Pakistanis delivered a massive defeat on President Pervez Musharraf in the national elections -- but it doesn't mean he will resign, writes Graham Usher in Lahore On 18 February the Pakistan people cast their vote on President Pervez Musharraf's eight years in power -- and the verdict was damning. His ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Q) was routed across the country. The coalition of religious parties he had cobbled together to shore up his military rule was demolished, especially in restive North West Frontier Province (NWFP). And the two parties of the two former prime ministers he has spent much of his rule trying to sideline -- the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto and the Muslim League (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif -- could form the next Pakistan government. The question is whether they can effect a genuine transition to democracy or whether differences, including over Musharraf's presidency, will trigger more turbulence for this poor, fractured and nuclear-armed country of 160 million people. By 20 February -- with most votes counted -- the PPP had won 113 seats in the 342-seat National Assembly; the PML-N had won 84. The PML-Q was a dismal third, with 55. Its leader, Chaudhry Shaujaat Hussein, conceded defeat less than 24 hours after the polls closed. We "will sit on the opposition benches," he said. Musharraf said he was ready to work with any government that was formed. His spokesmen dismissed all calls for his resignation. There was satisfaction in the towns and villages but the greater sense was relief. Some 450 people were killed during the election campaign, including PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto. Twenty- eight people were killed in election-day violence. These were from inter-party vendettas. Mercifully, there were no suicide attacks or indiscriminate slaughters of voters, a la Iraq. Nor was there any massive rigging. The elections were "free, legitimate and credible", said a team of United States senators. But what do they mean for Pakistan? Aitzaz Ahsan is a lawyer and senior PPP leader. Last year, he led a successful campaign of lawyers against Musharraf's decision to sack Pakistan's Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohamed Chaudhry. Most analysts see that campaign as the beginning of the president's slide from grace. Ahsan was placed under house arrest in Lahore after Musharraf imposed emergency rule -- and purged the judiciary for a second time -- on 3 November. He hasn't been out since, though the "sub-jail" began to relax a little on 18 February. "I knew something was afoot when my phones started ringing," he said, with a smile. He believes the election results are vindication of the chief justice campaign. But they also have lessons from his party. "I thought the PPP would get an absolute majority in the national assembly. After Benazir's assassination I thought people would vote with their emotions. In fact they voted on issues". While the PPP swept its native Sindh province -- and did well in the smaller NWFP and Balochistan provinces -- it lost the Punjab, the richest and most populous province. It also fared badly in the cities and among those urban, middle-class constituencies galvanised by the chief justice campaign -- lawyers, media workers, civil society activists and students. Sharif made these groups his core support. "He stole a march on us," concedes Ahsan. The reason was simple: throughout his campaign he minted two indelible slogans. There could be democracy without the reinstatement of Chaudhry and the other senior judges Musharraf had sacked during the emergency. And Musharraf should resign. He repeated his call in the election aftermath. "The General should heed the advice of his people. He should stand down," he said on 19 February. In the next week Sharif will meet PPP co- chairman Asif Ali Zardari for talks on forming a coalition government. Sharif says he has only one condition: "the reinstatement of the judges. I am not seeking office". It will be left to the "restored judiciary" to decide Musharraf's fate, he says. It is not clear how Zardari will respond. Nowhere in the PPP campaign did he pledge the reinstatement of specific judges like Chaudhry. And other PPP leaders -- including possible Prime Ministerial candidate, Amin Fahim -- have ruled out any move to impeach the president for violating the constitution. If the issues of the judiciary and presidency prove to be deal-breakers, the PPP may have to form a coalition with smaller parties, including perhaps the PML-Q. It will face opposition. Sharif may use his control of the provincial government in the Punjab to "paralyse" the federal government in Islamabad, warns Ahsan. And even if the Punjab is quiet, the lawyers won't be. On 9 March -- the anniversary of the chief justice's first sacking -- they plan to converge on parliament from the four provinces and stay there until the judges are restored. Ahsan knows this could mean conflict with a PPP-led government. He hopes it will be the final push for Musharraf. "The elections were a referendum on General Musharraf, the martyrdom of Benazir Bhutto and the chief justice and the judgement was clear: Musharraf must go!"
