fatalism), the value-driven unifying vision of the left in Israel is even more pertinent today than ever before. In an era of economic turmoil, it holds forth the promise of socioeconomic equity; in an environment of rising bigotry and intolerance, it embraces the equality inherent in diversity; and in a period of spiraling violence and devastation, it affirms the necessity of a just solution to the conflict for all involved. These principles supply the bedrock for the creation of an alternative agenda for Israel. The components of such a programmatic blueprint - which include innovative ways not only to bring about the end of the occupation and transform regional relations, but also to enhance social democracy - already exist. But they need to be sharpened conceptually and galvanized into new political forms. The beginnings of such a realignment are already in evidence. Intensive discussions are taking place amongst the parties on the left both within and outside the Knesset. Civil society groups are coming together to promote social justice and to design workable models of joint living. These activities are, slowly but surely, drawing in some of the large number of disaffected Israelis who consciously disengaged from politics in recent years. These are the first seeds in the creation of a veritable transformation. The volatility of the Israeli political system is such that no government can last for long. There is an unusual opportunity today, through a regrouping from the grassroots up, to bring about not just a rotation at the top, but a persuasive alternative that will assure progress as well. The key to Israel s democratic future - and to that of the region as a whole - lies in the character and direction of the opposition that coalesces today. Dr Naomi Chazan is President of the New Israel Fund and a former Deputy Speaker of the Knesset. This article was written for the Common Ground News Service (CGNews).
