Lebanon's Christian regions will see the fiercest competition in this week's elections, Lucy Fielder reports from Metn Billboards have become battlegrounds across Lebanon, but the highway north of Beirut bristles with them. This is the start of the Christian heartlands of Metn, then Kesrouan, two of the few districts where heated competition is expected in the general elections on 7 June. At the Dora junction, the image of a woman in designer sunglasses and orange lipstick, pouting Je vote orange, is ubiquitous. Orange is the colour of popular Christian leader Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, which has arguably led the billboard war in appealing to its largely middle class, youthful support-base. Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces has also campaigned hard for the Christian areas by stoking fears of a win by Aoun and his ally, Shia military and political group Hizbullah. One series of advertisements features photographs of the street battles of last May, when Hizbullah and its allies seized western Beirut and other areas after a government clampdown on its communications network. "Your vote changes the picture," the billboard reads. According to Beirut-based magazine Arabad, politicians and supporters have rented 15,000 "official" billboards for campaigning purposes, not including the gaudily printed mug shots draped from numberless balconies. It estimates the cost of renting and printing these billboards at $15 million. It is the first campaign here to play out through such slogans. During the last vote, in 2005, the main issue was the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri and the subsequent Syrian withdrawal -- the two camps that were to polarise Lebanon for the following four years were embryonic. Now, the anti-Syrian, Western-backed March 14 movement and their opponents led by Iranian- backed Shia group Hizbullah and its mainly Christian Aounist allies, appear to be having a showdown through advertising space. Each side sees this election as fateful: the decisive popularity contest. "I think that this climate of political competition through billboards and through TV advertisements really got started after the Syrian military departure of 2005, because all of a sudden elections mattered," says Elias Muhanna, an analyst who has blogged the campaign in detail. "In this election there's a lot of competition for the Christian vote, and so all of a sudden deploying means of persuading people who are undecided, who may not vote at all, or who are apathetic about politics has become increasingly important." Prior to 2005, elections were mainly decided in Damascus, which would witness a frantic shuttling to-and-fro of Lebanese politicians in preceding weeks. Under the deal brokered in Doha last year, a 1960s electoral law that is popular among Christians was brought back in, partly at Aoun's behest. Carving the districts up into small qada, it ensured that areas dominated by a particular sect vote for their "own" seats under the sectarian system. With the Shia overwhelmingly backing Hizbullah and its ally Amal, and Sunnis expected to largely throw their weight behind Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement, about 100 of the 128 seats will be all but uncontested. So it is largely the Christian areas that will decide who wins the 65-seat majority, with the main competition shaping up to be in Mount Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley town of Zahleh, and Jezzine, in the south, where Aoun is putting up a rival list to his Shia partner Nabih Berri. Many pollsters are predicting a big win for the Free Patriotic Movement, which is fielding 61 candidates. But in Metn, which fields a host of candidates, locals say the race will be too close to call. In Mansourieh, a sprawling, wealthy village in the hills above Beirut, flags of the Phalange led by Amin Gemayel and towering pictures of his son Sami, standing for a seat in this poll, vie with those of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces. Michel Murr, a scion of one of Lebanon's political dynasties who bills himself as "centrist" but is seen by most as floating somewhere between March 14 and President Michel Suleiman, also has a strong presence. If the result of the elections is a tie, such politicians, and Suleiman himself, may end up kingmakers. Mansourieh is a typical Metn village, split between its traditional and civil war allegiances and the newer force of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement. Often this division is generational, with those aged 30 and under adopting the Free Patriotic Movement's mantra of change. Aoun, who fought the Syrians at the tailend of the civil war, returned from exile in 2005. Many young followers see his movement as untainted by the corruption and stalemate that characterised post-civil war government. Although Aoun's surprise 2006 memorandum of understanding with Hizbullah reportedly dented his support, he seems to have clawed back. Many observers have pointed out that his campaign has relied on promises of a brighter, if rather orange, vision of the future, as opposed to the negative campaigning adopted by much of the March 14 camp, which rests largely on portraying the dark alternatives to its staying in power: the return of Syrian hegemony, an Iranian take-over, a slide into civil war, or all three. Few villagers were prepared to make concrete predictions on such a divided battlefield. At his shop, Dany Hajj was already stocking up on extra fireworks for whichever side ends up celebrating. Outside, a stand boasted the flags of all sides -- the lime green of Suleiman Frangieh's opposition Christian Marada, the Lebanese Forces' cedar encircled by a "red line" that was alluded to in many recent campaigns, the Phalange flag and the red of the Communist Party, alongside the Free Patriotic Movement's orange. "We're a shop for all seasons, even politically," Hajj joked. He supports Murr, but said Aounist flags are the biggest sellers, followed by the Lebanese Forces. "It's too close to call," he said. "It's going to be head to head." Barber Maroun Mizher agrees. "The only thing I'm sure of is that the turnout will be high," he said. "Here the competition is between several strong sides, so no one knows who'll win. They're all afraid of tayyar [the Free Patriotic Movement] though, so perhaps that's the strongest." His customer, Farhan Batch, said he had never seen the atmosphere so tense in the village ahead of an election. Mansourieh has already witnessed skirmishes. The convoy of Ibrahim Kanaan was shot at in the village in mid-May, leading to a barrage of accusations and counter- accusations. Last week, three people were injured in clashes in Byblos, a coastal town north of Beirut. "There's a real fear we'll have violence here," Batch said. "It's going to be a real battle."
