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Sisi's diplomacy in 2015
Published in Albawaba on 31 - 12 - 2015

One of the key challenges facing Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi was to bring a new sense of direction and order to the country's foreign policy. After the domestic political upheaval of the post-2011 period, during which foreign policy became more influenced by public opinion than at any time in Egypt's recent past, Sisi has sought to replace the impulsive, naïve and often amateurish path pursued by former Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi with one more in keeping with the historical guiding tenets of Egypt's foreign policy. He placed a priority on the strategic alliances with the United States, Europe and Arab Gulf states, with policy formation dominated by the president, in concert with the military, intelligence agencies and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
On assuming office, June 2014, Sisi decided to restore Egypt's global ranking through resetting state's foreign policy. To achieve his goal, he reinforced Egypt's long-standing foreign policy strengths, combining them with greater flexibility and pragmatism. Domestically, it was obvious the state has economically deteriorated for uplift after interim period following the Jan.25, 2011 revolution.
On Jan. 12 Reuters press agency highlighted the successful economic plans of Sisi to help providing the essential needs to the public as quick and sufficient as possible saying that he appears to be succeeding where predecessors Hosni Mubarak and Mohamed Mursi both failed in the delicate task of reforming a system that has drained the state's finances while angering the population.
Amid security threats escalating in the Middle East, Sisi decided to be more concerned about boosting Egypt's army abilities. He succeeded to enforce state's military abilities through concluding several accords with Russia and France, ignoring US, Egypt's arm for decades. He conducted a number of foreign visits in a bid to promote for the Egyptian economy and security conditions.
Since ousting President Mohamed Morsi Aug. 2013, bloody security confrontations erupted in northern Sinai against armed pro-ex-president Mursi, Islamic State-related terror organizations, and the incidents that defamed state's security situation. Leaning on a non-confirmed control over Sinai's terror movements, his foreign visits and activities came to regain international investors' concern and confidence to boost their capitals through several economic spheres.
On Mar.20, the Wall Street Journal had a frank and heart to heart conversation with President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi which described him as Islam's Improbable Reformer, confirming that he gave the world a lesson in the difference between religious devotion and radicalism thus proving he is the world's most significant advocate for Islamic moderation and reform.
Relations with the Gulf monarchies
Sisi had rebuilt Egypt's alliance with the Gulf monarchies, especially its traditional allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), those he fostered ties with before he assumed the presidency during Morsi's period in office, both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had made their displeasure with the Brotherhood plain.
Sisi's election saw Egypt once more welcomed in Saudi Arabia and the UAE and his success in stabilizing the Egyptian economy is in no small measure down to substantial financial assistance provided by GCC states. In exchange, Egypt has supported the Saudi-led coalition's military intervention in Yemen, contributing naval vessels and even suggesting early in the campaign that it would consider the deployment of Egyptian troops in Yemen should be deemed necessary.
Enforcing such ties, both countries announced the ‘Cairo Declaration', a pact signed in Cairo which aimed to boost military and economic ties between both countries.
Russia
Military and political relations between Egypt and Russia witnessed significant improvements after Mursi's overthrow coinciding deterioration in relations between the United States and Egypt. Unlike the US, Russia supported Sisi's actions from the start, including his presidential bid.
He made Russia his first destination abroad as defense minister after being promoted to the rank of Field Marshal where he met with the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Minister of Defense General Sergey Shoygu to negotiate arms deal with Russia instead of the United States.
Putin and Sisi found something in common as Russia suffered a US-EU led economic sanctions, while Egypt's usual allies turned their backs since ousting Mursi.
In February, Putin visited Egypt, the first in 10 years, to discuss with Sisi new agreements that would improve bilateral cooperation in the realms of trade, energy, security, and tourism. The agreements, as well, would procure Russian military equipment, including MIG-29M/M2 fighters, air defense systems of several types, Mi-35 helicopters, submarines and anti-coastal complexes of ammunition.
Most notably, Egypt agreed to establish a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union, joining Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan in the power-projection pet project of President Putin.
Sis's most distinct achievement was a deal during his visit to Russia on Nov.19, between both countries to build the Dab'a nuclear power plant for generating electricity. The deal includes a loan to cash-strapped Egypt, which has considered building a nuclear plant since the 1980s. Under the agreement signed, Russia's state-owned nuclear company Rosatom would build and operate four 1,200 MW nuclear reactors at Dab'a, northern Egypt. Sisi had agreed with Putin that the $20 billion loan would be paid back within 35 years.
Sisi announced that there was a new plan of "renewing and developing" giant projects established by the former Soviet Union. President Putin announced that an agreement has been reached to increase Egypt's supply of agricultural goods to Russia by 30 percent while his country will provide Egypt with 5 to 5.5 million tons of wheat.
On May 8, Sisi visited Russia responding to Putin's invitation to attend Russia's National Day commemorating its victory in WW II. Putin described the visit as reflection of "the special nature" of relations between the two countries.
In August, Russia gifted Egypt a Molniya missile corvette as part of military cooperation between both countries. The naval vessel took part in the Suez Canal inauguration on Aug.6.
The former Soviet Union was the main arms supplier to Egypt in the early 1970s, but the United States took over that role after the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979 at Camp David.
In June, a naval exercise, codenamed "Friendship Bridge 2015", was the first joint military exercise between the two countries.
France
For Egypt, arms agreements were a show of international support for Sisi who wanted to break a US monopoly over Egypt's arms supplies.
Sisi and French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian oversaw the signing of a 24 Rafale jet fighters agreement at the presidential palace in Cairo. The deal came after several negotiations between Sisi and Hollande attended by defense ministers from both sides. The $6 billion overall deal includes three contracts with Egypt - supplying 24 Rafale fighter jets, 2 multi-mission frigate from naval group DCNS in addition to missiles.
Italy
On July, 11, a bobby-trapped car exploded, central Cairo, in front a building related to the Italian embassy with few casualties recorded. IS had claimed responsibility. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi hailed Sisi as the only leader who can 'save' Egypt. Both leaders shared common view regarding many issues, politically as well as economical.
Germany
As Europe's largest economy continues exercising soft power, Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, held off on hosting Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, but eventually gave in. Yet, prior to the G7, a meeting of another sort took place. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has made the fight against terrorism the central policy of his government. Yet, Chancellor Angela Merkel was reluctant to receive the Egyptian leader due to Germany's longstanding aversion to human rights abuses, which have come hand in hand with Egypt's new ruling order.
According to an initial memorandum of understanding was announced in March at the 'Egypt, the Future' summit in Sharm El Sheikh between Egypt and Germany's Siemens, and during his visit to Germany, Sisi signed on Jun.2 an €8 billion contract with Siemens to supply three natural gas-fired combined cycle power plants, each with a capacity of 4.8GW.
Greece, Cyprus and Spain
Most likely that Sisi was keen to gain as more support by European countries to create an equation with some EU countries that opposed ousting the Brotherhood rule. He established a new dimension of cooperation with Cyprus, Greece and Spain.
He held a tripartite summit with Cypriot President and Greek Prime Minister followed by an expanded session of talks on developing relations between their states in the fields of energy, economy and investment. Sisi expressed his gratitude for the Cypriot president's support to Egypt within the EU.
Following his visit to Cyprus, he flew to the Spanish capital, Madrid, in response to an invitation from King of Spain Felipe VI. He also met Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, followed by delegations of both countries where a number of bilateral agreements were signed.
The president's visit to Spain strengthened bilateral relations between both countries in all fields. Spain's investments in Egypt exceeded 700 million euros in gas, cement and railway spheres.
President Sisi affirmed particular importance of Egypt's relations with its European partners in the north of the Mediterranean as part of its commitment to enrich the Mediterranean dimension of its foreign policy, a dimension that the President stressed since his inauguration speech in June 2014 to be the basic services of the Egyptian foreign policy movement.
UK
However, relations between Cairo and London have warmed this year. Sisi visited Britain over receiving an official invitation from the British government. David Cameron's team said that the PM would raise "matters of concern" during the visit.
They discussed defense issues as well as opportunities of investment with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Two Memos of Understanding in security and higher education were signed. Energy, transport and infrastructure projects relevant to the big national projects were also on the talks' agenda.
USA
Sisi's administration also showed unusual actions dealing with the US, calling on Obama's administration to exercise restraint in dealing with "racially charged" unrest in Ferguson, echoing language the US used to caution Egypt previously as it cracked down on Islamist protesters.
Sisi also skipped Obama's invitation to the American-African summit. However, in a 2014 news story, BBC reported: "The US has revealed it has released $575m (£338m) in military aid to Egypt that had been frozen since the ousting of President Mohammed Morsi last year. In August 2015, Secretary of State John Kerry was in Cairo for a "U.S.-Egypt strategic dialogue".
Egypt has stabilized its relationship with the US, although there remains an intangible residue of suspicion. Washington and the EU were critical of Egypt's domestic political environment, especially restrictions on the press and political association, which Egyptian authorities have justified by the terrorist threat emanating from the Sinai. The US is also in need of allies to support its efforts to tackle Islamic State (IS). Sisi pledged Egyptian support for this on the condition that it does not purely focus on IS, but other regional terrorist groups, including those in the Sinai Peninsula.
China and Far East
Sisi held visits to China, Singapore and Indonesia. He met with his counterparts who showed aspirations for warm relations with Egypt. They discussed strategies to strengthen relations between their countries and counter-terrorism efforts.
Sisi said the New Suez Canal project, in addition to the Suez Canal Area Development project and the establishment of six ports, will complement Jinping's initiative to revive the ‘Silk Road' and accommodate the expected increase in maritime traffic. A number of memorandums of understanding were signed on bilateral cooperation in several fields.
An agreement of $100 million with China was signed to help finance small and medium-sized businesses.
China praised Egypt for its leading role in the Middle East, as a cornerstone for security and stability in the region and has expressed its support for Egypt's anti-terrorism efforts.
GERD, a troubled issue
Sisi has sought to engage constructively with Ethiopia and the other upstream Nile states to find an amicable solution to the problem of sharing out the river's water resources. The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement between the Sudan and Egypt entitles Egypt to 55.5 billion cubic meters of the annual flow of the Nile; however, development projects upstream, especially Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam project, threaten this agreement. Egypt is sympathetic to Ethiopia's argument that such projects are necessary to allow its economy to develop, but it will not countenance any agreement that decreases its current share of the waters. In this respect, Ethiopia's declaration in September 2014 that the dam is intended for power generation rather than irrigation may provide hope that Sisi can secure agreement in the future.
War over terrorism
Libya, which suffers a continuous state of institutional collapse and a quasi-civil war, represents a direct threat to the security of Egypt. It seems that President Sisi preferred to distance himself; however, at the same time, he couldn't allow the fire to reach the borders of his country. He decided to reach an agreement with Libya's second major neighbor, Algeria. Algerian-Egyptian cooperation is the only guarantee that the situation in Libya can be controlled and foreign interference can be blocked.
In February, he ordered airstrikes in Libya after fighters pledging allegiance to the Islamic State beheaded 21 Egyptian Christians there. He had repeatedly called for concerted Arab and Western action against what he sees as an existential threat posed by groups operating in Libya and elsewhere.
As for Iraqi and Syrian issues, President Sisi chose to stay away from such cases, except for limited participation in the international declaration against Islamic State. This step helps in the war being waged against armed opposition groups in Egypt and justifies Sisi's right to prosecute the Muslim Brotherhood, especially as the Brotherhood stood against the war on Islamic State.
This alliance has enabled him to reinforce his stance against critics from Western governments in general. In fact, the Americans and the EU have given in to the new reality in Egypt. Finally, they announced that they accept the government in Egypt, withdrawing their previously-stated disapproval.
Several US and European officials have visited Egypt recently amid continuing regional talks to confront the Islamic State (IS). US Secretary of State John Kerry, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and UK Middle East advisor at the defense ministry, General Simon Mayall have all made visits to Cairo for meetings on the topic.
Sisi has also had to prioritize stabilizing the Egyptian economy in an effort to attract foreign investors and tourists. In this he has been helped by the substantial aid provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which has boosted Egypt's foreign currency reserves and restored confidence that the worst of the economic crisis has passed.
Does President Sisi really want to change history for the third time? The first time was when late President Nasser shifted to supporting the Soviet Union against the American camp, via the Czech arms deal. The second was when late President Sadat expelled Soviet experts from Egypt and restored positive relations with the Americans. Is it a fundamental policy towards Moscow, or simply, a calculated move to serve temporary needs?
All of this means that Sisi has restored the traditional guiding tenets of Egyptian foreign policy while adapting them to the challenges Egypt currently faces. Future success will depend much on the continued improvement of the economy, tangible signs of an improvement in the security situation, particularly in the Sinai and the return of Egypt's reputation as a major pragmatic, moderate power, able to exert influence across the region in the way it did prior to 2011.


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