Africa is awaiting many critical issues during 2015 which should be addressed by more than one billion people living in the continent. Experts and colleagues of the "Brookings Africa Growth Initiative" warned that the year 2015 will be an eventful one for Africa and identified a group of issues, from elections to the post-2015 development agenda, which people must pay attention to, in the continent this coming year. The main issues identified by the experts included the following: The 2015 Elections, The Sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the western military involvement in Africa, the development agenda of the continent in 2015, and the reforms of the African Union. The security challenge is always a main concern facing the African continent especially the many countries are expecting violence during the electoral process, extremism and political fights. Therefore Brookings experts warned that these events will undermine economic growth, slow or even halt investment, jeopardize the welfare of its citizens, contribute to famine, create regional instability, and destabilize governments and public institutions. They also threaten Western interests by fostering instability that enables the spread of extremism, with the "underwear bomber" of Nigerian origin in 2009 serving as an early warning sign of what could emerge from the region. Yet extremist violence is only one dynamic among the multitude of factors influencing the security landscape of the continent. However, the experts noted that While Africa is clearly faced by many and diverse violent conflicts, it is making some key improvements. In fact, reflecting on the developments in 2014, it is clear that the challenges for 2015 are not necessarily in responding to cataclysmic situations, but in building on its recent peacekeeping progress—for example, in Somalia, where AU forces have cleared al-Shabab insurgents from Mogadishu and other strategic areas. With the development and strengthening of African Union forces, especially the full implementation of the AU's African Standby Force (ASF) in 2015, the AU will be capable of targeting acute threats in specific places, precluding an escalation to more serious and widespread forms of conflict. Peace building interventions by regional organizations such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in South Sudan also hold promise for more African solutions to African problems, often legitimizing interventions and making resolutions more acceptable to the parties involved. As noted above, extremism is just one factor contributing to some of the myriad of violent conflicts on the continent. Many conflicts in Africa have stemmed from longstanding issues of political, economic and social marginalization as well as systemic inequalities and historical grievances between identity groups. In addition, weak institutions fail to protect individuals and preserve the rule of law while widespread poverty leaves many citizens without hope and feeling they have little resort but violence. Increasingly, we are seeing dictators attempting to manipulate political systems to extend their stays in power, inflaming tensions with desperate citizens whose uprisings could turn violent. However, Brookings found that many good things are happening in Africa. Democracy is spreading, as are strong economic trends, with about half the continent's nations enjoying favorable developments in both democratic governance and economic growth. Africans are also taking charge of their own security much more than ever before. Meanwhile, Brookings experts also pointed the fact that 2015 is a pivotal year for Obama's Africa legacy. They said that the next 12 months will determine whether President Obama will fulfill the tremendous promise of his presidency as it concerns U.S. policy toward the continent. No administration has done more to move trade and investment to the forefront of U.S. engagement in Africa than the current one, though President Clinton's African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) initially introduced trade as a key stimulus for economic development in the region. In light of these developments, Brookings experts advised African governments and organizations should prioritize the following in their 2015 security agenda: A fully operational African Standby Force that would enable the AU to respond to localized crises that might balloon into more serious conflicts or are perpetuating existing conflicts. Building on President Obama's acknowledgement that the Libya effort has not turned out well, a much more intensive international effort to help train and outfit a national police force and a national army should be enacted. The U.S. and others should create sustained, high-level engagement with various political actors so that the dynamics leading up to the 2015 election do not worsen regional and sectarian schisms that may provide some of the disaffection among many citizens. With some targeted and generally modest investments, the United States and other key nations can help African states build on what is, in reality, a more promising security environment than many appreciate, with numerous hopeful signs. Gaining passage in 2015 of the still-pending Energize Africa Act in the new Congress will ensure ongoing funding for Power Africa and that the initiative will exist after Obama leaves office. The Obama administration should use the next two years to develop a new bipartisan and mutually beneficial framework for deepening commercial ties with Africa that is legally enforceable. The experts also advised the Obama administration to engage China in an effort to foster trilateral cooperation in specific areas among U.S., Chinese and African companies. In this sense the experts analyzed the prospects of the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation which will be held in South Africa in 2015. They expected that China will boost its financing commitment and development priorities in Africa at the meeting. As Africa's largest trading partner and a major investor, China's actions have major implications for the development of the continent. Thus, Africa needs to accurately anticipate and assess the Chinese agenda, weighing the pros and cons, in order to approach FOCAC with strategies and priorities that will align with that agenda but also meet African needs. As noted above, African leaders therefore must aim for a more informed understanding of the short-term and long-term consequences of Chinese financing projects. As most African countries prioritize structural transformation as the central and most critical theme in their economic policies, they have to develop a nuanced assessment of how China's infrastructure financing will contribute or undermine this theme and actively manage the results. In light of the above mentioned issues, development and economic growth remain essential issues that be issued in the continent more than ever during this year. As the experts of Brookings mentioned that Africa's prospects in 2015 are markedly different from what they were in 2000: African economies have grown at rates rivaling those of East Asia, averaging 6 percent in 2013 (excluding South Africa) (Africa Progress Panel 2014). By 2025, if current growth trajectories continue, three out of every five African countries will be middle income. Moreover, this growth has been driven both by natural resources and by a vibrant services sector, rising private investment, increased exports and improved agricultural production. Africa is increasingly depicted by its leaders as a continent of opportunity. Compared to the Millennium Development Goals "MDG"s' focus on basic needs, the post-2015 agenda has three new prongs that are critical to development success in Africa: Job creation, Infrastructure and Governance, Peace and security. In this case, African governments can still accelerate progress towards the MDGs during 2015. Even if goals are not fully met, the MDGs are the starting point for the post-2015 agenda, and every effort must be made to strengthen these foundations by the end of the year. African and world leaders must not only seek more and better finance, but also more value for money if they are to support sustainable, inclusive development in the most efficient way African governments can better extract benefits from financial resources when they partner with foreign governments. To harness financial flows for long-term economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, African policymakers will need to foster linkages between multinational companies and the domestic private sector, specifically facilitating the transfer of knowledge and skills to the region. The experts also addressed three main issues that are facing the continent which and expressed their concern that they could hinder all the prospected developments which are: Ebola, the violence during elections and African Union. The experts noted that African populations continue to suffer under the heavy burden of disease despite overall sustained increases in income levels over the last decade. However, 2014 in West Africa will be remembered not for progress made in combatting infectious diseases but as the year the Ebola virus crippled three countries on the continent and inflicted economic damage to many others. The 20th Ebola outbreak globally has captured the attention of the world like none of the others that have preceded it and like no other disease has in recent history. At a time when Africa was beginning to consolidate its growth, the fatality of the Ebola virus will knock the three most affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) off course—mainly due to its prohibitive impact on trade, economic activity in the agriculture, mining, services, and particularly tourism sectors, as well as spillover effects throughout the region, especially if the epidemic is not contained. In the short term, the focus should first be on winning the battle and getting to zero cases in all countries. This effort will require strong leadership from the respective governments and their health services. Over the medium to long term, the focus should be on strengthening health systems to be able to deal with such crises. Countries must adequately fund their health sector and ensure the system is progressive. Late in 2014, as the Ebola crisis escalated, a popular African newspaper carried an opinion piece entitled, "Where is Africa?" (Ndemo 2014). This question was in reference to the fact that the African Union (AU)—which was expected by many Africans to lead the effort against the epidemic—was missing in action. Besides addressing crises, the AU is also charged with the responsibility of coordinating continent-wide development efforts and serving as the voice of Africans in matters of global governance. A well-functioning and effective AU is crucial to the social, political and economic advancement of Africa. Of course, the AU cannot function effectively if it is pervaded by incompetence, limited resources, corruption and other bureaucratic inefficiencies. Thus, the key to making the AU a successful instrument and powerful voice is reconstructing and reconstituting both the institution and its organs so as to create a political and bureaucratic institution that functions according to the rule of law and serves as a true representative of the wishes and aspirations of the broad cross-section of African people. In light of these priorities and disappointments, it is critical that this necessary organization undergoes key reforms and is restructured so that it can become a more efficient instrument for the economic and political transformation of Africa. These reforms include: financing, strengthening the AU Commission, Leadership, and the Grassroots Representation. In 2015, many countries in Africa—including the Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Guinea, Libya, Mauritius, Niger, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo and Zambia—will conduct presidential and/or legislative elections. The 2015 elections, then, for some, could be turning points for embracing democracy more closely, and, for others, for significantly deepening and institutionalizing democracy and emerging as democratic strongholds on the continent. A major challenge for all countries that will conduct elections in 2015 will be to ensure that the majority of their citizens see these elections as free, fair and credible. The experts therefore recommended the following: These governments must (1) provide the security necessary to ensure that no one participating in the elections is threatened, molested or denied access to the process; (2) make certain that the opposition is provided with adequate access to the media, including government-owned and operated outlets, so that it can fully and effectively explain its platform to prospective voters; (3) create an open dialogue with all constituencies to prevent feelings of marginalization; (4) minimize political corruption and avoid any activities (e.g., vote-rigging) that can place the opposition at a competitive disadvantage and enhance the ability of the incumbent government to win the elections; (5) make sure that the national election commission is independent enough to function effectively in carrying out the election; and (6) provide facilities for domestic and international monitors so that they can perform their jobs well and ensure that the elections are fair, free and credible. http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2015/01/foresight-africa-top-priorities
