Maintaining the dynamic of change requires clearheadedness, not wishful thinking, writes Abdel-Moneim Said Those of us who have lived through the twists and turns of Egyptian politics over the past half century have found the last few years filled with renewed vitality and dynamism. There has been movement in many directions. On the surface it has manifested itself in political conditions and systems, but beneath the surface lie powerful currents of economic and social change. Gone are the stagnant days of the single state party mobilising the masses and the waiting for governmental decrees for ministerial, bureaucratic and public sector appointments. It is no longer the universal custom in the month of Ramadan, following the breaking of the fast and the evening prayer, to sit before the TV in anticipation of the nightly "Ramadan riddle" programme. In fact, people have begun to complain of how difficult it is to choose between the many available options for evening television viewing. It is now much easier to air ideas and opinions in the press after the state ended its monopoly and independent newspapers proliferated. And if these prove inaccessible for some reason one can always turn to the Internet where, if one is clever enough, it is possible to establish quite a reputation as a blogger. Never before have opposition figures accessed so many hours of airtime to expound and when they run out of things to say a host of others will rush forward to present their own national plans, or reopen pages of Egyptian history. No leader, past or present, is immune from scrutiny. I do not share the anxiety these developments have stirred in some people, though I understand where they are coming from. Some see degeneration and chaos; others fear foreign penetration. People used to a tranquil and uneventful life can easily confuse the foment that accompanies change with mayhem. After years of a state controlled economy they might be stunned by the commotion of the free market and confuse the spirit of competition and new ways to do business with pandemonium. The technological revolution might sometimes seem to have turned our way of life upside down. Yet what is happening in Egypt happened in other countries that preceded us on the path to maturity and development. Moreover, it is occurring peacefully. In spite of a collective sense of impending tumult and upheaval life in Egypt proceeds more or less as normal. Over recent months public attention has focused on prospective candidates for the 2011 presidential elections. Billboards and posters have gone up and petitions launched in support of candidates. The National Association for Change has moved into action in the provinces. Hoisting the banner "We will change together", it has concentrated on pressing seven demands. The campaign, to me, seems like an attempt to jump several squares ahead of where we are, which is at the threshold of the People's Assembly elections. These elections, which will shape parliament for the next five years, are what should take priority. The NDP, for its part, is still moving along in its own way, step by step, and battle by battle. It has a clear and detailed programme about how to engineer change though its first task should be to deliver on the pledges it made during the last presidential elections. As far as the forthcoming campaign is concerned, it appears less concerned with political debate than dealing with the huge number of its members who want to field themselves as candidates in the People's Assembly poll, estimated as anything from 3,000 to 14,000. The party is fully aware of how crucial the screening process is. Setting aside opposition allegations of electoral fraud and the party's own admission of "excesses" during the last elections, the fact is that the NDP won only 38 per cent of the votes in the 2000 parliamentary elections and 32 per cent in 2005. While such a slide in popularity is to be expected for any party in power the party still needs to mobilise its grassroots base, which is what it is focussing on. The political situation in Egypt, in short, is as follows. The opposition has cast its sights beyond the parliamentary elections to next year's presidential poll, promoting change in the political system over other types of reform. Yet apart from changing the electoral process and a few constitutional amendments the opposition has failed to offer the public a single new idea on the most crucial issues Egypt faces, from population growth and educational reform to urban and economic development. It is as if the opposition assumes such problems will be automatically addressed and resolved the moment it gains power. The NDP, meanwhile, practices politics after its own fashion. Certainly it allocates politics a lower priority than the opposition. In spite of the importance of publicity, and despite the means at its disposal, the party has fewer celebrities than the opposition. For the most part these have adopted a defensive position: those who know how to take complex issues and formulate them in a way that makes them accessible to the broader public are few and far between. On the other hand, the party has become better organised and more capable of attracting young people -- who now form 65 per cent of its membership -- and mobilising them at a grassroots levels. Social and economic change is moving full steam ahead though at a pace the party believes the people can sustain. Cumulative progress has created completely new conditions on the ground: competition of a sort and scale unimaginable only a few years ago has been established; women now hold public office and government positions at levels and in numbers unimaginable not so long ago, and the concept of citizenship has become steadily more enshrined even if a certain group accords it little value. In the face of persistent socialist traditions individual initiative and competition in the marketplace has etched an ever greater role, especially among the younger generations, 19 million of whom are regular surfers on the Internet and have the world at their fingertips. Moreover, miracle of miracles, the Egyptian people have finally joined the ranks of the world's taxpayers, on income, purchases and real estate. With this development citizenship becomes a concrete reality. The days of the paternalistic, caretaker state are numbered when holders of public office become accountable to those who pay their salaries via taxes. The changes may in some cases be unquantifiable, for now at least, but their effects will be cumulative, which is what makes the forthcoming parliamentary campaigns so important. The opposition will find the space to realise some of its legitimate aims, including constitutional demands that are sometimes espoused by members of the NDP as well. In mature countries policies change through institutions; indeed, institutions themselves change through mechanisms and procedures that are institutionalised. The alternative, the revolutionary way, creates enormous disruption and wreaks great pain. Society cannot tolerate such jolts too frequently. Egypt has had its share of revolution. Now is the time to establish legitimate institutionalised change, even if it takes longer and is not quite as responsive to reformers' demands. Egypt is not without experience in this regard. It has a long record of parliamentary life, stretching back 135 years. It has had 32 representational assemblies, ranging in size from 75 to 454 members, since the Khedive Ismail founded the Shura Council of Deputies in 1866. This body was abolished in March 1882 and succeeded by the Shura Legislative Council and the General Assembly, a bicameral system introduced by the Khedive Tawfiq in May 1883 after Egypt was occupied by the British. In 1913 they were replaced by the Legislative Assembly, which continued to operate until June 1914 and the outbreak of World War I. It never resumed operation and was abolished in 1923 following the promulgation of the 1923 constitution and the creation of a bicameral system consisting of a Chamber of Deputies and a Senate. Parliaments then came and went, most dissolved halfway through their term by royal decree. The last of such royal edict was issued in the wake of the Cairo fire in January 1952, after which Egypt remained without a parliament until the revolution in July that year. In February 1953 the Revolutionary Command Council declared a three-year transition period during which it would exercise legislative authority. The period concluded with the promulgation of the 1956 constitution, which established the National Assembly. The first post-revolutionary representational body was inaugurated in July 1957 and lasted until March 1958. With the unification of Egypt and Syria in 1958 and the promulgation of the provisional constitution for the United Arab Republic a new national assembly was formed comprising Egyptian and Syrian representatives. Following Syrian secession from the union in September 1961 Egypt remained without a parliament until March 1964, at which point a new provisional constitution introduced another National Assembly. It remained in effect until a permanent constitution was issued in 1971. Under the 1971 constitution legislative authority was vested primarily in the People's Assembly. It was made up of 444 members elected by direct ballot from 222 voting districts, each district returning two representatives at least one of which had to be a worker or a farmer. An additional 10 members were appointed by presidential decree. Article 86 of the constitution states: "The People's Assembly shall exercise legislative power, approve the general policy of the State, the general plan of economic and social development and the general budget of the state. It shall exercise control over the activities of the executive authority in the manner prescribed by the constitution." The constitution was subsequently amended three times, the first in 1980 when the ceiling was removed from how many terms a president could serve and Sharia made the primary source of legislation. The second time was in 2005, when article 76 was modified to provide for multi-candidate direct presidential elections, the third in 2007, when article 34 was changed to state explicitly that citizenship was the basis of the national polity. The amendment process also eliminated socialist references, freeing the government's hand in dealing with economic conditions. The 2010 People's Assembly elections could mark a major turning point in the history of Egyptian parliamentary life. The next parliament will convene amid a plethora of opportunities to discuss presidential nomination procedures and conditions, laws related to political reform, economic development and social affairs. The new members, who will have been elected on the basis of their presumed ability to serve their constituencies, will find themselves absorbed in major national tasks. We should, however, note that these elections will feature the same paradoxes as previous parliamentary elections. In spite of complaints against poor guarantees for the integrity of the electoral process there has been a massive increase in the number of prospective candidates. In 1976, when the first post-revolution competitive parliamentary elections were held, 1660 candidates vied for 350 seats, an average of 4.74 rivals for each seat. The ratio rose in the subsequent elections, reaching 8.91 in 2000, or 3,957 candidates running for the 444 seats. In 2005, the ratio rose yet again, to 11.65, as 5,177 candidates competed for seats. How can we explain the contradiction between criticism of the electoral process and ever more crowded electoral races? The contradiction is all the more puzzling given the apathy that has tended to characterise the Egyptian electorate. The question is certainly thought provoking. While low voter turnout is generally chalked up to presumptions of ballot rigging, one might also consider the prevalent political culture and the failure of political parties to reach out to the people and stimulate their enthusiasm. The most powerful guarantee for the integrity of elections is a massive voter turn out, making it virtually impossible to announce results that do not reflect the popular mood. During the last elections improvements were made through the introduction of the transparent ballot box, the inking of those who had voted -- one hopes a higher quality ink will be used in the next elections - and judicial and NGO monitors. As long as foreign observers are ruled out by many political forces, both within the NDP and outside of it, I imagine that the major addition this year will come from the domestic and international media which have become political players as never before in Egypt. Above all, what we must do is come back down to earth again. We must begin from where we left off if we are to move forward. What counts most as that we sustain the impetus, resolve and clearheadedness that make our forward drive not only possible, but safe.
