RICE prices are expected to witness an unprecedented rise internationally in 2008 after a deadly cyclone hit southern Bangladesh last month, destroying $291 million of Bangladesh's winter rice crop. According to Nader Noureddin, professor of agriculture at the Faculty of Agriculture, Bangladesh is one of the major rice exporters and the destruction of its rice crop would negatively affect rice prices in international markets. "Rice prices are expected to increase by 20 per cent during next year due to the total destruction in one of the massive crop producers," noted Noureddin. Accordingly, demand on Egyptian rice will increase, a fact that concerns most water experts in Egypt. "The increase in rice prices will encourage farmers to grow more lands with rice, a fact that may have serious consequences on the country's limited water resources," said Noureddin who added that rice is a water-heavy consuming crop, and growing it at larger scales in Egypt will negatively affect the production of other vital crops. Last year, Egyptian farmers grew 1.7 million feddans of rice instead of the planned one million feddans to take advantage of the high prices in international markets. "This year, more rice is expected to be grown still," said Noureddin who warned against the issue of water scarcity in Egypt. "Exporting Egyptian rice is equivalent to exporting Egyptian water. Egypt can not afford to export water." In the meantime, wheat price almost doubled in 2006/2007 compared to 2005/2006. According to Noureddin, wheat price in international bourses witnessed a $50 increase last week as India won a tender to import one million tonnes of wheat by March 2008. The India wheat tender got bids ranging from $395.88-$483 per metric tonne this week. "India is basically a wheat sufficient country. The country's plans to buy massive amounts of wheat for next year will only help to make wheat prices shoot up internationally," said Noureddin. Accordingly, subsidy for wheat in Egypt is expected to further increase during next year. In 2005/2006, wheat subsidy was estimated at LE6 billion which doubled to LE12 billion in 2006/2007. "Any increase in wheat prices internationally will definitely be followed by an increase in wheat subsidy for the local market. This constitutes a heavy burden on the government's budget," said Noureddin.
