Ahead of provincial elections, Iraq's ruling Shia coalition appears on the verge of fragmenting, writes Seif Nasrawi It all started with a report last week in The New York Times that quoted security sources in Baghdad as saying at least 35 officers from the Iraqi Interior Ministry had been arrested on suspicion of plotting against Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki. The leading US paper said the officers who made the arrests were from a special counter-terrorism unit directly answerable to Al-Maliki. Some of those arrested, reported the paper, allegedly have links to Al-Awda, a façade group of members of the former ruling Baath Party. Among those who have ended up in jail are four generals, including the chief of the Traffic Police Department and several of his top officers. News of the plot caused a mixture of outrage, suspicion and confusion in Baghdad, but thanks to the power of the web and live broadcasts on television, conspiracy reports quickly turned to be leaks by some politicians jockeying for power ahead of next month's provisional elections. The vote is crucial to determining the key players in Iraq's shaky political process before the parliamentary elections slated for late next year. It is widely expected that both votes would bring about a new political map and possibly create divisions within the sectarian and political groups that have been dominating the government since the 2003 US invasion. Al-Maliki himself ridiculed the possibility of a military coup against him and his government. "The days of military coup in Iraq have gone, forever," he told a group of Iraqi journalists Saturday. Yet he accused the officers of being involved in a criminal network "to provide identity cards that allow them to carry arms against the state" -- a very serious charge that amounts to rebellion. National Security Minister Sherwan Al-Waili, whose department seemed to be behind the investigation, said the arrests were also related to violations that included forgery. But Interior Minister Jawad Al-Bolani, who is the actual commander of the officers, angrily dismissed the conspiracy charges as a political gimmick. He called them "my trusted men" and defended them as "good and national officers serving their country". Few details about those arrested were officially released, and in the strife-laden politics of Iraq everything seems to be clouded with a shroud of uncertainty. A few days before the coup reports, Iraqi police had arrested a number of individuals in some provinces and accused them of belonging to Al-Awda -- which in Arabic means "the return" -- and trying to revive Baath Party organisations. Iraqis security sources said that Al-Maliki's government has been engaged in extensive campaigns during the past six weeks to chase Al-Awda underground cells in Sunni provinces, especially Diyala where Ezzat Al-Duri, Iraq's former vice-president during Saddam Hussein's reign, is believed to be hiding. According to the Times, the alleged conspirators "were in the initial phases of planning" a coup. Iraq's modern history has been dominated by military coups all led by Sunni army officers. The alleged members of the pro- Baath group are also said to have paid bribes to obtain their ministerial posts. "The authorities found a huge sum of money and forged identification cards during the raids," a security official told Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. He added that initial leads suggest that the money came from a neighbouring Gulf state, which he declined to identify. The sources cited by the Times added that more arrests may be made as part of the same inquiry, which follows the promulgation of a law a few months back that readmitted former members of the Baath Party into public offices, putting an end to the "purge" brought in after the ousting of Saddam's regime and ostensibly aimed at healing rifts that sprang up in Iraqi society and that fostered the anti-American uprising. Like for the reasons of their arrest, it is unclear if the officers have been released or are still in detention. Conflicting reports have been pouring from Baghdad. Al-Bolani insisted that the men had been released while Al-Waili said they were still being held. The contradictory statements clearly indicate a breach between the two men along with power struggles within the government and the ruling Shia alliance. Shia officials suggest that signs of political divisions are unfolding within the United Iraqi Alliance, the ruling Shia coalition that is mainly constituted of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq run by Abdel-Aziz Al-Hakim and Al-Maliki's Daawa Party, ahead of the local elections. An independent Shia lawmaker told the Weekly that the majority of the detainees are understood as affiliated with Al-Hakim's political faction that has a long history of dominating the Interior Ministry. "Al-Maliki wanted to convey a strong message that he won't tolerate any attempt to exploit the vast resources and capabilities of the Ministry of the Interior before the elections," the lawmaker said on condition of anonymity. He added that the easiest charge to remove any political rival competing for Shia votes was to accuse them of having links with Baathists. The two main Shia factions announced this month that they would present separate electoral lists for the provincial elections. Reports of growing frictions within the ruling Shia coalition have been surfacing concerning the control of the armed forces, the nature of federalism and the establishment of the Support Councils -- military groups that are made up of pro-Maliki tribal leaders.
