Whoever wins in the Zimbabwe election, the land question remains the burning for the whole of southern Africa, avers Gamal Nkrumah Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe embarrassed and confounded the forecasters. Not least was the shock of the vulnerability of a supposedly invincible African potentate. He was presumed to be the clear front-runner in the parliamentary and presidential polls of 29 March. Conventional wisdom holds that Mugabe should have won hands down. Is he not an African dictator and his wishes are his people's commands? How can the West reconcile the contrasting images of Mugabe the tyrant, with the leader who is contemplating bowing out gracefully? The transfer of power in Zimbabwe promises to be a most delicate matter. The unedifying spectacle of an African potentate pleading for a re- run of the presidential poll, conceding his party's defeat in the parliamentary poll defies the tarnished image portrayed by Mugabe in the Western media. Mugabe is no monster. Yes, in the following weeks he will be obliged to face a reality test of his own. He is nothing if not stubborn. And, in spite of his age, 85, he is a sprightly octogenarian. He has a steely will. He cares deeply and personally about the plight of the landless peasants of Zimbabwe whose forebearers were dispossessed of their land. Enemies of Mugabe could not hope for a greater gift, but that is simply at first glance. His detractors cannot say that he is a rogue behaving badly and determined to stop democracy from overrunning his benighted land. And, not only did the opposition claim that he lost, but they also claimed that he rigged the vote. Yet, his party has emerged as the first party in power in all Africa to question the results of the National Electoral Commission and to charge it for undercounting votes cast for Mugabe. This twist of fortunes for a president is unprecedented in African politics. It remains true that Zimbabwean voters were torn between two presidential candidates -- Mugabe and the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Morgan Tsvangirai. Yes, the MDC leader appears to have the upper hand at the moment, thanks to the deplorable state of the Zimbabwean economy that has been in a state of siege because of the biting British and international sanctions. Whoever wins, Zimbabwean politics will continue to be bedeviled by the land question. This is not to say that things will stay much the same if and when Mugabe steps down from power. Land redistribution will remain an overriding worry. "This is our soil and the soil must never go back to the whites," Mugabe was quoted as saying in the Zimbabwean Herald. Indeed, on Tuesday, the paper confirmed the government accusation that in certain constituencies there were 5,000 votes less for Mugabe. His supporters sounded the alarm bells. Zimbabwean police promptly arrested five electoral officials. Democratisation in Zimbabwe can play into the hands of Western powers and this is what concerns Mugabe's supporters the most. These reservations are widely shared across the continent. Tsvangirai travelled to neighbouring South Africa to meet with the new leader of the governing African National Congress Jacob Zuma and to plot how to "remove the white-knuckle grip of Mugabe." Zuma, who in the past had criticised the courteous manner in which South African President Thabo Mbeki had dealt with Mugabe, had previously declared that he would adopt a tougher stance with respect to Mugabe. If he wins Tsvangirai will have to come to grips with a complex challenge that relates to the image of Zimbabwe on the African continent. The country remained for decades a symbol of African struggle against European settler colonialism. True, that image has been eroded somewhat in the past few years, primarily because of bad publicity in the Western media. However, he will have to deal with the country's sense of itself as a virtuous nation, and this very self-image is inextricably intertwined with land reform. There is no road back. There is plenty of time for mistakes and meltdowns. Tsvangirai is portrayed in the Western media as benevolent and well-intentioned, and that he may well be. If in fact he wins outright, he will have a tricky balancing act. He will be beholden to the West for its many years of trying to incapacitate Mugabe, and will be expecting a pay- off. He will also be watched carefully by critics who will be fast to accuse him of being a stooge of Western interests. And all the time, there is the precarious economy looming over his shoulder, casting a shadow on all attempts to strike out in a new, more positive direction. He may well find himself pushed towards the autocratic, paranoid style of governance which the West so loudly accused Mugabe of. Contrary to appearances, Tsvangirai's predicament is the mirror image of Mugabe's. Mugabe is in office, but no longer in power. Tsvangirai is in power but not yet in office. Making a good fist of this role is surely a demanding test for Tsvangirai.
