So this is my preseason preview 2010. I'm sending it out after the first preseason games, but really most of it was written before that. As a result, there are plenty of inaccuracies or things that I didn't mention in my preview (injuries for instance, or any serious preseason breakouts will probably not be there other than people I guessed about) and there are a few glaring assumptions too (I assume all holdouts will play for their current teams, including the viqueens 80 year old sexual predator cum quarterback). The records are all approximations, I think if you add up all the records of all the teams it adds up to something like 3 games under .500. So, ummm… if my predictions were meant literally then they could not actually happen exactly as I predict. They're meant to be general markers based on what I read as their talent. Philosophically in football I care a lot about line play and try to avoid too much analysis of the skill positions (except for fantasy purposes). I have to say that the Colts have disproven some of the things I believe in, and almost all of the things I want to believe in (ie you win Superbowls with a good defense and a good running game) and in general I probably underrate the importance of the pass and defending the pass in the modern game. I'm a die-hard Bears fan so I know everything about them and with every other team I know what other previews write, what their newspaper writes, and what the stats tell me (and what I remember from watching their games last season). As a result, there'll be things that I DON'T know about other teams that I do know about the Bears (especially backups) but I tried to figure that stuff out and to make guesses as such, and quite frankly I think I know more about these teams than guys like Peter King, whose preseason previews are pretty bad. I think it's also important to point out that I don't really take strength of schedule into account… I have a cursory glance for most teams and that's it at who they play outside of the division. So that every year accounts for a couple of games off here or there even when whatever team actually WAS more or less who I thought they were. I suppose since I'm ripping other previews I should say that I don't think ANY previews are particularly good. Last year I nailed 7 records on the nose, King nailed only one (Bills) and Bill Simmons got three. On the other hand, I was 4 games or worse off on 11 (ugh), compared with 7 for King and 6 for Simmons. So… I mean… I feel like I write these so that I can get a better sense of what happened around the NFL in the offseason, and hopefully share some of what I learned with my friends who read this and then offer some sort of attempt at analysis. More than anything, each section is meant as an argument more than a guarantee for how things will play out… Enjoy! NOTE: This was written ahead of a number of preseason transactions. Baltimore Ravens: So… the Ravens last season were actually pretty good. They had a high powered rushing attack behind a good offensive line and played very solid defense, particularly in the playoffs and towards the end of the season. They basically had one weak spot: the secondary. Already bad, it was steadily depleted over the course of the season due to injuries. Of the 6 teams they lost to over the course of the season, 5 were top ten passing attacks (the two losses to the Bengals being the outlier, who incidentally were a terrible passing attack last season despite obvious weapons. The Ravens did win @San Diego despite allowing 26 points in week two). Ultimately, they lost a hard fought 33-14 playoff game to the colts having beaten the patriots the week before. I think all of that is pretty impressive, but really this is a team that snuck into the playoffs at 9-7 (needing to win a 4-way tie-breaker) and put together a run there with a veteran defense and a good running game. As “the pass” doesn't really appear to be leaving football, one would think the Ravens' offseason would be focused on the secondary. Instead, they brought in Anquan Boldin and drafted TWO Tight Ends. The only addition to their secondary was replacing retired Samari Rolle with Walt Harris, who I personally would argue is possibly the worst cornerback in NFL history to have such a long career. Their offense, as it was, was the 9th highest scoring offense in the NFL and their offensive line is good enough to keep that going provided they remain completely uninjured like they were last season. Also, this season the Ravens will probably be playing fewer strong passing attacks (5 games against last years' top 10), which bodes well since last year they were a top three NFL defense against all other teams. I'd guess they'll make the playoffs and bow out against possibly the colts again. Their defense is almost identical to last year only with Corey Redding and Walt Harris added as backups and 2009 rookies Ladarius Webb, Paul Kruger + 2010 rookies Sergio Kindle and Terrence Cody in the mix now. In a shocking development, their defense is already severely depleted with Foxworth out of the year and Kindle out for either half the year, the whole year, or his career depending on what you read. Their secondary really couldn't afford injuries since it was already so bad to begin with. Really their only hope is that their front seven is so dominant and that Zibikowski + Reed are so controlling in the middle of the field that they can make up for shoddy Corner play. I think that is in fact theoretically possible, particularly if their offense is explosive enough to cover for lots of points given up. But… that the defensive injuries are already mounting is a pretty bad sign for this team. Fantasy Potential: Their offense should be reasonably similar to last year, so a good running attack with an average (18th) passing attack and a good defense. Willis McGahee is still probably going to be their short yardage back, with LeRon McClain possibly filling that role. I'm not convinced Rice will have a better year than last so drafting him too high when they've three backs that their high on is risky. Apparently Rice and McGahee have had excellent camps so far… Outlook: 10-6, a progressively injured defense, possibly less luck injury-wise on the offensive end, and a quick exit from the playoffs. Cincinnati Bengals: So, last year I predicted their defense would suck (6th in ppg) and I suggested drafting Chris Henry high in fantasy drafts. In actual fact, the Bengals' horrible 2008 season was REALLY riddled with injury (3rd most in the NFL) and they bounced back with a young defense that faded over the course of the season (lost 5 of last 6 games) and an average offense. The demolished bad teams and played good teams close. I know I didn't love them in my picks last year, but they were a pretty good defensive team. In the offseason they've not done a ton but they should hope that last years' rookies (who were basically all on IR – Andre Smith, Maualuga, Chase Coffman) will fill in as may Carlos Dunlap. At TE they should have a good competition with Jermaine Gresham and Coffman fighting off veteran Reggie Kelly. I mean, last year doesn't really seem particularly flukish, they had injuries on both sides of the ball and performed quite well, they faded over the course of the season which happens often with young football teams, and their offense may even be improving. They already had a decent run game (9th) and protected Palmer adequately, one can think that their offense would even improve except that I personally don't really love their skill position players. Benson is obviously criminally bad (pun!) and their WRs and QBs are old or named Jordan Shipley – who was awful in college. Quite honestly I'd expect a pretty similar year to last season, which is pretty good. If they could get this team healthy and fit to the playoffs then they could well be dangerous. I dunno, I've nothing to say about this team. They're young with young talent coming up and they appear to have a good coaching staff. I don't see why they would revert back to sucking this season because I even think they have depth at their strongest positions – CB and LB. If Palmer could become a top 5 QB again then they're really dangerous. Regression to the mean sort of implies that they overachieved last year, but I don't really see that that's necessarily the case. They bounced back from a really injured season, and they're super young defensively. I think a fairly similar year to last isn't unreasonable, possibly better if they don't get worse as the season goes on… Fantasy Potential: Their offense has been bad for a long time now, and though they've addressed it I'd be scared of everything up there. I see no reason to think their defense will not be excellent again. I think the knee injury was supposedly a two year injury, so last year was his breakout yeat? Their passing attack wasn't great, I doubt Palmer is a top 5 qb but it's certainly theoretically possible. Worth a gamble in fantasy but I'm not convinced it's the best gamble out there, particularly as it's obvious enough (everyone remembers that Palmer was really good once) that it's not like you can pick up Palmer really late. Outlook: 10-6 again? Cleveland Browns: So last year I thought the Browns had some decent talent on the lines but a bad coach and bad skill players. They kept their bad coach and cut/traded their skill players for draft picks, which wasn't really that stupid. However, at the moment they've a reasonably young offensive line (that was pretty good last year, 30 sacks allowed and 8th rushing attack) and Jake Delhomme as their starter and Seneca Wallace as backup (seriously, I hadn't realized that they were really solving the Quinn/Anderson QB problem by getting Delhomme, that's shocking). The run game is Jerome Harrison and Peyton Hillis, I assume, though keep an eye on James Davis because he's good when Mangenius isn't intentionally injuring him by having him tackled without shoulder pads after practices are over. Well, actually I think that James Davis SHOULD play, but instead it's more likely that Mangenius will play his draft pick Monterrio Hardesty instead regardless of how well Davis performs. The point is that this offense wasn't atrocious last season because of a good O-line (and they brought in help on the right side of the line with Pashos and Lauvuo in the draft), and that should stay the case. I don't love any of their young WRs (Cribbs, Stuckey, Massaquoi, now Engram, and Robiskie (who they are hoping will make the sophomore leap he did in college)) and I think their offense will be average again due to their average skill position players (Ben Watson will hopefully be a huge upgrade over Robert Royal, who had something like 6 catches and 7 drops on the season), as much as I hate analyzing the offense based on skill positions. In saying their offense is “average” given that they were 29th in the NFL (Oakland, STL, Tampa) I mean that they DID have the 8th best rushing attack in football to go with 32nd passing attack. In terms of YPG they were ALSO 32nd, so it's probable that I was overrating their offense a bit, I think their offensive line is not terrible though. At the moment they're saying that Delhomme looks better than any Brown's qb for years (ie “average”), though if they start badly then presumably Colt McCoy will play some. Regardless, they've tried to keep the offensive line solid and will plan on a rushing attack that improves their ability to pass the football, including what they view as an improvement at QB and WR and TE. My Browns' fan friend says their biggest problem is that “the offense is being helmed by one of the least imaginative minds in football, who is in turn being supervised by the least imaginative coach in football.” Defensively they've been a catastrophe even since their flukish good year. They drafted Harden and TJ Ward high in this draft, and with the pickup of Sheldon Brown that should actually improve their secondary quite a bit. However, their front seven is still bad – Sean Rogers will show up fat for training camp like he does every season and will be either bad or on IR like he is every year but contract years. It doesn't help that their two best defensive linemen were BOTH arrested for trying to bring a loaded gun through airport security in the offseason. I expect in a couple years as their young guys start coming through they'll have a chance to improve, but again bad coaching (and bad quarterbacking) can really kill a team. Ultimately their LBs weren't terrible last year and the addition of Scott Fujita, Chris Gocong, and Maiava could mean that their defense is similar but maybe slightly better than last season. They have perennially one of the best special teams units in the NFL and so an arguably improved defense, a theoretically improved offense, and good special teams sounds like something approaching a .500 team. Outlook: 7-9? 6-10? I dunno, last year I got it right basically but I thought they had talent and I think the same thing again but I can't see mangenius figuring that out. Fantasy: If you can figure out who their RB is then pick him up. I don't see why you would pick up anyone else, particularly with Cribbs maybe entering the Hester zone for returns? At RB I have no idea what to think of Hardesty, but they absolutely love him and he'll play ahead of Davis, and probably even start ahead of Harrison due to durability concerns for the undersized back. Could be a good pickup especially they'll definitely be running all the time. Pittsburgh Steelers: Hmm… Well, first of all the Steelers are basically a good enough organization where I don't exactly expect them to miss the playoffs two years running. Last year they lost Polamalu at the beginning and sucked, then were great, the lost at arrowhead to a terrible Chiefs team, lost Roethlisburger for a couple games and sucked and lost to raiders, and then won out to finish 9-7 and out of the playoffs in a pretty competitive division. Their defense was already pretty depleted following the SB year and I think that probably had something to do with it. Still, they clearly weren't all THAT far behind the bengals and ravens who both looked good last season. On offense their line has been bad for quite a while and should continue to be bad, replacing darnell stapleton with Trai Essex at RG, who sucked for 4 years at Northwestern not so long ago. They drafted Maurkice Pouncey in the first round, a pick I LOVED because I think Centers are really underrated so that should begin to shore up what's been a problem for them for a while. But, though offensive lines are important in football, quarterbacks are ALSO important. I'm afraid four of the Steelers' first six games are on the road, 5 against good teams, and that their start will not be stellar unless Roethlisburger can get himself reinstated by threatening to rape Goodell's daughter or something. Their offense already is only average, with a below average qb in B. Leftwich or D. Dixon I imagine this will be trouble. Defensively they were really good last year as long as Polamalu was healthy. This wasn't always, however… but their front seven is really dominant and they (to everyone's surprise) managed to re-sign Casey Hampton, so they'll be strong there. A good defense can win games, but this last year was a team that passed a lot (19th rushing attack), and they don't really have a quarterback at the moment. In a good division it doesn't really look great for them. Fantasy Potential: I don't think anyone is a great pick. Their defense should be picked early and be on the field too much, their WRs may not get the ball, and their run game isn't great. I'd consider Dixon just because I think he's probably better than leftwich. They've got back Anwan Randel El but it's possible that Stefan Logan is a better pickup. He's their PR and KR and has never really featured in the offense, but since they'll be looking for weapons and he'll have a whole year with the team, he could be a nice late pickup that nobody is really looking at. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are what they are, obviously, and once Roethlisburger comes back after 4-6 games out their production could well pick up. Outlook: 8-8 with a better second half of the season than first half Chicago Bears: So the last two years I've predicted the Bears to go 9-7 and 8-8 and instead they've gone 9-7 and 7-9, which is a pretty good record for me. It might help that I refresh chicagobears.com 5 times on most days. Their defense has sucked for a while, particularly their pass defense and most particularly their secondary and they finally decided to do something about it: They brought in a new Defensive End and cut their other two starters despite the fact that both could be had relatively cheaply! Yes!!! Their D-line was bad last year, as was their entire front seven. They've spent a lot of (seemingly wasted picks) time in the draft trying to get later bargains on the line, but henry melton and jarron gilbert don't really appear to be on the verge of breaking through and Gaines Adams might not have been worth the second rounder they spent on him. Basically the hope has to be that Marinelli is able to really teach their young guys and to get the most out of Tommie Harris and Julius Peppers. Their LBs should be good again, Lance Briggs is REALLY good and Urlacher is still good, and they've plenty of talent (Pisa this year?) to pick up that third spot. Still, their front seven was bad last year and replacing 2 DEs with Peppers doesn't seem like it will do the trick. In the secondary they have two good corners (Tillman and Bowman, both of whom get injured chronically) and Corey Graham is ok, and hopefully DJ Moore will be good. At safety they finally patched it up a bit, bringing in Major Wright (third round rookie) and Chris Harris, who they'd gotten rid of a few years ago. The defense was bad against the run (23rd) and bad against the pass (13th) so I guess the hope is that a healthy Urlacher + Peppers will improve the front 7, and that the additions at safety will improve the secondary. I think it's worth noting that Chris Harris should actually bolster the run a bit, he is a very good tackler if completely incapable of covering anyone. It's possible, but they will need their defense to be healthy again, they don't have a ton of depth at any defensive position. Tillman, Briggs, Urlacher and Peppers are the only players that I'd say are even obvious starters regardless of the team… NONE of the players drafted by Angelo since Tillman qualify. Offensively they have Martz. Now, Martz HAS actually been productive everywhere he's been, even if “turnovers” is one of the things he produces most. In Detroit and San Fran his offenses were unequivocally better with him, and obviously the Rams the same. He's got basically an unchanged offense with the same horrible offensive line. Chris Williams now on the left (he may not be terrible), but Beekman, Kreutz, Garza, and Omiyale have been bad for at least two years running. Kreutz has looked like he's lost it, and Omiyale has never played RT in his life – somehow now Mike Tice will turn him into an RT worthy of protecting a QB in an offensive scheme that regularly produces more sacks than any other scheme in the NFL? In turn turnovers will be cut back despite the new scheme and a QB who has ALWAYS thrown INTs? I expect the offense to be a pretty big play attack, they've a ton of speed, a qb with a fucking gun, and the fact that they'll be big play in INTs and sacks only adds to it. As it was last year the Bears were 17th in passing despite “getting off the bus rushing the football” (29th) so… whatever. The only way this team is good is if position coaches like Mike Tice really DO make that much of a difference. They've NOBODY coming up through the draft (unless they randomly hit big on some 5th rounder that nobody knows about) since they haven't had a first or second rounder after 2007. I don't see why this offensive line will be good, I don't see why their defensive line will be 100% better with one new player and no depth, and I don't see why this team is Collinsworth's “team that will be good that nobody's talking about.” Fantasy potential: Everything on their offense. Cutler is going late, Knox is going late, Hester, Aromashadu, Bennet? Iglesias? Forte? Taylor? I think they'll put up a bunch of points … especially cutler and knox. I can't imagine loving their defense in real football, though they tend to be ball-hawks so they may be good at fantasy. Outlook: Ummm…7-9 again? The only way they're actually good is if somehow the coaching staff can make players who have sucked for many years suddenly become good – and that would really be a coaching miracle. Detroit Lions: So, for the sake of amusement, I'll copy/paste from the real Lions' Wikipedia page: “The Lions hoped to redeem themselves after they accumulated an 0–16 record in 2008, the worst in league history, and did so by compiling a 2–14 record.” Regardless, this team's big problem is that for two years in a row they were the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL. To combat this they've had four first rounders in the last two drafts, drafting defensive stalwarts Brandon Pettigrew, Matthew Stafford, and Jahvid Best. Ha ha! I am having a little fun with the Lions, because in fact they did draft a DT and have traded for quite a few defensive players, so that their defense is fairly revamped this year. Their line should be DeVries, Suh, Corey Williams, and Vanden Bosch, of which only DeVries was around last year. At LB they've got Dizon (who may or may not be good) in the middle with Landon Johnson and Julian Peterson on the outside. I mean, that may not be stellar, but it's at least a front seven of people who have shown glimpses of being able to play football before. I'm petrified of their depth, I kind of think I might be called up if someone goes down, but beggars can't be choosers… it's an improvement. The 32nd defense against the pass, however, looks in trouble in the secondary. At CB they have Chris Houston, traded for a sixth rounder to the falcons, and probably Amari Spievy because every corner on this team is awful (Eric King, Dante Wesley, and Jonathan Wade round it out. The best player among those three is Eric King's father, who was good enough to play professional basketball in Venezuela). At safety they're going again with Delmas, who was disappointing last season though according to football outsiders looks were deceiving, they rated him as one of the best rookie DBs in the NFL, and Marquand Manuel, who also sucked (though they traded a 7th rounder for Ko Simpson from Buffalo for depth!). I don't see this team dominating against the pass all of a sudden, even with an improved front 7. Of course, if you believe FO that Delmas is amazing, and you believe their new D-line could be good with decent LBs, there's the possibility for a fairly strong defense, which is of course supposed to be Schwartz's specialty to begin with… Offensively they have some excellent running backs, in order of greatness: Dede Dorsey (who dominated Hard Knocks but has already fumbled in the preseason), Aaron Brown, Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris, and Jahvid Best. Luckily their coaching staff may well see it exactly backwards, but either way since all of them are good they should be fine at the RB position (incidentally, is it a sign of a good coach/gm who picks an RB when that's already their strongest position and they've been the worst team in NFL history over the course of the decade?). Unfortunately for the Lions, despite their talent at RB they were only the 24th best rushing attack in football due to crappy line play (43 sacks too). To solve this problem they signed TE Tony Sheffler because their last years' first round TE turned out to suck. Ha ha I'm kidding again! They actually traded for LG Rob Sims and drafted Jason Fox in the 4th round (good value actually) to eventually replace Backus who has sucked for a very long time. Either way, their line is still bad – they change one player and don't appear to be too focused on the line at all. Their passing attack led the NFL by FAR in INTs (32, FIVE MORE than the Bears! No wonder the Bears brought in Martz to compete!) and all they've done to fix things is bring in more Tight Ends and running backs. Well, and HOFer Nate Burleson for a 5 year contract. I strongly suspect that Stafford isn't great too, but one can hardly blame him for sucking behind that line and with one WR total to throw to. For the record there are people who back Stafford to be amazing, and in their first game he threw two TDs and a pick this preseason so… in theory I suppose he could be ok. Ultimately I think almost ANY qb playing behind a terrible line will be bad, so if his stats aren't great again this year it doesn't necessarily reflect Stafford's talent, though I feel like he still has something to prove on that front as well. Their offense was 27th last year overall (21st passing, 24th rushing) and that seems about right for a team that's always behind and has some talent at the skill positions and no line to speak of. Fantasy Potential: Calvin Johnson is good, but everyone knows that so he'll probably go where he should. Stafford will probably go higher than I'd take him, same for Best (who the Lions LOVE and will probably be much-hyped in the preseason). And why would their defense not be bottom 10 again? Well that's unfair, the defense could certainly be improved. It's their offense that's really worrying but I suppose for lions fans they can think “Stafford + Best = incredible” and ignore their offensive line issues. Outlook: 5-11 and redeem themselves from their 2-14 season of 2009! Green Bay Packers: So last year this defense was number one in the NFL in TOP, number 1 against the run, and 5th against the pass. What I mean to say is that the Packers played a lot of terrible teams last season, because when they played good offenses they gave up 31, 30, 38, 38, 36, and 51 points, setting records along the way for Big Ben, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner. So… I'm not 100% sold that this was the best defense of all time last season, though I believe they set records in the preseason. However, in 2010 they've corrected the problem by getting rid of their best player on defense – Aaron Kampman (I don't like Hawk or Woodson thank you very much… or Matthews for that matter), though he was on IR after week 11 last year anyways. Their defense anyway should be largely unchanged, only possibly more injured this year. They run hard to the ball and managed to hold the lions and browns to a combined 3 points in weeks 6 and 7… which means that they really can stifle terrible teams. I suspect it'll be the same, which could even bode well for the Bears since I expect them to be able to take advantage of the holes in the defense, albeit turning it over anytime they don't score. Other than Kampman every starter is the same and the defense really should be unchanged from the one that gave up 51 in a fucking playoff game. What a terrible team. Offensively they've been a great passing attack for like 5 years running so… that should continue. However, last year they led the NFL in sacks (51) given up (granted many of those were in the first half of the season and I think Rodgers has probably gotten better at playing behind a crappy line, but ultimately this is still an offensive line that gave up 51 sacks and would have been an NFL record had it not gotten better. Their sacks per game over the season went 4, 2, 7, 3.5, 0, 6, 6, 4, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1. So while it improved, the main difference is that they'd already played the viqueens twice though I think Aaron Rodgers was also figuring out how to deal with pressure a little better. I'm not 100% convinced that the line all of a sudden improved, I think they made adjustments to get sacked less, but that the line was still fairly suspect. Incidentally those sack stats were gleaned just from player's box scores, so that's why it doesn't add up to 51… there must be more team sacks and things in there somewhere.), so they replaced the right side of their line with Josh Sitton and Mark Tauscher, who may not be incredible themselves. Their passing attack was still so good that even their rushing attack got into the act and they were 14th in the NFL running the football, overall a pretty good offense. I dunno, in general this is a team that has shown no real ability to protect the quarterback, no real ability to run the football consistently, and an ability to give up heaps of points in bunches on the defensive end. I think last year they skated along with smoke and mirrors a bit against terrible teams, this year I doubt they'll be as able to do that particularly against divisional rivals that are used to them. I actually begrudgingly respect their commitment to building through the draft, and it's paid off with two good seasons in three years. Hopefully they make it two years in four after Rodgers gets injured early on with just getting pounded. Fantasy Potential: Their passing attack is so potent that their RBs are even worth picking up, but generally I don't think there are any hidden gems here. Their defense scares me. Outlook: 8-8… looks like a fairly typical 8-8 team to me. Minnesota Viqueens: So the Viqueens were quite possibly the best team in the NFL statistically last season, and they're returning the exact same starting lineup in 2010. Not surprisingly, they're favorites to win the division. I really only have a couple things to say here. First of all, they were 8-0 at home and lost their last 4 road games straight (against the 10-6 Cards, 8-8 Panthers, 7-9 Bears, and the Saints in the playoffs). Favre may suck outdoors and particularly in the cold. That bodes badly for any Superbowl hopes. The second thing I'd like to point out is that last year they had exclusively EJ Henderson on IR (second year running) and nobody else, and over the past three years are the least injured team in the NFL. A good staff has to play a role, but simultaneously they've gotten lucky, particularly as they're not a very young team. Luck DOES eventually wear out, and we've really yet to see what happens to this team if they're forced to play their backups. That being said, they may well have excellent backups I don't know about – last year I wrote about how the loss of Matt Birk would kill them and then John Sullivan led a line that produced an NFL best 7 sacks and the 8th best team in the NFL rushing the football. The basic complete lack of injuries for three straight seasons really means I've nothing to judge their backups on, so… we'll see presumably. Regardless, last year they had two very good lines, they've had two very good lines for a long time, and I don't really know why they wouldn't again. They haven't been able to defend the pass for an equally long time, and the Bears and Packers would seemingly be able to take advantage of that, though they weren't really last year except for one cold game at Soldier Field. This season I expect a bit of a reversion to the mean – Favre isn't going to post the best passer rating in the NFL, or take the fewest sacks, or be the least injured team in the NFL, or get away with being terrible on the road… but I don't see why they won't beat up on bad teams and be really tough to beat at home. I will pick them to lose on the road in any playoff game for exactly the reason I picked them to lose last year – Favre will fuck up. He's done it his whole career and even in his best season ever he did. Some things (thankfully) never change. Fantasy Potential: Well, they'll be loved like last year, but their offense should be similarly effective. Toby Gerhart would be a nice pickup because I don't see AP getting that many touches THREE years in a row without going down. I am not sure but it's possible that Visanthe Shiancoe's penis is STILL underrated, he is good. Their defense is good and rated as such, and their WRs scare me a bit but will likely be drafted pretty high for WRs. I don't love Harvin even though he'll be going outrageously high. But probably I'm wrong, presumably they'll be using him all the time the way they did last year so he SHOULD get a ton of touches, and ultimately that's all that matters in fantasy. Outlook: 10-6 and the third straight division title. Ugh. Buffalo Bills: So last season I predicted “5-11 and the entire coaching staff fired” for the Bills and instead they got to 6-10 by beating the Colts in Week 17 30-7. That's annoying, stupid Sorgi. Anyways, this year Chan Gailey will be leading a team with Brian Brohm as the starting qb (I hope – open competition between him and Edwards/Fitzpatrick. Awesome). I also wrote this: “According to footballoutsiders “there is a clear correlation between maintaining continuity on the offensive line and having success.” Funny that the Bills have been both bad and have never had a consistent offensive line.” So, in honor of that statement, I'm proud to announce that the Bills DO have some consistency in the offensive line this season… in two positions (center – Hangartner, LT – Demetrius Bell, who sucked and had a ton of penalties before going on IR week 10). The other three positions are all different from opening day last year. So… Either way, their offense last year was awful (28th) regardless of who their offensive coordinator was and I don't exactly see how that's going to change despite them firing one awful head coach and replacing him with a different awful head coach. Defensively the bills were second against the pass, and 30th against the run, (though it's important to point out that they were number 2 in the NFL behind the raiders in rushing attempts against, whereas teams didn't bother passing much on them – they had the 20th most passing attempts against them) which is fun. So they got rid of their two starting safeties (who you'd think were valuable in their top pass defense) and kept their front 7 intact except for getting rid (basically) of Keith Ellison for Dwan Edwards (where you'd think they WOULD want some overhaul. I mean, this is a team with a bad head coach, a bad quarterback (whose name we don't know yet), a (probably) bad offensive and defensive line… I don't really see what's to like about this team except for their receivers, who've been wasted for many years in a row now. Fantasy Potential: I mean, why would you take anyone on their offense? Or take their defense? I suppose if CJ Spiller ends up being the only back on the team then he's a good pickup, though I'm not so sure that the current injury situation will play out exactly that way… Outlook: 6-10 this time I hope to get it right… Miami Dolphins: So the dolphins were really not terrible last season. They somehow managed to lose to the Colts despite carrying 50 minutes of possession, and they lost their first three games and last three games – many in disgusting ways – and could easily have been better than 7-9. All the same, for two years in a row they've had a good rushing attack and not much else. Of their successful 2008 season I wrote “the real problem of last season was probably the D-line” and suggested that doing nothing about their D-line might be problematic. Well, once again they've done nothing, happy to build through the draft and hope relatively unproductive players like Phillip Merling, Kendall Langford, Randy Starks and of course first round draft pick Jared Odrick will be good. It doesn't help a great deal that Merling is already out for the season (replaced by Marquen Douglas) and that Starks has been moved to NT. Though really they may well be, obviously, all have legitimate reasons for hope even though none of them have played at a particularly high level yet (or have never played at all), they have young talent and according to camp reports they're playing well. Jason Taylor may well be a big loss as well. With Porter gone I think I like their LBs less, though Crowder, Dansby, and Koa Misi could also be ok. Their secondary is two young CBs of Vontae Davis and Sean Smith and Yeremiah Bell at S (plus someone else? More unproven young talent?)… All of those players on defense are relatively high draft picks or players who were decent for other NFL teams, and it's hard to know what to make of it, and in fairness to them new Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has a pretty good history of success. Last year their defense was awful (24th against the pass and 18th against the run) and that really killed them, especially when combined with a turnover-prone offense (which as not the case in 2008). They appear to be building their defense largely through the draft but it's been bad for a number of years now and I have a hard time believing that it will suddenly become good – I even might argue it's gotten worse with the exit of a few seasoned veterans like Porter. For the defense to be good this year they need to have done REALLY well in recent drafts. Offensively they're banking a ton on Chad Henne, which I find quite scary. But apart from that Parcells is obviously a big believer in line play and they've two good tackles (long and Carey) and they brought in Richie Incognito for RG. At Center and LG I assume they'll play Grove (who may well suck) and John Jerry (who also may suck and may not even start ahead of Donald Thomas) but… they've had a good running game for a couple years and even though it's largely scheme, I expect that to continue. They gave up 34 sacks last season, and the acquisition of Brandon Marshall alone doesn't strike me as likely to prevent the 19 INTs and 34 sacks… I expect a similar offense to last season. Still, all things being considered, they have a young and likely talented defense with a good offensive line and some talent at the skill positions offensively. If their defense can play close to what Miamians hope for it, this could well be a breakout year for the Dolphins. I find it hard to predict that per se, but really that's just because I don't feel like we know enough about so many of their defensive starters. There's no real reason to predict a huge turnaround defensively, as a result, though if I had to guess I'd say that the defense is one year and 1-2 more players away from really starting to gel and perform at a high level. Their offense could use a competent quarterback, and I really doubt that Henne is that. They appear to have been well-coached so far, and were unlucky to go 7-9 last season. If they were a real 8-8/9-7 team last year, and there's reason to think their defense is better and a more explosive offense with Marshall that could be enough to make the playoffs. Fantasy Potential: I think Marshall IS really good if he gets forgotten about because he is ridiculous enough to like money. Their run game is good, Brown is nice and I think Davone Bess is actually a decent WR pickup, especially in PR leagues. I'd be scared of their defense though I'd definitely think about it late and they do like turnovers. Outlook: 10-6 and in the hunt New England Patriots: So last year I predicted the patriots almost completely correctly, I had them going 10-6 and losing in the first round of the playoffs to any team that could defend the pass (and, for the record, I also whined about how they were espn's favorite to make the SB from the AFC because ESPN is stupid), and I also predicted that they'd be better this year than last. We'll see, I think if they lose Logan Mankins their line will be significantly worse (he's demanded a trade as a restricted FA) because I don't think it was great last season, even though Brady only took 18 sacks. The problem with this offense is that although I don't think their line is particularly good OR that their WRs are particularly good, I do think their QB is good. Last year there were a million articles of the “what's wrong with Brady” variety despite the fact that he took 18 sacks and led the 3rd best passing attack in the NFL (28 TDs, 13 INTs). Under Cassel that same line gave up 47 sacks so… I mean, if Brady can in fact IMPROVE on that two years removed from the injury that will make them a formidable passing attack even though David Patten may well be starting (Welker staring on PUP). He was out of football last year. I dunno, I think Brady is getting old and his mobility will probably be fairly similar to what it was last year, and if he goes down I think this offense will collapse in a pretty major way. As it is, Brady will find openings, they'll spread the field, and they'll be able to mix it up occasionally in the run game though it's not all that much of a threat (12th in the NFL last year). Defensively they lost to the Ravens in the playoffs by giving up 234 rushing yards. Honestly they haven't done all that much to change that, but in the regular season they were average against both the run and the pass (13th and 12th) and did beat the Jets at home so… the Ravens may have been a bit extreme. They replaced Jarvis Green with Gerard Warren at RE but I'm not convinced they have anyone there as good as Seymour. At LB I think one of the big problems is just that they've yet to find a good LB despite lots of attempts. Adalius is gone, Jerod Mayo hasn't developed into a star, they've drafted Spikes and Cunningham now and I think they're hoping that some combination of their young guys turns into a stellar corps for a good front 7. I don't really see why that would happen unless Mayo and Spikes/Cunningham are incredible (I don't love Bunta-Cain or Pierre Woods or Guyton… none were drafted – well above 7th round – or have played well enough to warrant much optimism). The secondary is the exact same minus shawn springs, though Merriweather may be quite good and they have Darius Butler and Patrick Chung on second years with first pick McCourty coming through and maybe could improve? This defense is really young and I think one has to hope that they've drafted really well and if their high picks and young guys play up to hopes they could have a top defense to go with an offense that one ASSUMES will be good as long as Brady is healthy. Last year they were a 10-6 team and I imagine they'll be slightly worse this year, though Bellicheck and Brady are both capable of winning close games they have no business winning. Either way, I expect a similar season to last year. Fantasy Potential: I see no reason to think their passing attack won't be good again. Brady is a top qb. Their defense will probably be top 15 but not necessarily top 10. Welker will probably be great if/when he plays… Though his status is unknown at the moment, he's practicing in pads so I think it's pretty likely that he'll be back in the first few weeks. Whether he'll be full strength is another issue… Either way, if fantasy drafts forget him because he's injured then he could be a bargain, but I'd be scared of taking him as early as he was going last season… Outlook: 9-7 but I wouldn't be surprised if they're better the second half of the season than the first as they gel and when Welker comes back, which sounds like it'll be week one or early on in the season. New York Jets: I'm really excited to write this preview. There's one thing to remember about the Jets before believing all the hype about how incredibly they'll be this year: They secretly kind of sucked last year. They went 9-7 and got to beat up on a failing Bengals team and a Turner-led-Chargers team in the playoffs before getting destroyed by the colts 30-17. They lost twice to the Dolphins, lost to the Jags, Falcons and Bills at home, along with @Pats and @Saints. They beat the colts and bengals the last two weeks of the season because neither tried and eked into the playoffs on tiebreakers, but basically this was a .500 team that played the colts/bengals on exactly the right week. Nonetheless, they were the best pass defense in the NFL (up from 29th the year before!) and had the best run game too. Their problem was that really good offenses could penetrate them (but… I mean… otherwise they didn't give up big plays and WERE actually a good defense) and their passing attack was 31st in the NFL. Being the number one rushing attack and 31st passing attack is REALLY hard to do, it can only happen if your offensive line is so good that it can win against 8 man fronts and your quarterback is so terrible that he can't complete passes despite both time (30 sacks, 9th in NFL) and nobody in the secondary because they're so keyed on the run. They've brought in WRs in Holmes to go with Cotchery and Braylon and I'm sure between Shonne, Ladanian, and McKnight they'll find a RB. The question really is, as far as I'm concerned, just HOW bad is Sanchez? I can't believe it's possible to be the 31st passing attack with the best offensive line in football, but apparently it is and I have a hard time blaming anyone but him. Has he improved, does he just suck? I suspect he's bad, but surely he can't be THAT bad again. On the other hand, can the O-line be that good again? It's essentially the same line except instead of Faneca they'll have rookie Vladimir Ducasse at LG, or possibly Matt Slausen. I imagine it'll continue to be possibly the best line in football actually, and their offense should be essentially the same as last year as a result. If they had a quarterback (Maybe if Sanchez gets injured?) then maybe their offense would be better than 17th overall… Defensively I LOVE the way they play, but I'm just skeptical that it can work. I usually believe that blitzing every down and having an incredible secondary (which with their draft they MAY well have) wears a team down physically so that it's worse by the time the playoffs roll around. It's a theory though, and last year they got killed by the colts but beat the chargers (who were a good offense) the week before so… it's not really like my theory held water last season. They fiddled with the Front 7 a bit, Mike Devito is looking like he'll replace Marques Douglas at RE (I assume a downgrade) but the LBs are the exact same so if Shaun Ellis is pro-bowl quality and Kris Jenkins can NOT be lost for the season then I don't really see why they won't be both good, and ultimately when you blitz 7 you're getting to the QB/RB, it's whether the secondary can cover. Well, Derrelle Revis had something like more balls thrown his way than any CB and still had like the fewest completions against of any CB in the league. He was completely ridiculous. Kyle Wilson and Antonio Cromartie may well fit the other positions, and it's a pretty strong secondary with Brodney Pool brought in to back up Leonhard and Eric Smith at safety. I mean, last year they were a good defense and there is undoubtedly reason to think they'll be as good or better. (I am assuming they will not let the best CB in football hold out for the entire season) The main reason I'm hesitant to join the national press is basically just two reasons. A) they DID give up points some times last season, and I think that can happen with the style of defense they play where if you DO beat the blitz then you can be dangerous, especially on the ground. And b) they really weren't all THAT good last year, so they need to have improved considerably, basically at the QB position and shoring up a few defensive problems. But as a Jet fan I'd be optimistic, and honestly I just love their defense so much that I'm kind of optimistic too. I'd guess they'll make the playoffs more easily this year than last, but simultaneously be less lucky with injuries (I think these sorts of physical teams ARE more prone to injury) and fade late and in the playoffs collapse against a high-powered offense. But despite that prediction, the hype basically seems warranted to me. Fantasy Potential: their running backs. I think touching their WRs would be stupid. Their defense did not get a ton of turnovers last year, surprisingly enough, but is really good. I am obviously assuming that Darrelle Revis plays this season, if he doesn't then who knows what will happen… Outlook: 11-5, would that be good enough to get Rex Ryan Coach of the Year because of how beloved he is? Dallas Cowboys: Ok, so the Cowboys are superbowl favorites from the NFC all of a sudden? I just spent like 10 minutes trying to figure out why and I just couldn't understand. Like, people DO realize that they did not win the Superbowl last year? Or that the reason they did not win the superbowl is that they were beaten 34-3 by the Viqueens, who ALSO didn't win the superbowl? This team has been talented for three years. They went 13-3 in 2007, then in 2008 were amazing statistically that their 9-7 finish led me to write “I kind of think this would have been an 11-5 team last year if it had been coached by someone not retarded.” That they DID go 11-5 in 2009 is hardly surprising, but they are (shockingly) still coached by someone who is retarded. Not only that, they're getting worse, they're aging, and they've had 3 straight years of being one of the least injured teams in the NFL while simultaneously being one of the least deep. So… if when they were unusually healthy they did not come remotely close to a SB, now that they're older SOMETHING must have changed to make them all of a sudden incredible. Let's see. Their defensive line is identical to last season, about whom footballguys' preview wrote: “Depth is a huge concern,” and “this group lacks talented pass rushers.” Obviously since they ARE stacked (and actually kind of deep) at linebacker this isn't the end of the world, but I don't think that Jay Ratliff (who is good), Spears and Olshansky are really the rock of the team. Either way, their linebacking corps of Ware, Brooking, James, and Spencer is really good, and the heart of their 4th against the run, 20th against the pass defense. You'll notice that they weren't a great pass defense, so it's probably a good thing that the only change in their defense is that Ken Hamlin (snapped up by the Ravens) was cut in favor of a battle between Mike Hamlin and Alan Ball, who I assume both suck. Also Keith Brooking is 35 and I kind of think was better last year than he could possibly be again… The defense looks like it'll be awfully similar to last year, though possibly a little worse and its lack of depth could mean an injury just shells them. That's not great, but luckily their offense will outscore everyone, right? Well, the first major changes are on the offensive line… is left tackle an important position? How about if the wiki page for your starting left tackle reads, “Alex is the most penalized player in the NFL.” In fairness, Doug Free may well have the job despite them trading for Alex Barron, but neither are exactly Flozell Adams in his prime, and quite likely not Flozell Adams last year. They'll be playing next to Kyle Kosier, who played last season but also doesn't make me think their left side will be great and this line as a whole gave up 34 sacks last season. Their center and RG and RT are all 32 years old, which is fine and Gurode is one of the best centers in the game (and this team was 7th in rushing, 6th in passing last season) so this is a decent line, but let's not get carried away about all this talent just yet. At the skill positions they're doing fine, Dez Bryant may not fully work out due to injury or maturity but Austin + Crayton + Williams are good and if Bryant is also good all the better. Their RB corps is very talented (I loved Choice out of college, well and Barber too long before that) and Romo is certainly serviceable. I don't think he's a great qb, but he is probably good (and God knows that's already a rarity in the NFL). The problem here is that they've a good offense, and a good defense, and a terrible head coach. They've nothing that jumps out at me as “best in the NFL” and the fact that I think their qb is prone to stupidity means that seasons like 2008 seem possible to repeat themselves where they lost games they had no business losing. In 2009 they had the eagles' number and lost both times to the Giants (I'm not really sure why those matchups worked out that way) and got shellacked by the viqueens… I think this was a pretty averagely good team last year that'll probably be slightly worse this year. What is all this superbowl fuss? Fantasy Potential: They should be a good offense again but I doubt there'll be any bargains, and their defense should be decent but again not really a bargain. Outlook: 9-7, and it helps that their division sucks Philadelphia Eagles: I really don't hate this team come to think of it, their offseason was somewhat ridiculous on paper though. Starters McNabb, Reggie Brown, Chris Clemons, Sheldon Brown, Chris Gocong, and draft picks were all TRADED (and there are never trades in the NFL), most for draft picks, and starters Westbrook, Kevin Curtis, Will Witherspoon, and Shawn Andrews were cut. With Clemons and Brown in particular I may have been taking liberties calling them starters, but all those players were either major starters or important contributors. They had 13 2010 draft picks as a result, and I tend to think that draft picks kick in their second years so it may mean they struggle occasionally this year, but those trades/cuts may well have been smart for the future even if I didn't love their draft. Either way, last year the death of the D-coordinator made them drop to 19th in the NFL (17th against pass, 9th against run) and as he's still dead that's too bad for them because he was good. Their defensive line is the same as last season, with Abiamiri coming off microfracture surgery so Juqua Parker/Brandon Graham battling for LDE and Daryll Tapp in the mix too, along with Cole, Patterson, and Bunkley who really aren't terrible. At LB I don't love Stewart Bradley, who got injured before the season began, and Gaither, Ernie Sims, Moise Fukou, Alex Hall, and Akeem Jordan all kind of suck as far as I'm concerned, but maybe some will pan out, like Sims figuring out how to play football after however many years or something. I'm not thrilled with that linebacking corps, but their secondary of Samuel + Hobbs and Mikell + Demps and a whole lot of youth behind them may well work out ok for them, though there's been criticism of Samuel. I mean, honestly there's quite a bit of consistency in the defense for a team with all that change, and they have enough youth coming through to mix with veterans that it could just work out. They had a lot of injuries on defense last year and were still not that horrendous, and did go 11-5. This defense could be ok, though I'd guess it'll be better next year. Offensively their line is a bit messed up. Jason Peters hasn't lived up to what they paid for him, and Heremans, Cole, Andrews and Justice (who may have become a grown dog at this point) all have talent, probably, but injuries and moving positions and everything meant a bad line last year and it's tough to see all sorts of reasons for optimism with Andrews' brother cut and Justice and Cole starting in possibly not their ideal positions. The 22nd run game in 2009 (and 10th passing) will have to deal with similar issues, I'd guess, to last year. The pass game should be fun though, they've obviously absurd talent at WR in Maclin, Baskett, Avant, and some dude out of Cal. A lot of the previews are really “is Kolb the next Rodgers” and the like, and if Kolb is good enough to not take sacks his WRs are good enough to get open and Reid's offense can be explosive as we know, so really I think if Kolb is really good then this offense can be intimidating. Ultimately this team went 11-5 in a weak division last year and you have to think they'll compete again in a similarly weak division. They have talent on both sides of the ball and offensively their offensive line was injured last season, with some luck they'll be healthier and better this season and Kolb will dominate enough to allow their young defense time to gel. I think this team has a higher upside than the cowboys and even though it's probably likely to be an up and down season, there's certainly reason for hope. Fantasy Potential: I think Kolb would be a nice pickup and maybe Baskett too, depending on who you think their number 2 behind DeSean will be. I don't like their run game much, and their defense would just be taking a total flyer. Outlook: I'll say 8-8 but I'm willing to believe 2-3 games different either way. New York Giants: Wow, the Giants had the 30th best defense in the NFL last season (ppg). They also started the season 5-0 before finishing off the season 3-8. I'm not sure exactly what the reasons for those things are, but the departure of Spagnuolo seems like it had an effect, and they've now brought in Perry Fewell to be their D-coordinator. It's tough to know what to make of them being SO bad last year, and usually I hate to think it's all the coach's fault. They were 14th and 15th against the run and pass, and they were number one in the NFL last season going into week 6 @NO so I don't really get it. On paper their Defensive line basically must be good, in large part because 100% of their money goes there anyways. Tuck + Umeniyora + Kiwanuka + canty + coefield + Bernard + Robbins in some order really has to be getting pressure on the QB regardless of coordinator. At LB getting rid of Pierce appears to just leave nobody really. Jonathon Goff, Gerris Wilkerson, Clint Sintim, and Michael Boley as likely starters seem less than likely to remind anyone of Lawrence Taylor. The NYT seems to think that their secondary will be amazingly improved with Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips (or Deon Grant), and that is in theory possible actually but I kind of think Antrel Rolle was good because of who he was playing next to, so I'm not quite as sold on their secondary as otherwise. All the same, a good defensive line should help create a good defense, and I can't imagine they'll be 30th again this year. The offensive line was injured last season after having spent like 34 straight games together, which probably helps account for the 17th best rushing attack in football. I'd guess that will improve and ultimately this has been a fairly well-run organization for a while. Hixon may be injured but Eli isn't THAT bad, their line is not terrible, and their offense should be able to plug along and beat up on bad defenses again. Last year's second half of the season seems to me like it was somewhat flukish, and I'd guess this team is competitive like they've been for most of the past ten years (I think they have the best record over the past decade of any NFC team). Fantasy Potential: Ahmad Bradshaw may be a decent pickup fairly late, as would steve smith but he'll go earlier than I'd like I think. Their defense will likely be pretty good. I suppose what I'm saying I think is that to me on paper they look really good and I think last year's defensive coordinator was significantly worse than this year's. Outlook: 9-7 in a weak division again? Washington Redskins: So the Redskins really weren't so terrible last year, despite going 4-12. They were 8th against the pass, 16th against the run, and 16th passing, 27th rushing themselves. I mean, that is obviously bad, but you'd think that team could have won 6 or 7 games… Regardless, clearly their defense under Greg Blache wasn't atrocious. As a result, for them, they've kept the defense remarkably intact for new coordinator Jim Haslett. That seems reasonable, particularly since they've tried to infuse it with some youth through the draft a bit, but I don't really understand exactly WHY this defense was decent and I doubt it's sustainable. Their defensive line is some combination of Haynesworth (who is may not play DT and will certainly not be in shape), Kedric Golston, Adam Carriker, Phillip Daniels (37 years old!), and Kemoeatu. I am not remotely convinced that ANY of those players is any good. Coming around at LB should be Andre Carter and Orakpo, who got 12 sacks last year as a rookie and will presumably be able to build on that. But I don't love London Fletcher in the middle or Rocky Macintosh either. Simultaneously in the secondary I think CBs Deangelo Hall, Phillip Buchanon, and Carlos Rogers are all talented underachievers. Laron Landry and Reed Doughty (or Horton) may well be good safeties (particularly Landry) but on paper that to me seems like a pretty uninspiring defense. Well, uninspiring assuming their line is bad, though if Haynesworth is in shape by September and if Deangelo Hall manages to be good enough to be the second corner on this team, it's theoretically possible that this defense isn't terrible. Still, it doesn't really matter much if I think they're good, if they can be a top 15 defense you can't really ask for much more. The past two years they've given up a ton of points largely because of how inept the offense has been, but the defense hasn't been the problem with this team for a while. Under Shanahan and a different D-Coordinator maybe that will change because I don't find this team overwhelming talented, but who am I? Offensively I think they almost certainly have improved. Their line should be first round pick Trent Williams and pro-bowler Jamaal Brown at the tackles, with Derrick Dockery, Casey Rabach, and probably FA Artis Hicks at RG because Mike Williams is out for the season. That could well be a decent offensive line for Portis, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, and Ryan Torain to run through (Is Torain the best RB there I wonder? That should be a fun camp battle). I also think it's important to point out that Shanahan has often produced good rushing attacks when his lines are good, and particularly the tackles are good. So… that really does look promising to me. Last year their passing attack was not terrible, And I think their WRs might not be wonderful and their QB also might not be great, but he has to be an improvement over Campbell. Grossman or Brennan would really intrigue me too at qb if the run game and line hit their ceiling. Either way, overall I like this team's offense and their defense has been good for a few years in a row now. That's cause for optimism, but I kind of think there'll be a reversal to a shoddy defense with a new scheme and same (aging) players and a top ten offense. Fantasy Potential: If you can figure out who their top RB is then he's a great pickup. It seems unlikely that Shanahan rushes two or three RBs because he never does that. McNabb should be a decent pickup but he'll probably go where he should in drafts. I don't love their WRs but I'd guess Moss will be their top WR? I personally would stay away from the defense though I'd understand someone picking them up. Outlook: 7-9, but the ceiling for this team is something that would get me excited if I were a delusional redskins fan. Arizona Cardinals: Good lord this will be a tough section to write, the Cardinals have been terrible for two seasons in a row and have made the Superbowl and Divisional Playoffs in those two years. It has helped that they've gone 10-2 in their division over those two years (both losses to SF last year). They've been bottom half of the league in both rush/pass defense (17th, 23rd last year) for two years running, though they “improved” to 28th best rushing team in football last year from 32nd. Their passing attack was actually only 12th, all of which was somehow good enough for 10 wins. My preview last year wrote “Surely the division won't be as bad as last year” and predicted 8-8 for this team, but the division was basically as bad and they eked into the playoffs again. Filthy. Anyways, this year I think again that surely the division can't be as bad, and the cardinals will have to actually be a decent team to make the playoffs, which includes not resting starters by week 5. I think the offensive line is really important, I'm not convinced Leinart will be able to deal with a bad line as well as Warner could. Still, they're starting Brandon Keith at RT (Leinart's blind side), which isn't great. Deuce Latui or Reggie Wells will be RG, which means they either get a fatty or an oldie. Lyle Sendlein is supposed to be a good center, and the success of their offense certainly suggests that he is. Levi Brown at LT and Alan Faneca at LG could well mean that their rushing attack improves particularly down the left, but this doesn't look like a stellar situation for Leinart to be coming into despite all the talent of his WRs. I don't like any of their RBs to do more than score from 1 yard out, and I don't think 27 year old Leinart will be as good as a HOF qb regardless of how good he can be. This will probably still be a high enough scoring offense, but I think the lack of talent in the run game will come back to hurt them in an improved division. Defensively they were involved in what I consider the most embarrassing playoff game in NFL history, and as such can't really be considered much other than “embarrassing” last year. Their line is actually not terrible though, they got 43 sacks last year and I love Darnell Docket a lot. I don't know exactly who their DT will be (Dan Williams?) but they can pressure the qb. They basically also traded Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle for Joey Porter and Kerry Rhodes, which I don't think is ridiculous given that both the higher priced cardinals were “leaders” of a mediocre defense. I think Dockett and Wilson are the untradeable players on this defense and adding Rhodes and Porter may even be an improvement as far as I'm concerned. Still, in the secondary they have Rogers-Cromartie, Greg Toler, and Trumaine McBride and that is really worrying. I don't see much reason to think this defense will stop being bottom half of the league. Fantasy Potential: Leinart and hightower could be nice pickups if you get them late because people forget about the cardinals. But I expect a dropoff from basically all positions from the past two years. Outlook: 6-10, a two game drop off from an 8-8 team last year. If this team is still good then I think we put this team in the “good organization” and “good coach” category of teams that find people late in drafts and who fans just have to trust. I'm willing to believe Wisenhunt is in fact really good – we'll see… San Francisco 49ers: Man this division is bad, the 49ers went 5-1 in the division last year, and were 8-8 overall. Like the cardinals they seem to think this is fine, and they're returning 100% of last year's starters on offense and defense (though in fairness they'll probably start their two rookie offensive linemen over last year's starters). Regardless, last year they were the 4th best defense in the NFL (scoring) and 22nd and 25th passing and rushing. Here's what I wrote of their offense last year: “Well, they've got a new offensive coordinator named Jimmy Raye who used to be a RB coach and O-coordinator for different bad teams. I wondered whether he'd be less pass-happy than last year's martz operation and actually he's not, he's been nearly dead last in rush yards AND attempts for both the chiefs and raiders when he was there.” Shockingly, the 49ers were second to last in rushing attempts last year, which makes sense with the personnel they have. That's really too bad because if they improve their line they have talent at RB and QB is a significantly less talented position for them. As it is, I expect their offense to flounder again behind crappy qb play and terrible play-calling. It may improve slightly, they're trying to build through the line and I like that obviously, but they still have nobody at the QB position that I think is remotely decent (maybe Nate Davis?) and they pass all the time. Defensively they're young, they drafted Taylor Mays who I liked a lot in college, and have a really nice line with Franklin and Smith (and Sopoaga) and Patrick Willis controlling the field. If Taylor Mays is really good, and I think he can be, then that could boost a defense that was 21st against the pass last year (6th against the run). As good as the defense was last year, it was often against terrible competition so there's room to improve, and luckily I think the 49ers do realize that. I don't like their CBs outside of Clements, but we'll see what happens. I think this is a pretty good defense but the offense will probably keep this team from being good, not that that doesn't mean they can't win the division. Fantasy Potential: I like their defense for fantasy though their CBs aren't great. I think I'm scared of everyone on their offense unless Davis is available, which he wouldn't be. Outlook: 9-7 and surely in the playoffs? Seattle Seahawks: So the seahawks were bottom half of the league in basically every single statistic last season. As a result both of their GMs were immediately hired by the Bears and Titans. Awesome. Incidentally nobody remembers now but this team was WIDELY picked to be awesome last season, FootballOutsiders had them with 10-11 wins. I picked them to go 5-11 because they had a terrible defense and did nothing to improve it – particularly against the pass – and they went 5-11 with a terrible defense. To combat this they drafted Golden Tate and Russel Okung in the first two rounds of the draft this year. I'm kidding actually, because they also drafted Safety Earl Thomas and made quite a few changes on defense, not that any were actually good changes. They downgraded at DE from Daryl Tapp and Patrick Kerney to Chris Clemons and ..uhh… a different DE TBD. The main problem with this defense for both years has been their inept line in all likelihood, and the addition of Aaron Curry alone last year shockingly didn't improve that even though FO thought it would. This year their main changes appear to me to be downgrades, they have no depth whatsoever (their one good season was remarkably injury free three years ago) and their starting cornerbacks were described by footballguys.com as “munchkin-like.” Earl Thomas + Lawyer Milloy could be a small upgrade at Safety over Deon Grant + Brian Russell, but I don't think that was their biggest problem anyway. They've had a terrible line and that'll probably continue this year. Offensively people STILL love Hasselback despite the injuries and terribleness (17 and 15 last year, 15th passing attack despite always being behind and needing to pass). They're happy to try to build through the line, but (like the Bears) bringing in O-line guru Alex Gibbs probably won't make up for a lack of talent though people credit Alex Gibbs for working wonders in his previous job so maybe I'm wrong. We'll see how Okung works out, but this team has crappy RBs, a crappy line, crappy QBs (and I'm all for taking a look at Whitehurst, but did they have to trade a third and fourth rounder for the chargers' third stringer? Really?!), crappy WRs (I don't even love Tate) and above all a crappy coach. Fantasy Potential: uhh… proceed with caution on all fronts, though they'll probably be forced to throw a lot again. Outlook: 4-12? St. Louis Rams: I've loved this team (yes, it's really true) for three straight years. In fairness to me, during those three years they've been the most injured team in the NFL. They've also won something like 5 games total. Last year alone I predicted them to win 11 (they won 1, the first team EVER to follow a two win season with an even worse record). So I am bad at picking this team. All that being said, at least Spagnuolo has COMPLETELY disagreed with my picks for the Rams. At the moment they have a total of three starters from three years ago, and only 9 players on the team that's the same. I think that kind of turnover really isn't great for the team, and means that talent that wasn't performing was just lost – no team has THAT many irredeemable busts. In the Giants section here I pointed out how much worse the Giants' defense was after Spagnuolo left, but it's not like the Rams defense got better (for the record the NYT preview of the rams claims they were 27th or worse in “every key defensive category” so I guess “pass yards against” or “interceptions” wouldn't count as important? Fuck the NYT). I'm not really sure what reason there would be for the defense to get better this year either, other than one believe Spagnuolo is a genius, particularly in second years. For me I think it IS pretty clear that the Giants are worse for having lost spagnuolo, but I'm not wholly sure why the Rams' defense would have been so terrible last year if Spagnuolo were capable of turning things around. I mean, I don't see if the personnel is the same why the result will be different between Spagnuolo's first and second years. Their D-line is basically the same (and has been awful for 2 years) and their LBs were replaced with Na'l Diggs and Bobby Carpenter to go with Laurenitis, which really isn't stellar, especially since Laurenitis wasn't great last year. They managed to keep Atogwe and Butler as safety, with Kevin Payne backing them up. I'm pretty sure that I could suit up and play CB for them though, and I don't think CB was really what they needed to get rid of. I don't think this defense will be good. On the offense they have two young first round tackles (well, 33rd overall counts basically) and everyone else on the offense is either unknown, known to be bad, or named Steven Jackson. But at least they're paying one of those unknowns the most money in the NFL! For once I'll pick this team to be bad, I don't like their offseason at all… probably they'll be incredible. Fantasy Potential: I don't know where Jackson is going, but he IS good and they have two talented/young tackles? I liked Laurent Robinson a lot until he got injured last season, I think he's an excellent waiver wire pick if he's good in week 1. Everything else scares me. Outlook: ugh. 4-12? Atlanta Falcons: Wow, I completely nailed my Falcons preview last year, right up to 9-7 and out of the playoffs (despite them being better than their 11-5 season because that was flukish). Well, this year the NYT is predicting them to make the SB in the NFC so there is some optimism surrounding this team. Defensively for two straight years they've been awful (including the 11-5 year). They improved last year to 10th against the run, though 28th against the pass, 14th in ppg. That's not all THAT bad, and they were really injured (11 players on IR) and they had one of the toughest schedule in the NFL. All 7 of their losses last year were to playoff teams (including two to the SB champs) except for @Carolina, which isn't really ridiculous either. They won basically every game they should definitively have won, and they only lost two games at home – to the Eagles and Saints. So… given that they lost essentially nobody there is certainly all kinds of reason for optimism. Still, they've actually been good offensively for a while now, and awful defensively (in last year's fantasy section I wrote: “Everything on their offense, nothing on their defense”) and this year doesn't look like MUCH will change. Their line of DEs Abraham, Jamaal Anderson (2.5 sacks in three years), DTs Babineaux, and maybe rookie Corey Peters (last years number one Perry being injured and bustish..) isn't great, despite the improved run stopping. Their LBs of Curtis Lofton, Mike Peterson, and first rounder Sean Witherspoon may well make a decent front seven, and obviously their run defense should continue to be solid. But the acquisition of Dunta Robinson (only FA signing) probably isn't enough to fix a secondary that rounds out with CB Brent Grimes, SS Eric Coleman, and FS Thomas DeCloud (is safety important in the NFL?). Since Mike Smith arrived this team has lost to teams that can pass the football and I don't see why that's going to stop this year. Offensively they should be good again (14th and 15th pass/run last year). Matt Ryan is clearly actually good, which is annoying, and their RBs and line are young and probably really good, also annoyingly because most of the line came from nowhere. They clearly can run the football, they clearly can pass the football, and they're young enough where I don't really see any point in thinking that will change. Still, the team is young and may be improving incrementally year to year, despite the worse record I think they were better last year and this year they may again be a playoff team that loses early.. Fantasy Potential: Everything on their offense, rushing or passing. And a crappy defense again. Outlook: 10-6 with a slightly easier schedule and slightly improved side? Carolina Panthers: I was right on with the Panthers last year, though I think Delhomme was worse than even I'd predicted. This team was the 3rd best rushing team in the NFL, 4th best against the pass, 22nd against the rush and 27th best passing attack. That's pitiful, and I think it's pretty easy to blame Delhomme for a lot of it (and indeed Moore went 4-1 last year with the only loss @New England). Incidentally, they were 3rd best rushing (with the first ever tandem 1000 yarders) despite losing BOTH starting tackles (Jeff Otah and Jordan Gross) to IR. If this line stays healthy, they can be really good and take a lot of pressure off whoever their qb is (I think it should clearly be Moore, rewarding him for playing well last year. Or at least better than Delhomme). It's tough to know what will happen in the passing game since Smith is 31, Moore/Clausen is the QB, and Jarett may suck. I'm hoping that Armanti – the Appalachian State QB turns into an incredible WR, but we'll see. Either way, a really good and young offensive line means there really isn't all that much room for their offense to fall. Defensively their line decided to hold on Tyler Brayton, but Peppers, Damoine Lewis, and Ma'ake Kemoeatu are all gone and it's hard to believe that their replacements through draft will be able to do too much. I mean, this team was good against the pass due largely to an excellent secondary, and they kept all but Chris Harris (who I'm willing to believe was in fact expendable… and for the record the Bears have just massive numbers of Carolina panthers cast-offs from the past three years. I'm not sure that's a good sign) so it's conceivable their defense won't suffer but I find it hard to believe that a terrible D-line and mediocre LBs (Dan Connor + Beason + uhh… Jamar Williams?) will be able to produce anything other than a slightly porous defense. The NYT preview of the Panthers is just a huge rant about how they're cheap and deserve to lose, and I'm not sure that that's fair and beyond that John Fox has even been reasonably successful and it IS possible that the defense is average-ish, particularly given that their line was problematic last year anyway. They've a number of draft picks from the past two years that they'll be hoping work out, and with what could be a decent offense I see how a Panthers fan (do they exist?) could hope. But ultimately their front 7 look unlikely to be too great, and in a tough division that's a problem. Fantasy Potential: Ummm… their RBs are both good but I have no idea which one to choose. I think Smith is a nice pick, as is Matt Moore actually provided it's late. And really I'd like to pay attention to the preseason, what if they use Armanti all the time on reverses, qb draws, and screens and such? I would pay attention to him as a possible late pickup… Outlook: 8-8 again? I tend to believe that if you've an excellent offensive line then your offense will be pretty good, and if their defense is in fact “averageish” then 8-8 sounds average to me…. Maybe given the division 7-9 is more realistic… New Orleans Saints: So my preview for last year concluded with “If their line is NOT injured or suspended then they might improve to “average” defensively and make the playoffs.” In fact, their defense was only slightly better than when they went 8-8 (21st against the run, 26th against the pass) but I guess that difference, plus an improved rushing attack, was enough to take them somewhat far last season. And they've brought back close to the exact same team this year, with Scott Fujita basically the only starter leaving – at least the only one that played in the playoffs. I don't really know what to say about this team. For three years they've been a record-setting offense and a terrible defense, and they won the Superbowl one of those years. Last year the defense was terrible but forced a lot of turnovers and it's even conceivable that the ability to force turnovers affected the game against the Colts. Either way, offensively they have opted to have an offensive line that can't pass block and to not care about that because of how incredible Brees is. I think that's a fun decision, and last year it produced the 6th rushing attack in football and by far the best offense in football. As long as Brees is healthy I think it's a lock that they'll have an incredible passing attack, he's only 31 and he's been consistent with this team. Defensively it's hard to imagine them being better than last year despite the addition of Alex Brown. Other than Vilma none of their defensive players should be pro-bowlers (yes, I don't think Darren Sharper a top 3 safety in the NFC) but obviously last year they played well enough and really only Sharper's age (34) would indicate a dropoff. Many of their starters like Sedrick Ellis aren't even noticeably better than their undrafted backups (the other DT Remi Ayodele) so I think they may well be deep even if they're not great with the starters. I think last year was a bit of a magical season with the ability to create turnovers and the saints fell apart in the second half of the regular season (and were injured) but got favorable matchups throughout the playoffs. I think this team is still a 9-7 sort of team until they get a defense, and it's pretty clear that that's not going to be this year. Obviously their offense is so good that they're capable of just scoring on every single possession and winning the game, but I don't think that'll work two years running. Fantasy Potential: the obvious, though Lynell Hamilton may replace Mike Bell. I don't know if the defense can get the second most turnovers again… Outlook: 9-7, but if they make the playoffs again then obviously a run is always possible with this team. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This team was horrendously coached last year, which doesn't exactly bode well for the future. They had the number 1 and number 4 pass defenses in the NFL the previous two years, and in 2009 they were 10th. Unfortunately, they were 32nd against the run because they didn't focus on defense AT ALL in the offseason – that attention to offense won them 24th and 23rd passing and rushing attacks. I mean, two years ago this team should have made the playoffs (lost to the raiders last week of the season at home to get knocked out). Last year they scrapped a good defense and paid attention to the offense, only by bringing in mediocre skill position players. This offseason they remembered that they were bad at the run so immediately drafted two DTs with their first two picks. I'm not really sure there's a “plan,” and it hurts that their owners are bankrupt and their qb is young and possibly terrible (but hopefully great because that would be fun). I don't think they realize that they have talent on the offensive line and could build a real rushing attack because they're too busy focusing on Freeman and the WRs. Defensively they've let the best pass defense go to waste by not building on it at all, and Ronde Barber is 35 and coming off his worst season since his rookie year. I expect the pass defense to continue getting worse and I don't see much reason for the other parts of football to get better. This is a horrendously run organization I think, I can't believe they only won 3 games last season with this much talent. At least the fans don't give a shit – expect blackouts for every home game. Fantasy Potential: Cadillac obviously, I don't see why Freeman wouldn't be the exact same as last year, and ditto for their defense. Outlook: 5-11 Denver Broncos: Wow, so the Broncos have made more roster changes in the past two years than any team in the NFL, including the Redskins. That, combined with drafting all skill positions in the early rounds of the draft (well, three of four) means they're probably really well run, right? I quote that thing by FO often that says that the biggest indicator of a good offensive line is continuity… well is it a good idea to cut your probowl center who has a 130 games in a row streak (at 36 admittedly) and demote your LG to bring in someone you worked with at the Patriots? It's possible it was a good idea, but this was a really good offensive line two years ago and last year there was a dropoff that will likely continue (34 sacks given up, 18th rushing) unless Seth Olsen is incredible, we'll see… It's also funny how quickly possibly the most incredible passing attack in football has been destroyed. From Cutler/Marshall/Royal and a great line they've gone to a mediocre line and Orton/Tebow/Quinn to Royal/Gaffney. That's pretty amazing. I mean, last year they were 13th in passing in the NFL and their offensive line still has Clady and Harris, but the dropoff at WR is considerable (how good will Royal be with Marshall not drawing double teams?) and I think Kyle Orton is still by far their best QB. Orton is serviceable, but he's obviously not as talented (or mistake-prone) as Cutler. Honestly I think one has to think their offense has dropped off a shocking amount from two years ago when it was top three in just about every category. I also think it's funny that they went from having 7 RBs on the roster last season to this one having an injured buckhalter, Knowshon, and then they have just Kolby Smith, Spencer Larsen, Bruce Hall, Lance Ball, and Toney Baker. So… they're just really badly run, going from the best offense in Broncos history to last year to this year is just pathetic really. In fairness last offseason they DID spend a lot of time on the defense, and managed to produce the 3rd pass (26th the year before) defense in football (26th against the run, 12th in ppg, up from 30th in 2008). As any good organization would, they rewarded defensive coordinator Mike Nolan with that remarkable turnaround by firing him immediately (he's now with Dolphins). Also, they rewarded their defensive front line by getting rid of 100% of them. Their new starting defense appears to be Jarvis Green (31, from the Patriots, shocking!), Jamal Williams (who is 34, was on IR last year, and is now on PUP), and Justin Bannan (31, a Ravens' backup DE). So… ummm… the only player there who was a starter before this year is the 34 year old injured one. At LB obviously Dumerville had a bit of a breakout season last year and is really good, which bodes well for the team since he may already be out for the year, and DJ Williams is good with presumably Darrel Reid staying put and Mario Haggan and Robert Ayers fighting out for the last spot. That's not horrendous except for their best player being out, and it was hardly an awesome front 7 to begin with. Shockingly enough they opted to keep their secondary intact, so it's Champ (32), Brian Dawkins (37!), Renaldo Hill (32), and Andre Goodman (32) in the secondary and not a ton backing them up (McBath and Alphonso Smith being 2009 second rounders). So… their secondary may be decent but those ages are not particularly inspiring. I don't love this team. Fantasy Potential: If their line is less injured then maybe Knowshon will have a better year? I think their passing attack could well be ok but Royal will go early anyways and I can't see any reason to trust this team to stick to one QB all season with the second coming of Christ on the bench… Outlook: 6-10 is possible but probably 5-11/4-12 is more likely with some regression defensively… Kansas City Chiefs: So I'm excited about this, for three years the Chiefs have had like 25 first rounders in the draft and is it possible that this year they break out? I'm pretty sure I'm not thrilled about the Todd Haley/Romeo Crennel/Charlie Weiss coaching regime, unfortunately. It's also important to note that the Chiefs were terrible at EVERYTHING last year, it's just a matter of degrees of badness but they were bottom half of the NFL in every important statistical category. So… it would be one hell of a turnaround. I'll say that their offense is in fact fairly talented at this point. Their offensive line added Casey Wiegmann who I think is probably actually good, albeit old (and they have a rookie coming through Jon Asamoah). They also picked up Ryan Lilja from the colts, so a line of Branden Albert, all-pro Brian Waters, Weigmann, Lilja, and Ryan O'Callaghan is actually full of all kinds of potential. With Cassell throwing to Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers and TJ + Jamal Charles running the football, they could have an explosive offense if only an offensive genius were at the helm. I'm genuinely scared of Weiss not having any real grasp of how to use the players he has, but if he CAN do that then this offense could well be way better than 23rd in the NFL like last year. Defensively it looks like Glenn Dorsey may well be busting, and he and Tyson Jackson will basically need to be wildly improved as the DEs this year (last in sacks last season… ugh), with not particularly highly regarded Ron Edwards playing the NT. Their LB corps is equally problematic, with Derrick Johnson being bustish possibly and Tamba Hali, Mike Vrabel, Corey Mays and Demorrio Williams rounding out a corps that really doesn't have anyone too impressive it seems… In the secondary they picked up Eric Berry, who if he hits his ceiling could singlehandedly help turn this team around. Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr are entering their third seasons at corner having been highly touted out of college, if they pull it together with improved line and corner play then perhaps it would work? I mean, at this point the Chiefs unquestionably have a lot of talent and it really comes down to how well they've handled the massive numbers of young draft picks they've had over the past few seasons. It looks to me like their defensive line is atrocious and the team hasn't really handled itself well – did you know that Matt Cassell is the third highest paid QB in the nfl this season? That's ridiculous. Either way, I expect an improved secondary and improved offense but still a team that can't rush the passer and gets gashed in the run game. Fantasy Potential: If you can figure out their starting RB he might be a good pickup late. Everyone else is a big enough name where I doubt there are bargains, though McCluster is certainly intriguing. Outlook: 7-9 I think? They're improved, but too many busts… I think it's important to say that Cassell may well be playing behind a top ten O-line, and if he can parlay that into being a top 10 qb, AND if Eric Berry can be a top 5 safety in the NFL then this team is the playoff powerhouse that FO predicts them to be this season. I think that's a lot of “what ifs” but FO is not stupid, though they ARE often “wrong.” Oakland Raiders: I think popular wisdom regarding the raiders is that as long as Al Davis is at the helm then they will suck (and they've set an NFL record with 7 straight seasons of 11 losses or more, which is actually shocking that they're worse-run than Matt Millen's Lions). For 4 years now they've been a top pass defense and nothing else defensively, and they've been a speedy train wreck offensively. Basically I don't really expect any of that to change all that much, offensively they've a terrible offensive line and McFadden is basically officially a bust at this point (remember when people thought he should go first overall?). They were 21st rushing the football last year and why would that change, except because Michael Bush is awesome? The problem last year was that Jamarcus was playing behind an awful line (49 sacks!) but the thing is that replacing him with Campbell is, I would argue, worse than picking up a project in the draft and letting him show his talent. I'd rather have Jim Sorgi than Campbell, by quite a lot actuallyReally though that may just reflect my preference for backups, particularly those behind top QBs. Campbell has a horrendous win percentage (he's 20-32 as a starter without a single winning season ever because the only good year the redskins had was when he got injured) but in point of fact he's 29, has had a positive TD/INT ratio every single year of his career, he's only played 4 seasons in the NFL and has gotten better in every single season and at this point I think one can unquestionably expect a 63% completion percentage and an 85 QB Rating or thereabouts as a minimum under him. That's actually more or less worth what the raiders gave up for him – a fourth rounder – and maybe even worth more than that, I'm not convinced it's better than an old McNabb. So… maybe we shouldn't be poo-pooing Jason Campbell's offense this season? There's a lot of debate about how much their WRs may be fast busts, but ultimately I think Higgins is actually really fun and if they had a qb who could pass the football it's perfectly conceivable that they have WRs. But… I doubt their offense will pick up much mainly due to a bad offensive line. But obviously raiders fans must have some amount of hope. Defensively they're usually pretty good Seymour + Tommie Kelley is a good base for their line, with Bryant and Shaughnessy probably not quite at that level. Rolando Mclain could well improve their LB corps and my guess is that they'll be good against the pass again and in the bottom half of the league against the run, like every year. I don't care enough to write much more, honestly. Fantasy Potential: I like Higgins, and Bush may get a lot of carries. It's conceivable this is a top ten defense, though obviously should be a backup defense. Maybe we should look more closely at particularly the Raiders' passing game for later rounds? Some of their WRs could well be bargains… Outlook: 6-10, who really cares? San Diego Chargers: This team went 13-3 last year despite being 31st in the NFL in rushing (the Colts were 32nd, isn't it disgusting what the NFL has become? The Chargers are clearly following the Colts' blueprint by passing all day, not stopping the run, and more or less ignoring the run game on either side of the ball) and a slightly above average defense (11th against the pass, 20th against the rush). Basically they've made the playoffs for four straight years by being above average (particularly passing the football) and playing in a shitty division. It looks like their plan for this season is to play in a shitty division and be able to pass the football. Their defense looks like just a stockpile of Bears' castoffs (Antonio Garay, Alphonso Boone and Nathan Vasher being number top backups), which is pretty pathetic. I'm not convinced their defense will be better this year and their line may well be just awful with Castillo, Cesaire, and random DT all being kind of bad now. I do love their LBs because Phillips and Cooper are both actually really good, and they have depth enough to be decent at the other LB positions (Merriman is not good, particularly when it's harder for him to cheat). FO says that Eric Weddle is possibly the most underrated player in football, and him + Jammer + Cason + Kevin Ellison may well provide a decent enough team against the pass, which is obviously all the Chargers care about anyways. Either way, I think their lack of pass rush and the possible dropoff from losing Cromartie could make their defense mildly worse than last year, though everything I read suggests that Cromartie was terrible last season. Offensively I don't see why drafting Ryan Matthews will improve them a ton, their line is still good and they're obviously a pass-first offense. Their line is more or less unchanged, so it IS possible that Matthews brings another level to the offense to improve it a bit, but that wasn't their problem or the reason the Jets ran all over them in the playoffs. I don't see much difference between this team or the team of the past three years, which has never really been particularly dominant. Fantasy Potential: Jackson and Floyd and Gates and Matthews all may well be great fantasy pickups. That's probably it. Outlook: 10-6 and lose in the playoffs – sorry to go out on a limb like that, I hate the “best team in a shitty division” thing… Houston Texans: Wow, the Texans were number 1 in the NFL passing the football last year (and 30th rushing… ugh) and had a top ten defense. That's better than the Colts can claim, I can't believe they didn't make the playoffs. They were fucked by a combination of injuries and by going a shocking 1-5 in their division (wow!). So.. they did ok outside of the division. I'm not sure they necessarily need to change too much and they didn't change anything offensively other than add some depth. They had a lot of problems with injuries last year so I think they're deep enough to sustain some injuries on the line, and this offense really should be very strong this year, I don't think there really needs to be much analysis there. Defensively they were 18th against the pass and 10th against the rush, and honestly if they could improve their pass defense then they could have superbowl dreams. Their front 7 is really not terrible, they've an excellent LB corps (with more than enough depth to survive Brian Cushing's steroids-related suspension) and Williams and Smith can both get to the qb. They obviously need to improve their pass rush to be more consistent, but they're SO young that it's reasonable to think they'll be better this year just by aging and experience. And even then, really, if they had just beaten teams worse than them (like the jaguars) then they'd have made the playoffs last year, they were better than plenty of playoff teams including possibly the one within their division. Speaking of which, it's not obvious that their secondary improved. They basically traded Dunta Robinson for Bernard Pollard at safety, which is probably a dropoff but possibly not the end of the world. Otherwise their secondary is close to the same and they're basically hoping that young CBs Glover Quin and Jacques Reeves become amazing. Ultimately I don't see their defense improving very much, but it really was comparatively middle of the road last year and that they only won 9 games is ridiculous given how talented their team was. If Shaub stays healthy (or if Orlovsky were to be a decent backup) then this team only misses the playoffs with bad coaching and stupid losses, which is what happened last season. Fantasy Potential: Their entire offense again, Shaub maybe a top 5 qb overall? Johnson obviously very high, as with Daniels and probably Walter. Take a RB at your own risk. Outlook: 10-6 Indianapolis Colts: “I basically never like the colts. Every year I think they are all dessert (skill positions) and no meat and potatoes (lines) and I don't think you can eat dessert before you have your meat and potatoes. And every year they [ice] cream the competition with QB-WR play and a suspect defense. I don't get it but I think Bob Sanders is really good at football. One feature of Indy is that they NEVER pick up free agents. This year their only signing was dominic Rhodes to rejoin his old team as backup RB. (the raiders had like 10 FA signings, and many other teams too) Every year they lose people to free agency and I think that means they lost players and every year they have people come up through the system. It might be that the colts are a well-run organization. Nonetheless, there's your grain of salt should you choose to take it. The colts suck.” I wrote that in 2008, copied and pasted it in 2009 when I picked them to go 8-8, and it's still true. Last year they were 24th in run defense, 14th against the pass, 32nd rushing the football and 2nd passing it. Namely, way worse statistically than the Texans, only they went 14-2 and could easily have gone 16-0 and have won 12 games 8 years in a row. Which is actually amazingly ridiculous and I can't believe they only have 1 SB to show for it except for defense winning championships. So… whatever. As always, the Colts lost a member of their offensive line, this time LG Ryan Lilja, and he will be replaced by… ummm… Kyle Devan, whose Wikipedia page says, “prior to joining the Boise Burn of Arena Football 2, DeVan was a substitute teacher.” I mean, honestly this person is starting for the SB champion offensive line and is going to be awesome somehow and I don't know what I'm supposed to do with that information. Their LT Tony Ugoh was benched last season for Charles Johnson, and Mike Pollack was described by the NYT as “a ragdoll.” They never have continuity on the offensive line, they never even pretend to rush the football, their offense is stupidly one-dimensional and they still win football games, it's just stupid. Defensively their ends produce a decent pass rush (34 sacks) and they lost one of their top backups and one of their starting CBs, replacing them with people they've picked up in drafts and who've worked their way up through the organization (notably 2009 3rd round draft pick Jarraud Powers). Sanders will get injured, Antoine Bethea and Kelvin Hayden aren't spectacular, and their LBs (Clint Session, Gary Bracket, Phillip Wheeler) aren't great. Their defense will be bad like it always is. But they'll try to get turnovers, they tend to be good at bending and not breaking, and if push comes to shove they're convinced that playing a zero man front 7 is better than attacking the LOS so they'll just do everything they can to defend the pass. Sort of the anti-Jets philosophy though. Like I said, I think if you can't run the football, can't defend the run, and really can only KIND of defend the pass, then you're not a very good football team particularly in arguably the toughest division in football. The only argument for this not being an 8-8 team this year is that they weren't last year, and that doesn't follow logically because last year is irrelevant. FO adopts the notion of a “flukish” year where a team got some record but it was a statistical aberration rather than something repeatable/sustainable. I would argue that the past 8 years have been that for the colts, they've won so many ridiculously disgusting games (like last year when they lost to Miami by 100 points) that they HAVE to all be gigantic flukes. Plus Tony Dungy is gone so their coach looks like he's dead. This is not a good football team. Fantasy Potential: Whatever Outlook: 8-8 Jacksonville Jaguars: I have to admit, I like this offense. They went 7-9 last year (19th passing, 10th rushing) in a really tough division, and were 7-5 before falling apart at the end of the season with injuries, getting tired, and possibly bad coaching that changed schemes in the middle of the season (and tough competition). But I think they're markedly improved offensively. They have two young tackles that appear to have played well, both were rookies last year (first and second rounders) and so this year one would expect them to be more solid. They have age at center (NYT called Brad Meester “washed up”) but youth coming through and some combination of promising youth or aging veteran (Justin Smiley for instance) should probably produce a better offensive line than last season, which already wasn't terrible. Their pass game is super young too, with Mike Walker, Mike Thomas, and probably Kassim Osgood coming though I don't think it's a given who their top four WRs are, having drafted THREE last year. Either way, Garrard is 32 now (!) and I expect him to be the same serviceable qb he's been, and Luke McCown isn't much of a backup. I think this offense can improve mildly and that makes it somewhat formidable… Defensively the Jags have invested heavily in the line: their first two picks were DTs and their big FA signing was Aaron Kampman to go with former first rounder Derrick Harvey. That could well be a decent line and they've some depth too. Last year they were nearly an NFL record for fewest sacks at 14, but there's all kind of reason to think that might change. Their LB corps isn't even terrible, picking up FA Kirk Morrison from the Raiders and Daryla Smith, Russell Allen (who the NYT fucking LOVE), and Justin Durant are all pretty good and young. That front seven is SIGNIFICANTLY better than last year's front 7. Their secondary may not be great (27th against the pass, 19th against the run) and is basically unchanged from last year. Resean Mathis and Derek Cox are not terrible CBs, but it is conceivable that Reggie Nelson and Gerald Alexander are terrible safeties, which isn't a great thing to be terrible at. As line play was already such a problem for this team last year, fixing that should improve their pass defense as well, but it looks like safety may be problematic and that's annoying when the top two passing attacks in football are in your division… Del Rio CAN make the playoffs with this team, but if he doesn't my guess is he'll be on his way out – he's 57-55 in his career at the moment, which really isn't all THAT impressive given where they started. Fantasy Potential: I think MJD has the same potential as last year, and I like both their WRs as well. Garrard could be a bit of a bargain depending. Their defense is worth a flyer… Outlook: They're better than last year's 7-9, 9-7? That's probably not good enough for the playoffs though, particularly with a weak in-division record. Tennessee Titans: It's sort of hard to understand the Titans' season last year. They went 0-6 against good teams then recovered against mostly bad teams to finish 8-8 with Young at starter. Much weirder is that their secondary went from being top in the NFL with 3 pro-bowlers to 28th without any real changes made except for losing Haynesworth. They still have those pro bowlers but still don't have Haynesworth, but maybe things were clicking the second half of the season anyways… I feel like it's impossible to know. Their defensive line appears to have gotten even worse again with the loss of VandenBosch, and a starting line of William Hayes, Jovan Haye, Tony Brown, and Derrick Morgan seems pretty pedestrian, particularly with Will Witherspoon, Stephen Tulloch, and David Thornton rounding out the front 7. I mean, I strongly suspect that ignorance is part of my problem here, the NYT seems to think it's not so terrible and I don't know much about the players up there other than where they were drafted, so… it's possible the sky isn't falling but otherwise I don't see why this defense was so bad last year. To me it looks like it was a bad defense, and then they lost vanden vasch and keith bullock who were two of their better players anyways. Which to me sounds like it got worse. This team does not have a particularly good record under Jeff Fisher and it's just possible that he's not that great a coach and has lost this team, particularly because of how good they were two years ago when they went 13-3 to go immediately to last year and the seeming lack of potential for this year. Offensively they have a great offensive line, though the (probable) loss of Kevin Mawae may be worse than they think, especially because I certainly trust him to run the offense more than I trust Vince. They continue to have shockingly little talent at WR (maybe Kenny Britt will stand out this year) and a Chris Johnson injury wouldn't shock me at all this year due to his workload and their dependence on him, he had more carries (358) than any other back in football last year, and he had the 9th most receptions or thereabouts amongst RBs…. So… that's scary, he certainly passed the 390 threshold for touches. That would mean lagarret Blount got carries, and that wouldn't be great. Either way, I can't persuade myself that this team is going to be awesome except that I want to like them and want to like Fisher. But… it seems unlikely. Fantasy Potential: I think Johnson probably should be the number one pick since it sort of seems like injury is the only thing that keeps him from being the team's entire offense. I don't see their defense, Britt, or Young being particularly solid bargains. Outlook: 6-10 in a good division… BM
