Gamal Nkrumah reviews an eventful week for Sudan, even though the long-term repercussions are still not clear A cumulus of dissatisfaction engulfs Sudan. The Sudanese, especially southerners and the indigenous people of Darfur are in an acrimonious mood. Both believe that the government has rescinded on promises of power-sharing. Herein lies the danger for the government of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir. Darfur factions that have signed a peace deal with the Sudanese government this week claimed that they are dissatisfied with the Sudanese government's circling around on its part of the bargain. In a clear violation of the African Union- and United Nations-sponsored agreement, Sudanese government forces allegedly staged a ruinous aerial bombardment on hapless civilians that killed 13 people, including seven children whose school was razed to the ground. The wanton destruction of property and the deaths have enraged Darfur's indigenous non- Arab population and have strengthened the cause of hardliners within the Darfur armed opposition groups. The political implications are as yet unclear. Darfur watchers are assessing the fury of the war-torn province's people with trepidation. Pessimists fear that the latest round of violence will only make an ass of the agreement and a mockery of the peace pact. The Achilles heel of the Bashir regime is the ongoing civil war in Darfur. And, these violations have happened, Darfur opposition groups argue, because of and not despite criticism from the international community. They insist that a measured response to such criticism is necessary for the internal stability of the country. If the Sudanese government cannot deliver benefits to its people, they may decide to scrap the agreement altogether. This is especially the case in outlying regions long suffering from peripheralisation and neglect. The Sudanese people are yearning for new opportunities and new freedoms. If their aspirations are not fulfilled the insurgencies and social unrest are bound to escalate to new heights. The odds, however, are against these things happening. The reason is the country's newfound oil bonanza. The grumblings of disgruntlement have spread throughout the south. Western businessmen and policymakers are keen to curry favour with the promising southern Sudanese leaders, and in particular those of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the main coalition partner of the northern-based ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of President Al- Bashir. This week, the Donors Conference in which 38 nations and international organisations participated took place in the Norwegian capital Oslo. Some $4.5 billion was pledged, but Sudanese Vice-President and leader of the SPLM Silva Kiir cancelled his planned trip to Oslo because of a plane crash which claimed the lives of 24 people including the Southern Sudanese Defence Minister Dominic Dim Deng. A distinct note of discontent has started to be heard in southern Sudanese circles. Conspiracy theories abound. "People are very worried and those who have heard about it will suspect foul play because John Garang died in a plane crash and they still don't believe the results of the investigation," Kiir told reporters in Juba. The crash took place 400km west of the southern Sudanese capital of Juba. Deng and presidential adviser Justin Yak were returning to Juba from a political conference in Wau, a major garrison town in southern Sudan. Several senior southern Sudanese politicians and military men were killed in the accident, and hence the suspicion of political intrigue. However, observers note that the crash is unlikely to derail the peace process. The NCP and the SPLM signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement on 9 January 2005. Unfortunate incidents like these force the country to take stock of itself. Many different answers have been proffered for the crash. The authorities, both the Sudanese government and the SPLM contend that it was due to engine failure. Few southerners, though, believe this explanation but most are so far committed to their pact with the government. At any rate, this has been a crucial week for Sudan in other ways. Sami Al-Haj, Al-Jazeera photographer and a Sudanese national, was unexpectedly released from Guantanamo Bay. Al-Bashir personally received Al-Haj, who overnight became something of a national hero. The Sudanese government is making much political capital out of Al-Haj's release, and anti- American sentiment is running high. Four Sudanese nationals remain in Guantanamo, and Sudan is pressing for their release. "Torture is terrorism" Al-Haj said defiantly. His release has strengthened the government's hand. The challenge for Sudan is that some of the warring Sudanese factions are getting caught up in the tsunami of anti-American hysteria. Sudan's current cumbersome hiatus brought on with all these developments is fraught with difficulties which augurs ill for Sudan. Tensions in Darfur have spiked in the past few weeks, and some of the Darfur opposition groups are now branded pro-American traitors. Charges that the powers that be in Sudan are dictatorial kleptocrats whose goons badger and torture dissenters are rife among the Sudanese opposition forces. Opposition forces charge that Sudanese government officials have a duty to do better. Now that is a prospect to reflect on. Day by day the very fabric of Sudanese society is changing. Nor has there been, the Darfur factions argue, a determined attempt by the Sudanese government to bring to justice those army officers who oversaw atrocities in Darfur. The backdrop is bleak. None of this, however, is irreversible. Sudan's crucial part in securing regional stability cannot be underestimated. In a strange sort of way, Sudan has become in its understated way, a microcosm of political uncertainty in Africa. The African Union is attempting to persuade the Darfur armed opposition groups that their aims can be achieved by peaceful political means. Set against such concerns, the Sudanese authorities are hoping that this time the gamble will pay- off-- that oil revenues and American embroilment in its own domestic economic and political challenges would give the rival Sudanese protagonists time to patch up their differences on their own. The consensus seems to be that Sudan should start thinking about tomorrow rather than yesterday.
