Kenya's opposition, robbed of victory, is up in arms, Western powers have stepped up pressure and a flurry of diplomatic activity has ensued, writes Gamal Nkrumah Political turmoil, and the accompanying credit crunch, a faltering economy, outbursts of an angry Western diplomat, and social chaos, these are the contours of the shape-shifting menace that faces Kenya in the aftermath of the closely- contested December presidential elections that, officially, was won by the incumbent Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki. Casting a long shadow over the entire democratic exercise is the tragic fact that the two main contenders hail from rival ethnic groups -- the two largest in the country. Kibaki, and his mainly Kikuyu supporters, are pitted against the Luo and Luhya peoples of western Kenya loyal to the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) headed by veteran politician Raila Odinga, himself a Luo. Nobody knows yet for sure who won the presidential poll. The ODM claimed the elections were fraudulent. Western powers at first welcomed the dubious victory of President Kibaki. Later, and after the embroilment of Kenya in intense ethnic strife and political violence, Western diplomats in Kenya signaled to their governments that something was terribly amiss about the polls. The results, they concluded were suspicious in the extreme. A good example was the reaction from Washington that at first applauded Kibaki and Kenyan democracy, then dispatched top level officials to mediate between the Kenyan protagonists and then questioned the rectitude and credibility of Kenyan democracy. Matters came to a head this week with the publication of a curious newspaper advertisment which prompted the United States Ambassador to Kenya Michael Ranneberger to unleash a barrage of criticism, calling it "scurrilous propaganda". Ambassador Ranneberger was furious about the possible ramifications of the message the advertisement put across. "It is irresponsible to say, as the advertisement does, that the truth provides incitement to ethnic violence. There is compelling evidence of serious irregularities in the vote-tallying from a wide variety of non-partisan sources," Ranneberger stressed. The curious advertisement was ostensibly addressed to the members of the Western diplomatic corps in Kenya. "Kenyans have been killed because of their ethnicity and political beliefs. It is shocking that you have been silent about this," the advertisement read sounding the alarm bells. The advertisement came in the wake of intensifying violence in Kenya. The Kenyan authorities banned public demonstrations and the police presence is palpable. Members of the Kikuyu community were the targets of violence by other ethnic groups. They were seen as lackeys of President Kibaki and his inner circle of leading Kikuyu businessmen and politicians. In the meantime, members of the opposition ODM were brutally victimised by the police and security forces. The response of the Mwai Kibaki government to statements by Ranneberger and other Western powers has been anything but gleeful. Kenyan officials have been especially livid about criticisms of the December presidential polls. "Our elections do not need a stamp of authority from the House of Commons," retorted Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula. The dramatic turn of events in Kenya might have been scripted in a Hollywood horror movie. Worse, it is not entirely clear if the scriptwriter is Kenyan or if there is a hidden foreign hand, as conspiracy theorists maintain. The prophets of doom predicted a reenactment of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The pessimists prophesy that the Rwandan scenario will in all probability be enacted in Kenya in 2008. Optimists dismiss such a gloomy forecast and point out that there are major differences between Kenya 2008 and Rwanda 1994. Neither scenario looks absolutely impossible. What is clear is that the political violence in Kenya today has claimed the lives of almost 1000 people, but that the dreaded word genocide is not in the cards. Kenyans are no strangers to violence, though. The very state was conceived in violence. Revolutionary violence, the protracted armed struggle of the Mau Mau rebellion that ousted the European colonial settlers in Kenya, was a noble cause. It established the foundations of modern Kenya. It was a bitter fight, though, with atrocities committed by both African freedom fighters and the colonial authorities. The Kenyan political establishment is riven by deep political rivalries, not so much ideological as ethnic in nature. The sad truth is that Kenyan politicians have avoided any discussion about the real economic and social concerns that have dogged the Kenyan people. From the beginning of the violence it was clear that the key players had ulterior motives. Odinga has emerged as a hero, but not necessarily of the downtrodden masses of Kenya. Now he is in a stronger position than ever among his people in western Kenya. Kibaki's position is shakier. A flurry of diplomatic activity saw former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan parachuting into Kenya this week to mediate. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni also paid a visit to Kenya for the same purpose. Further delay in a peaceful resolution of the Kenyan conflict will only compound the injustice done to the people of Kenya. The need is to break the chain of poverty and underdevelopment. Puncturing the lull in the violence, the current controversy over the provocative advertisement proved to be an excuse for fighting to break out on the streets of the capital and other cities. The row over the mysterious advertisement also reflects deep cleavages along ethnic lines. Chauvinism, infighting and political violence threaten Kenya's traditional stability, with people's first loyalty to politicians with whom they share a common ethnicity. There is an irony in seeing former political comrades Kibaki and Odinga at each other's throats. The former pro-democracy comrades-in- arms have now given Kenyan democracy an appalling reputation. The opposition has vowed to boycott the new government. The opposition, too, can exercise their constitutional right to challenge the election results, but they must work harder at being constructive. Kenyan democracy is based on the optimistic notion that the country is the economic powerhouse of eastern Africa, and therefore, its democratic experiment cannot go wrong. Sadly, the substance of the Kenyan melodrama did not remotely match the storyline of a vibrant Kenyan democracy. This so-called powerhouse leaves 90% of the people living on less than a dollar a day.. The violence is really more about this than some colour-coded "democratic" flip-flop. It recapitualtes the experience of Eastern Europe, that narrowly focused on individual rights and personal freedoms rather than collective social rights, leaving the people in the same predicament after the so-called revolutions as before. And, as is the case with the Ukrainians versus the Russians in Ukraine, negotiations in Kenya will get nowhere until politicians refrain from playing the tribal card.
