Egypt PM, Japan's JBIC head explore deeper cooperation    Egyptian pound wavers vs. USD in early trade    SCZONE showcases investment opportunities to eight Japanese companies    Egypt urges Israel to accept Gaza deal amid intensifying fighting    Egypt, ADIB explore strategic partnership in digital healthcare, investment    Egypt's PM meets Tokyo governor, witnesses signing of education agreements    Egypt welcomes international efforts for peace in Ukraine    Al-Sisi, Macron reaffirm strategic partnership, coordinate on Gaza crisis    Egypt's Sisi, France's Macron discuss Gaza ceasefire efforts in phone call    Contact Reports Strong 1H-2025 on Financing, Insurance Gains    Egypt, India's BDR Group in talks to establish biologics, cancer drug facility    AUC graduates first cohort of film industry business certificate    Egypt to tighten waste rules, cut rice straw fees to curb pollution    Egypt prepares unified stance ahead of COP30 in Brazil    Egypt recovers collection of ancient artefacts from Netherlands    Egypt harvests 315,000 cubic metres of rainwater in Sinai as part of flash flood protection measures    Egypt, Namibia explore closer pharmaceutical cooperation    Fitch Ratings: ASEAN Islamic finance set to surpass $1t by 2026-end    Renowned Egyptian novelist Sonallah Ibrahim dies at 88    Egyptian, Ugandan Presidents open business forum to boost trade    Al-Sisi says any party thinking Egypt will neglect water rights is 'completely mistaken'    Egypt's Sisi warns against unilateral Nile measures, reaffirms Egypt's water security stance    Egypt's Sisi, Uganda's Museveni discuss boosting ties    Egypt, Huawei explore healthcare digital transformation cooperation    Egypt's Sisi, Sudan's Idris discuss strategic ties, stability    Egypt to inaugurate Grand Egyptian Museum on 1 November    Greco-Roman rock-cut tombs unearthed in Egypt's Aswan    Egypt reveals heritage e-training portal    Sisi launches new support initiative for families of war, terrorism victims    Egypt expands e-ticketing to 110 heritage sites, adds self-service kiosks at Saqqara    Palm Hills Squash Open debuts with 48 international stars, $250,000 prize pool    On Sport to broadcast Pan Arab Golf Championship for Juniors and Ladies in Egypt    Golf Festival in Cairo to mark Arab Golf Federation's 50th anniversary    Germany among EU's priciest labour markets – official data    Paris Olympic gold '24 medals hit record value    A minute of silence for Egyptian sports    Russia says it's in sync with US, China, Pakistan on Taliban    It's a bit frustrating to draw at home: Real Madrid keeper after Villarreal game    Shoukry reviews with Guterres Egypt's efforts to achieve SDGs, promote human rights    Sudan says countries must cooperate on vaccines    Johnson & Johnson: Second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19    Egypt to tax bloggers, YouTubers    Egypt's FM asserts importance of stability in Libya, holding elections as scheduled    We mustn't lose touch: Muller after Bayern win in Bundesliga    Egypt records 36 new deaths from Covid-19, highest since mid June    Egypt sells $3 bln US-dollar dominated eurobonds    Gamal Hanafy's ceramic exhibition at Gezira Arts Centre is a must go    Italian Institute Director Davide Scalmani presents activities of the Cairo Institute for ITALIANA.IT platform    







Thank you for reporting!
This image will be automatically disabled when it gets reported by several people.



Realism about Russia
Published in Daily News Egypt on 07 - 09 - 2008

BERLIN: Russia's strategy to revise the post-Soviet order in what it calls its "near abroad will be pursued with even more perseverance following its victory over Georgia. Europe should have no illusions about this and should begin to prepare itself. But, as the European Union ponders what to do, cold realism, not hysterical overreaction, is in order.
Unfortunately, equating the current situation in the Caucasus with the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 does not attest to this kind of realism. Neither the West nor NATO constitutes the decisive strategic threat facing Russia, which comes from the Islamic South and from the Far East, in particular the emerging superpower, China. Moreover, Russia's strength is in no way comparable to that of the former Soviet Union.
Indeed, demographically, Russia is undergoing a dramatic decline. Apart from commodity exports, it has little to offer to the global economy.
Notwithstanding booming oil and gas revenues, its infrastructure remains underdeveloped, and successful economic modernization is a long way off. Likewise, its political and legal system is authoritarian, and its numerous minority problems remain unsolved. As a result, Russia's current challenging of the territorial integrity of Georgia might prove to be a grave error in the not-so-distant future.
Given this structural weakness, the idea of a new Cold War is misleading.
The Cold War was an endurance race between two similarly strong rivals, the weaker of which eventually had to give up. Russia does not have the capacity to wage another struggle of that type. Nevertheless, as a restored great power, the new Russia will for the time being attempt to ride in the slipstream of other great powers for as long as doing so coincides with its possibilities and interests; it will concentrate on its own sphere of influence and on its role as a global energy power; and it will otherwise make use of its opportunities on a global scale to limit America's power. But it will not be able to seriously challenge the United States - or looking towards the future, China - in ways that the Soviet Union once did.
It is now clear that in the future, Russia will once again pursue its vital interests with military force - particularly in its "near abroad. But Europe must never accept a renewal of Russian great power politics, which operates according to the idea that might makes right. Indeed, it is here that Russia's renewed confrontation with the West begins, because the new Europe is based on the principle of the inviolability of boundaries, peaceful conflict resolution, and the rule of law, so to forgo this principle for the benefit of imperial zones of influence would amount to self-abandonment.
Further eastward expansion of NATO, however, will be possible only against fierce Russian resistance. Nor will this kind of policy in any way create more security, because it entails making promises that won't be kept in an emergency - as we now see in Georgia.
For too long, the West has ignored Russia's recovery of strength and was not prepared to accept the consequences. But not only Russia has changed; so has the entire world. America's neo-conservatives have wasted a large part of their country's power and moral authority in an unnecessary war in Iraq, willfully weakening the only global Western power. China, India, Brazil, Russia, and the Persian Gulf today are the world economy's new growth centers and will soon be centers of power to be reckoned with.
In view of these realities, the threat of exclusion from the G8 doesn't really feel earth shattering to Russia. Europe's disunity and impotence underline this image of a West that has partially lost touch with geo-political realities.
The response to the return of Russia's imperial great power politics has nothing to do with punishing Russia, and a lot to do with establishing innately Western - especially European - positions of power. This requires several measures:
. a new political dynamism vis-à-vis Turkey to link this country, one crucial for European security, permanently to Europe;. putting a stop to Moscow's divide-and-conquer politics by adopting a common EU energy policy; . a serious initiative for strengthening Europe's defense capabilities; . a greater EU commitment to Ukraine to safeguard its independence; . a greater freedom of travel for all the EU's Eastern neighbors.
All of this, and much more, is needed to send a clear signal to Russia that Europe is unwilling to stand idly by as it returns to great power politics.
Presumably, none of this will happen, and it is precisely such inaction that is, in large part, the cause of Russia's strength and Europe's weakness. At the same time, however, one shouldn't lose sight of the joint interests linking Russia and the West. Cooperative relations should be maintained as far as possible.
It is blatantly obvious that for Russia's elites, weakness and cooperation are mutually exclusive. Therefore, whoever wants cooperation with Russia - which is in Europe's interest - must be strong. That is the lesson from the violence in the Caucasus that Europe must urgently take to heart.
Joschka Fischer,Germany's Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998 to 2005, led Germany's Green Party for nearly 20 years. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with Project Syndicate/Institute for Human Sciences (www.project-syndicate.org).


Clic here to read the story from its source.