Is Egypt's attempt to broker a truce between Hamas and Israel any closer to success, asks Dina Ezzat One day it is yes and the following it is no. Egyptian officials continue offering contradictory assessments of the fate of a truce -- temporary and fragile though it is likely to be -- that they have been trying hard for the past few months to broker between Hamas and Israel. This week, expectations ran high. "I think eventually it will work... But I don't know if it is exact to say that it is a matter of days," commented an informed Egyptian source on condition of anonymity. Egypt's master plan for the truce is quite basic. "It is really very simple. Each side should exercise maximum restraint," commented one Egyptian official. Cairo is proposing that Hamas halt firing Qassam rockets -- qualified by some Egyptian officials as "silly fireworks" -- in return for Israel suspending all ground and air aggression against Gaza and Hamas members. Were this arrangement to hold for a few weeks, Cairo would then propose that the Rafah Crossing be promptly but cautiously re-opened, in accordance with a new arrangement largely based on an agreement reached between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) under US patronage in November 2005. Progress is being reported. Hamas is showing flexibility on its initial determination to monitor the Palestinian side of Rafah, as opposed to PA officials. "Hamas is now willing to allow the Presidential Guard of the PA to step in, but it wants to preserve the right to screen the lists of selected guards," commented one source. Hamas remains "reluctant" to allow the operation of Israeli surveillance cameras on the border. For its part, Israel is reluctant to remove these cameras in return for Egyptian guarantees. Egypt and the European Union are jointly considering their options, including the replacement of these cameras by a monitoring system controlled by Egypt in cooperation with the Europeans. "I think that we can eventually reach an agreement on this front, especially that the tendency now is to get the EU monitors to be stationed in Arish rather than in Israel," the same informed source added. If such new arrangement were concluded, according to the Israeli request, Cairo would have to beef- up its security measures along the Philadelphi Corridor to make sure that Hamas is not in any way using the Rafah Crossing -- or any tunnels that are illicitly dug between Rafah and Gaza -- to enhance its armament capacities or financial reserves. If and when the truce is solidified, Cairo also hopes that the way would be opened for a thus far elusive prisoner swap deal that would allow for the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in return for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners, including a considerable number of Hamas sympathisers as well as prominent Fatah figures. So far, Egyptian sources say, the two main stumbling blocks have been the nature of the agreement and the guarantees involved. Hamas, they say, wants a written agreement preferably with the European Union as a witness. Israel, on the other hand, is categorically opposed to this scenario, and to some extent so is the European Union. Hamas also wants written guarantees from Egypt as to how it would secure and monitor the truce. Hamas wants Egypt to recognise its right of retaliation were Israel to violate the truce. Israel, according to the same sources, is only willing to conclude a "gentlemen's agreement" -- without direct negotiation or specific guarantees. On the US side, contrary to earlier opposition voiced in Washington when Egypt maintained contacts with Hamas, Egyptian officials sense a new realism on the side of the US regarding Hamas. During two consecutive recent visits, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her deputy, David Welch, encouraged Egyptian mediation in pursuit of a truce. "The shift in the US position is prompted by a new US awareness that without the truce already tough negotiations would be impossible to maintain," commented an Egyptian source. He added that in view of the expected May visit of US President George W Bush, and his promise to deliver a peace deal before the end of this year, the ground needs to be set for progress. For his part, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is easing his opposition to a truce that he feared would strengthen Hamas. This, observers agree, is triggered by acknowledgement of his deteriorated popularity among Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere in the Palestinian territories for having failed to react adequately to Israeli massacres against Palestinian civilians, especially women and children. "So yes, it is safe to say that we have the right components for concluding the truce, but one has always to be aware of the uncontrollable developments that could occur," commented one Egyptian official. He added that the tense internal struggle between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his many political contenders could produce a sudden change of dynamics. "But let us say that we think we are on the right track," he added. Egyptian General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman is considering visiting Israel to seal the details of the truce. The visit, that may or may not be announced, would address all existing obstacles through top-level talks.
