Dina Ezzat charts the fortunes or otherwise of Cairo's latest attempts to contain the situation in Gaza Next Monday, Arab foreign ministers will meet in Cairo for their regular autumn gathering that is likely to be preoccupied with Palestinian developments: the fortunes of ongoing Palestinian-Israeli negotiations over a final status agreement (or simply the parameters thereof) and the prospects of containing the inter-Palestinian feud between Fatah and Hamas. For the moment, full reconciliation appears all but impossible. No major decisions are expected out of the ministerial meeting. It is left entirely to the Palestinian Authority (PA) under Mahmoud Abbas -- with some Arab influence, especially from Cairo and Riyadh -- to decide whether or not to accept a deal that is being offered by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for a final settlement. This deal excludes settlement on East Jerusalem or a formula to determine the right of return and/or compensation for millions of Palestinian refugees. Arab diplomats in Cairo appear unconcerned with the detail of ongoing negotiations. The overriding tone is that Arab governments would support whatever Abbas would agree to, provided that it is not too embarrassing in terms of giving up control over Muslim sites in East Jerusalem. The consent and support of Egypt and Saudi Arabia (some refer to Syria) is also considered helpful in garnering a semblance of Arab support for a deal that the Americans are pushing to conclude between Abbas and Olmert before Olmert exits office and US President George W Bush departs the White House. Arab delegations are expecting to get a comprehensive -- if not detailed -- briefing from the Palestinian delegation to the ministerial meeting. The most important thing that Arab officials are keen to learn is whether or not the PA is excluding a final status agreement before the end of this year. The "What next?" question to a yes or a no answer seems to be the concern of a limited Arab circle (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Qatar and the secretariat of the Arab League), rather than a collective Arab concern. On the fringe of the Cairo ministerial meetings, the head of the Palestinian delegation, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa and the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Qatar will likely hold parallel and collective meetings to examine the nature and tempo of diplomatic moves that should follow the seemingly inevitable failure of final status talks. According to one Arab diplomat, the Palestinian delegation will likely ask for a few more weeks -- to the beginning of October -- before it declares the status of the negotiations with Israel. Concerned Arab capitals -- including Damascus, that is now focussed on its own exploratory talks with Israel -- are likely to agree. Egypt, however, is expected to propose -- with the support of Saudi Arabia -- political support for Abbas should he decide that no deal is attainable. In the eyes of Cairo, the failure of Abbas to conclude final status parameters could be construed by the Palestinian people and other Arabs as an announced failure of the negotiations option. This, Cairo fears, could play into the hands of Hamas, that has for long been forecasting the failure of negotiations and advocating direct resistance to Israeli occupation. The reinforcement of this view is the last thing Cairo wants to see. The kind of support that Cairo seems set to call on Arab countries to provide to Abbas includes financial assistance to be administered by the Palestinian leader, a show of flexibility and support from the international community, including the European Union, which Egypt would call on Arab countries to garner during the UN General Assembly meetings in New York later this month, and cutting political and financial support for Hamas. Egypt is already frustrated with the reluctance of Hamas to show flexibility in completing the prisoners swap deal that it has been negotiating for close to 18 months, to allow for the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit captured by an Islamist resistance group loyal to Hamas in return for the release of a few hundred Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Egypt is also wary of Hamas's mobilisation in the Gaza Strip, encouraging the masses to demonstrate at -- and maybe even break through -- the Rafah crossing point that links the Strip with Egypt. On reconciliation, the Egyptian delegation to the ministerial meeting is set to brief Arab countries on the outcome -- humble as it is -- of the "one-on-one" talks that Cairo has been conducting with visiting delegations of Palestinian factions. Sources say that the beginning of October is also expected to be the deadline for a final decision on Egyptian mediation of the inter- Palestinian feud. Cairo, sources add, is trying to secure the support of Palestinian factions for a set of moves that would include: a symbolic return of the PA to Gaza in exchange for the eventual re-opening of the Rafah crossing point; the handover of all PA establishments in Gaza, especially the security apparatus, to an Arab body that could be stationed in Gaza with consent of all Palestinian parties; the presence of lightly armed Arab troops in Gaza to prevent clashes between Fatah and Hamas activists; and the establishment of a new unity government to take over from the current Ramallah government of pro-Fatah Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and the Abbas-annulled government of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh pending legislative and presidential elections by the end of the year. Under such conditions, Cairo appears to believe, the situation in Gaza could be stabilised while the Palestinians could use the next year to unify ranks as a new US administration takes over and prepares itself to engage in settling the Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet given the lack of confidence -- despite apparent signs of good faith -- between Egypt and Hamas, and given the still uncontained tension between Cairo and Damascus, whose influence on Hamas is substantial, it is hard to see how Cairo's Gaza containment could pass the foreign ministers' meeting or be implemented on the ground. Hamas has already refused any suggestion of stationing Arab troops in Gaza. It is also open in its attempt to replace Egyptian mediation on the prisoner swap deal with European mediation, as well as to break the monopoly that Egypt claims over reconciliation with a wider Arab contribution. Further, Hamas does not seem convinced with symbolic Egyptian gestures, including the opening of the Rafah crossing point earlier this week.
