Close up: President Obama! By Salama A Salama Few are in agreement on what an Obama victory would mean for the world and the Middle East, but there is no denying that these US elections have broken down racial barriers, opening the way for the first American with an African Muslim father and a white American mother to get into the White House and lead the world's most powerful nation. This drastic change in America tempts many to think that US policy would undergo change in many directions, something that raised the hopes of Arab elites and prompted many Arab Americans to vote for Obama. There is no doubt that Obama is going to be different from Bush. But what exactly does the world expect from an Obama administration? Election promises are not necessarily binding on the US president, for things change once the new president sits in the White House and contemplates the gigantic dimension of the issues facing him. This is when a new president should wonder if the whole thing was worth it. This, too, is when age and mental stamina become important for the man who has taken on the responsibility to govern. The Obama administration is likely to have the backing of a Democratic majority in the US Congress, a matter that would make it easier to push bills and decisions through. Most would agree that the top priority for Obama would be to sort out the economy and salvage America from the sea of debt in which it had drowned, taking much of the world down with it. It will be crucial for a new administration to prove to the world that it can bring things back to normal; crucial for the new president to try to reach an agreement with Europe and Asia on a new financial world order, even if this means sacrificing the dollar's position as the world's lead currency. The Western world seems ready to lessen its reliance on oil through investment in alternative energy. And climate change is likely to stay high on the international agenda. These are areas in which Europe is ahead of America, and ones that the recent financial crisis only served to emphasise. As a result, the era of astronomical oil prices may be coming to a close, along with the disproportionate political weight of oil-rich countries. Acting simultaneously, the new US administration needs to end the occupation of Iraq. First, Washington would have to reach a security agreement with the Iraqis. Then it would have to deal with the aftermath of a US withdrawal. Iraq cannot be sorted out completely, and whatever the Obama administration decides to do, Iraq would remain a ticking bomb for some time to come. Iran, its nuclear programme and increasing role in Iraq, will also have to be dealt with. But Afghanistan and Pakistan may prove harder to tackle. At one point, Washington will have to review its entire policy in Asia, and perhaps tone down its rhetoric about fighting terror and its posturing about democracy. Europe is already trying to talk to the Taliban and the EU is not in a mood to start a new Cold War with Russia. The Middle East is the least susceptible of all regions to a quick and easy solution. Obama has already committed himself to the security of Israel, and even recognised Jerusalem -- then retracted the remark -- as Israel's capital. Most likely, Obama would do as little as possible about the Middle East during the first stage of his presidency, if only to avoid having to deal with the Zionist lobby. In other words, the Middle East will be unaffected by the change of leaders in the US, at least for the time being. Any sure change in the Middle East will have to come from within.
