Kenya's wily politicians are talking, while their people are locked in deadly combat, writes Gamal Nkrumah The first act of the extended drama in Kenya, hitherto one of Africa's most promising emerging economies, was for the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga to declare the presidential election results null and void. However, he is not exactly regarded as a national hero, not even the man of the hour. Indeed, among many sections of Kenyan society, Odinga is regarded as the villain of the piece. The ideological shine has gone, too, from Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki. He was a symbol of democracy and change in December 2002 when he won a landslide victory over Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of the founding father of the nation Jomo Kenyatta. Both Kibaki and Kenyatta were ethnic Kikuyu, Kenya's largest ethnic group. There was no ethnic factor in the 2002 elections, the key issues were democracy and the anti-corruption campaign. Today, these issues have subsided and ethnic diversion has emerged as the key concern. Kibaki in 2002 headed the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), a coalition of credible democratic forces. Today, in sharp contrast, his Party of National Unity is something of a misnomer. It is a coalition of Kenyatta's old Kenya African National Union (KANU), NARC, and three smaller parties -- Ford Kenya, Ford People and Shirikisho. That such a motley coalition managed to sneak in a victory in the 27 December 2007 presidential poll set the cat among the pigeons. Political incoherence soared as ethnic conflict held sway. A political impasse ensued, but a humanitarian catastrophe is being played out. Angry, jobless youth from rival ethnic groups set out with clubs and machetes to slaughter the perceived enemy. The Rift Valley Province where different ethnic groups mingle and no one group predominates appears to have witnessed the worst of the political violence. But the provinces of Western Kenya, Nyanza (also in the western part of the country) and the sprawling slums of the Kenyan capital Nairobi also bore the brunt of the inter-ethnic violence. The savagery of the slaughtering hinted at passions far stronger than inflamed tribal animosity. It clearly pointed to the utter desperation of the aimless youth of the country -- they are unemployed, demoralised, hold no hope in the future and are completely frustrated. The land can no longer support a still rapidly growing rural population, and young people from different ethnic backgrounds are forced off the land to huddle together in shantytowns on the outskirts of Nairobi and other Kenyan urban centres. The omens bode ill. Talk of Luo and Luhya youth undergoing guerrilla warfare training in southern Sudan have sent a chill down the spines of the ethnic Kikuyu many of whom want President Kibaki, himself a Kikuyu, to impose a state of emergency in the country. The country's most influential newspaper The Daily Nation accused Kibaki's government of "inertia and ineptitude". Ironic, since the paper seemed to favour the president during the run-up to the 27 December presidential poll. The last act ought to be serious negotiations for a new and truly democratic political dispensation. The Kenyan opposition still has a lot to prove. They have to demonstrate that they are non- tribalist, that they do not solely represent a particular ethnic group. President Mwai Kibaki, with Raila Odinga as his key ally, attained power when they won free and fair democratic elections in 2002. In those days, they were widely regarded by Kenyans and the international community as a non- tribal political grouping whose main aim was the advancement of democracy and the implementation of political reform. Today, both men are widely seen as petty tribalists with myopic and narrow-minded political interests. The Kenyan political crisis was the paramount concern of the African Union (AU) summit meeting in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa last week. Other issues were on the list of priorities, but it was Kenya that topped the agenda. Kibaki and Odinga have resumed talks this week to try and diffuse the crisis. The Kenyan government that once prided itself on businesslike pragmatism has become synonymous with politically skewed artlessness. Kenyans believe that their country is heading in the wrong direction. Western-style democracy neither feeds the masses nor provides jobs for the unemployed youth. Political stability does, however. And, at the AU summit in Addis Ababa it was agreed that a stable and vibrant democracy in Kenya is what is needed at the moment. Kenya must not be seen to be marching backwards. Putting their own houses in order has been a preoccupation of many African nations in recent years. And, Kenya is no exception. Indeed, former UN secretary general Kofi Annan called for the implementation of a South African style Truth and Reconciliation Commission in Kenya. "It is in your power to stop the violence if you act as one. You have an opportunity to stand up for peace," Nobel Laureate and former archbishop of Cape Town Desmond Tutu, who led South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission, advised Kenyans. He urged Kenyan leaders to introduce "immediate measures to promote reconciliation and healing." Annan also prompted Kenyan politicians to stage "joint peace rallies by all leaders of parties to promote peace". Kofi Annan concurred with Tutu. Odinga's right hand man, Musalia Mudavadi, is an ethnic Luhya, the country's third largest ethnic group. The Luhyas and Luo people of Odinga (Kenya's second largest ethnic group) are geographically concentrated in the western part of the country around Lake Victoria. The Rift Valley towns of Nakuru and Naivasha have witnessed scenes of exceptional brutality. Two ODM MPs, Mugabe Were and David Kimutani Too, were recently assassinated. Too was shot dead by the police. Kenya's Police Commissioner Hussein Ali, however, described the killings as "crimes of passion". Odinga maintains a sense of rightness and a determination to succeed in forcing Kibaki out of office. Odinga repeatedly refers to thuggery of Kibaki and his henchmen. "The purpose of this killing is to reduce the ODM majority [in Parliament]," Odinga warned. He wants to have international peacekeeping troops stationed in Kenya. Kibaki, on the other hand, rejected South African labour unionist turned entrepreneur Cyril Ramaphosa as mediator because he is a business partner of Odinga. Gangs of Kikuyu youth went on the rampage in the wake of the political unrest and initial targeting of ethnic Kikuyus by members of the Luo and Luhya communities. The youth revel in revenge killings. It may take a year or longer to forge a comprehensive agreement between Kibaki and Odinga. Annan, however, is cautiously optimistic. "We have agreed on an agenda covering both short-term issues and long-term issues," Annan explained. He stressed that ending violence and alleviating the humanitarian crisis are key concerns. Easily said, but very hard to do. The country's ethnic conflicts are being played out in the Kenyan press. One can read a surprisingly nuanced message about the "Mount Kenya Mafia" a reference to the Kikuyu cohorts of President Kibaki. There are references on blogs and Internet chat sites to Kikuyu billionaire businessmen controlling commercial agriculture, real estate and tourism. That doesn't help create a climate of peace. That is a tricky struggle to unravel, and a very African one. Fresh elections are an option, even though Mwai Kibaki realises all too well that the political violence that tore the country apart may whittle down his lead in any future elections. Where
