New England Patriots: Did you know FO projects the Bills to go 5-11, and the Dolphins and Jets to go 6-10? Ugh… Surprisingly they love the Patriots would love to line-up again with the Giants in the Super Bowl. Patriots! Wow! A lot of people on ESPN are projecting this team to win the Superbowl too! I bet it’s all because they did a lot of research on their secondary and line-play rather than just saying “Tom Brady is handsome.†Either way, last season I predicted that the Pats’ front seven was pretty good but that their secondary had taken a ton of hits and that they’d go 10-6 and miss the playoffs despite a decent (though not AS good offense). Then T. Brady went down but everything else was true, their defense was one of the worst in the NFL in giving up big plays despite being a decent overall pass defense (11th, 6th against the rush) because of their pass-rush. Offensively they were good but they took a while to get going, winning something like 6 of their last 7 games wasn’t quite enough to get them in the playoffs. This offseason they were pretty busy defensively, losing DT Kenny Smith, DT Damane Duckett, Richard Seymour Rosey Colvin, Rodney Harrison, Deltha O’Neal, Junior Seau, CB Lewis Sanders, CB Ellis Hobbs (traded), ILB Larry Izzo, Mike Vrabel, and a few offensive players that appear replaceable. In return they picked up Paris Lenon (bad, I think), Brandon McGowan (injury-prone and bad against the pass), CB Leigh Bodden (bad), CB Shawn Springs, and that’s about it… so, I definitely think they lost more than they gained but it’s not like any of the players they lost were in their prime or anything. They ARE hoping very much that James Sanders and Brandon Meriweather can hold it down at safety, and that’s really hard to predict but Meriweather has yet to prove that he’s anywhere near what Harrison was for this defense. It’s possible their secondary has improved but I expect it will be similar to last year, none of their corners amaze me unless rookies Patrick Chung or Darius Butler turn out to be amazing. At LB they have Adalius Thomas and Jerod Mayo, who are good, and then someone named Gary Guyton and Pierre Woods. This is Woods’ 4th year in the NFL and he has yet to be good, I don’t think that’s a stellar front seven in all honesty though they’ve quite a bit of depth so I don’t think it will be embarrassing. They lost their best pass rusher (Seymour) though I agree completely with the trade. They’re obviously hoping that Jarvis Green comes through this season, and he might but he, Wilfork, and Ty Warren don’t seem all that intimidating up front (let alone who they have behind them). I think the front seven got worse and the secondary got patched up a bit. I mean, as much as I think the front seven is worse, I like what they’re doing by building up through the draft, I think next year it should be significantly better with another upgrade or two. The secondary is just being patched up unless Merriweather is amazing, and honestly I kind of doubt that. We’ll see, they let the redskins pass all over them in the third preseason game (which IS embarrassing) though I don’t think Bellicheck gives two shits about preseason. Offensively of course the Patriots are hoping they upgraded at the QB position from a QB who never played at USC to a QB who rarely played at Michigan. The USC qb got sacked a shitton last year but all the pundits (including FO) are saying that that’s because of Cassel sucking rather than the O-line sucking. I find it hard to disagree entirely with that, and I do kind of believe that Tom Brady is the best QB in football. But Matt Light sucks (but is helped by sitting next to Logan Mankins), Dan Koppen is good, Stephen Neal is 33 and LT Nick Kaczur is hardly stellar and is also aging (30). The line wasn’t at all injured last season and still gave up 47 sacks, I’d guess they’ll be significantly better but still mediocre in the run (not that they try anyways). Incidentally the previous year the Pats gave up 21 sacks, which is bad for “really good teams.†I don’t think this is the best O-line ever. Last year the Pats were average in most statistics and I’d guess it’ll be the same this year except the run game will decline and the pass game will improve, more because of attempts than anything else. I’d expect the Pats to be a team that plays quite a few shootouts this season, and any team that can defend the pass effectively will be able to beat them fairly soundly (whereas last year any team that could defend the pass at all would beat them). Fantasy Potential: Moss, Welker, and Galloway seem like reasonable pickups, and possibly Greg Lewis as well. Their RB situation is scary, I think one of them is worth a late pickup and it’s probably Maroney, but health issues AND lack of usage are worrying. Obviously none of them should be picked up particularly early. Their defense should be average. Outlook: 10-6? Maybe 11-5 again? If their schedule is as weak as projected then they may have a good record, make the playoffs, and then we’ll see. Their QB is good enough that I don’t really trust them to lose games they SHOULD lose 100% of the time. They did almost win a SB two years ago against a team that was clearly better than them. New York Jets: Here’s how I began last year’s preview: I just love their offensive line. D’brickashaw and Faneca and Nick Mangold and The Jets should be fun to watch this year. Damien Woody and Brandon Moore is just a great lineup. Tony Richardson is a great blocking FB too. And they did have a great offensive line last season, I expect that to continue again. Their QB play last year, unfortunately, was awful and took 41 sacks with the most INTs in the NFL. That should improve this season even though I don’t really like Sanchez, it’s kind of hard to get worse than Favre. At WR they have Cotchery and a bunch of unknowns (Brad Smith, which is fun, Chansi Stuckey, David Clowney, etc.) but really if you have a QB who has time and a legitimate running threat then I think you can find WRs to catch footballs. If Sanchez can play in the regular season like he’s played in preseason (doubtful) then this team could well have a pretty explosive offense. Defensively I can’t see why they haven’t improved. They’ve brought in a defensive guru for a head coach and they have a defensive line of Kris Jenkins (who was really good last year), Marques Douglas, and Shaun Ellis once he’s de-suspended. I don’t know the first thing about their backups. At LB they have Calvin Pace (susp), Bart Scott, David Harris, and Bryan Thomas – and that’s a really really good front seven when healthy and not suspended. Even their secondary of Kerry Rhodes and Jim Leonhard isn’t bad, with (the really awesome) CB Darrelle Revis and (the now shitty) Lito Sheppard at CB and some reasonable depth at secondary. Last year they were 29th against the pass (9th against the run) because people threw all day against not-Revis’ man but improved CB and safety play could well put an end to that. I think their D-line is worrying but they have good LBs and if their secondary improves like it should, this should be a markedly improved defense with new arrivals CB Donald Strickland, DT Howard Green, DE Douglas, Izzo, Leonhard, Sheppard and Scott. FO says they’ll go 6-10 because of no depth and that they sucked anyways last year (with flukey luck to get to a 9-7 record helped by lack of injury-woes). I mean, I think a team with arguably a top 3 offensive line isn’t going to slip that far offensively and they’ve done everything they can to improve the defense. I don’t see how this isn’t an improved football team, even if they do catch the injury bug a bit. Obviously they need their offensive line to remain reasonably healthy and everything, but they’re even young. I’d guess they’ll start slow as Sanchez learns how to not suck horrendously and their defense recovers from having its entire starting lineup suspended for cheating, they should probably be a formidable team after the first few weeks. Fantasy Potential: tough to really know much about their offense. Sanchez? Cotchery? Smith? I think I like Leon Washington a ton, almost certainly the first back I’d take off this team. He’ll help in the passing game too. I’m curious in their defense, though they may be a year away from being too good. Outlook: Well, they went 9-7 last year and I think they improved. 10-6? 9-7 again? I think they’re better than .500 but not by too much, and they’re “hoping†for too much uncertainty in important positions. But they’ve promise, I’m interested in how good their head coach is. His dad was good and Doug Plank is on their staff. You can never have too many connections with the ’85 Bears on your football team. BM
