Polls opened. The results will decide who is Israel's next prime minister. Khaled Amayreh reports from occupied East Jerusalem Members of the centre-right Kadima Party, the leading faction in the Israeli coalition government, on Wednesday began electing a new party chief to replace outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Olmert decided to resign last month following mounting party and public pressure spurred by the corruption scandal that has been haunting him ever since he replaced former prime minister Ariel Sharon in early 2006. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, former defence minister Shaul Mofaz, Public Security Minister Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit are vying for the leadership of Kadima with Livni considered frontrunner. Some opinion poll projections give her 47 per cent of the vote, well ahead of her nearest rival, Mofaz, on 28 per cent. Pundits think it unlikely that any of the candidates will secure 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, forcing the two leading candidates into a second poll. They also predict a low turnout among Kadima's 40,000 voters, which could play against Livni's chances. So far Livni has appeared confident that she will easily beat her main rival, Mofaz, in the first round. "I have no doubt I am going to win, If I didn't think I would win I wouldn't be running at all," she is quoted as saying. "My feeling of confidence doesn't come from the polls. It isn't mathematics. I know I will win because of the responses I get from people I meet throughout the country. People who I don't even know have come and volunteered to help, just because they think I need to head Kadima and become prime minister." Livni said she hoped Olmert would declare himself temporarily incapacitated which would enable the new Kadima leader to replace him immediately, even before the formation of a new coalition government, a slow process fraught with hard bargaining. Mofaz, too, has been sounding confident, projecting himself as more experienced than Livni in matters of security. "Despite everything that is being printed in the media, I believe we'll have good results. There is a huge gap between the way we feel on the ground and the impression given by all kinds of reports and polls," the daily Haaretz newspaper quoted him as saying. Mofaz, say Israeli sources, is hoping to ensure a "strong showing" in order to be able to secure a senior position in the next Israeli government. Both Livni and Mofaz were members of the Likud Party before Sharon decided to form Kadima three years ago. There are important differences between the two in matters pertaining to the peace process with the Palestinians. Livni, who has been in charge of peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority (PA), supports the continuation of the peace process, which makes her more acceptable to the international community. She argues that Israel's "Jewish identity" will be undermined unless a Palestinian state is created on most parts of the territories occupied by Israel in 1967, and opposes the repatriation of a significant number of Palestinian refugees and Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders. Mofaz believes that Israel should further exhaust the Palestinians to the point at which they would be willing to give more concessions to Israel, especially with regard to core issues such as Jerusalem, the refugees and borders. He has argued repeatedly for discussion of final-status issues to be postponed until Israel finds itself in a more favourable position and the Palestinians become weaker. Mofaz, considered by some human rights groups as a war criminal for ordering the killing of hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the course of the second Intifada, has also adopted a bellicose stand towards Iran, his place of birth. A few weeks ago he said Israel should bomb Iran's nuclear installations before the end of 2008 with or without US consent. He also opposes giving up the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights, on the grounds that the plateau is vital for Israel's security. Commentators in Israel believe that if, as is expected, Livni becomes Israel's next prime minister, the ruling coalition, which includes the Labour Party, the ultra-orthodox Haredi Shas and the Pensioners' Party, would remain unchanged. In her desire to form a new government as quickly as possible Livni might even attempt to woo new members from other political parties. Tzippora (Tzipi) Malka Livni, born in 1958, is the daughter of Eitan Livni and Sara Rosenberg, both leading members of the Irgun terrorist organisation. She served as a lieutenant in the Israeli army and worked for Mossad as a low-level agent for nearly two years during the early 1980s. In 2005 she was appointed as foreign minister, a portfolio she held alongside the Justice Ministry. If elected, Livni will be the second woman -- after Golda Meir -- to be Israeli prime minister. Despite the clear backing of the Ashkenazi establishment, few Israeli observers believe that Livni could keep her coalition intact if she decided to reach a final-status agreement with PA leader Abbas that involved Israel ceding all or most of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Such a move would see her government losing its parliamentary majority and force a general election.
