CAIRO: The Arab Spring swept across North Africa last year, taking with it leaders from Libya, Tunisia and Egypt. Syria is about to descend into full-blown civil war. Why hasn't the government in the Sudan fallen? Last year, the Arab Spring was in full effect when South Sudan seceded from the Sudan proper—and South Sudan took with it 75 percent of the Sudan's primary source of income, which is oil. The south also has the livestock, the agriculture and potential control over water resources, and all of these goodies go into their pocket with the blessings of celebrities like George Clooney, and the military support of western nations. It would appear that Omar Bashir, the Sudan's military dictator of some 22 years, was out-played by his opponents in the south. Bashir did not start the war with the south – he inherited it, but he also escalated it. Bashir has other problems in Darfur, for which he is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Khartoum, even when the oil boom was driving the economy, saw soaring food prices, sporadic cuts in water and electricity, and cutbacks in government services that have already sparked numerous neighborhood protests. Clashes between pro- and anti-government students have taken place on several university campuses in Khartoum and the eastern town of Kassala. Recent uprisings have been brutally and effectively squashed by riot police. Most analysts do not expect Khartoum to have a Tahrir moment, rather, the fall of Khartoum is anticipated as either another coup, or a negotiated removal of Bashir by opposition parties. Sadiq al-Mahdi, head of the Umma Party, has been conducting his own talks with Bashir. Mahdi said he is offering Bashir a soft landing – meaning a negotiated transfer to civilian rule. His plan includes amnesty for Bashir, under which a new, representational civilian government would press the ICC to allow him to stand trial before a Sudanese court. Another player, and former leader of the Sudan, Hassan al-Turabi, once allied with Bashir, but frequently jailed by Bashir, is courting friends in minority opposition parties, like the communists. Turabi, once a hard-line Islamicist, is responsible for having invited bin Laden to the Sudan in the early 90s – the two parted acrimoniously, when bin Laden was dumped on a plane to Afghanistan, after the Sudanese government soaked the jihadist for all they could and wanted to repair relations with the US. Turabi, always the pragmatist, is also said to have brokered the deal that delivered France their most wanted: Carlos the Jackal, and directly from an operating room in a Khartoum hospital. Bashir, stubborn, impulsive and with nothing in his tenure that resembles a long-term policy vision, will not go quietly Sudanese nationals in Cairo told Bikyamasr.com that “the Sudan is not ready for an Arab Spring, but they may have an Arab Summer.” BM ShortURL: http://goo.gl/m54ga Tags: Arab Spring, Sudan Section: Latest News, Op-ed, Sudan
