Signs point to a reconfiguration of Syria's relation to Iran, though the signals are mixed, writes Bassel Oudat from Damascus Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem, who is now in Iran to attend a Non-Aligned Movement meeting, is said to be also making preparations for a visit by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to Tehran. Analysts will be following closely the visit, looking for any signs of change in Syrian regional policy. Recently, Damascus seems to be doing a lot of things differently: talking to Europe, staying out of Lebanon, talking to the Israelis, and generally stressing the pragmatic aspect of its foreign policy. When President Al-Assad was in Paris recently, he offered to help resolve inter- Palestinian differences. Then he gave a warm welcome to President Mahmoud Abbas in Damascus a few weeks ago. Damascus is said to be advising Palestinian groups, including Hamas, to cool things down for now. Damascus distanced itself also from turbulence in Iraq, told its media to stop badmouthing the Saudis, and asked the French president to see if the Americans would co-sponsor their talks with Israel. All of this is bound to affect Syrian-Iranian relations, as well as the way Tehran is doing business in the region. Without Syria's support, the Iranians will not be able to work hand-in-hand with Hizbullah, and the legitimacy of their involvement in Iraq will be called into question. Inside and outside the region, there is much speculation that Syria is about to ditch its alliance with Iran. Should this happen, Syria's relations with Hizbullah are bound to change and Lebanon's domestic politics will never be the same again. The Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Ray Al-Amm cites Samir Al-Taqi, director of Al-Sharq Studies Centre and a man known for his close ties with the Syrian Foreign Ministry, as saying that Syria "is willing to break free from the Iranians as soon as it gets what it wants. The alliance between Damascus and Tehran can change if peace is achieved with Israel." Al-Taqi added: "If the region heads towards peace, other side issues can be tackled as well." Al-Taqi is now on a visit to the US as the head of an unofficial delegation for talks about relations and the possibility of renewed US mediation in peace talks. The US State Department, however, has refused to receive the delegation. Syrian-Iranian relations have been strong since the Khomeini revolution, going up another notch during the Iraq-Iran war. At the time, president Hafez Al-Assad claimed that Syria wanted to act as a safety valve for Arab-Iranian ties; to keep Tehran from going to any extreme. It was a stance that brought advantages to both sides. Syria obtained Iranian oil at special rates. It also received loans and grants from Iran. Many Iranian pilgrims went to Syria on religious visits. Iran also bought increasing amounts of Syrian products and encouraged its businessmen to invest in Syria. For its part, Damascus helped Iran with a number of arms deals, and fortunes were made in Damascus in the process. As Iran boosted its economic and political status, it remained loyal to Syria, backing it in time of need. Tehran was also able to pose as a friend of Arab countries. By helping Iran get weapons through to Hizbullah, Syria helped raise Iran's profile. The Iranians felt as if they had a foothold on the Mediterranean. Such was the extent of cooperation between Tehran and Damascus. So what's next? A senior French diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly that Europe has been trying to find an alternative political course that would wean Damascus away from its Iranian connection. Their alternative was Turkey, which is not only smoothing up political problems for the Syrians, but may also prove to be of help in economic matters. Europe has promised Damascus a role in the Union for the Mediterranean and is talking to the Americans about sponsoring direct Syrian-Israeli talks. But Europe has no illusions, said the French diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. All it wants is "to weaken the existing alliance between the two countries and replace it with normal relations." If successful, Europe may be able to bring Syria into the fold of pragmatic nations. Syrian analyst Said Moqbi believes that Europe's tactics are paying off, noting the fact that President Bashar Al-Assad went to Paris, gave the Lebanese a political break, started talks with Israel, and is keeping Damascus-based Palestinian groups on a tight leash. If Damascus maintains its current course, Tehran's influence in the region, as well as Hizbullah's clout, will start to peter away. But it is unlikely that Syria would sever its ties with either Iran or Hizbullah. Damascus needs a regional ally to replace Iran. And it will need to find a way to maintain some presence in Lebanon. When President Al-Assad goes to Tehran, he will reassure the Iranians that Syria is still on their side, however moderate it has become in its foreign policy. Already Syrian officials are saying that Damascus will always be a friend to Iran and never turn against it. A few days ago Vice- President Farouk Al-Shara said, "Syria will not abandon its well-established ties with its regional friends and allies."
