Despite ups and downs, Egyptian-US relations remain ripe with potential, writes Abdel-Moneim Said Egyptian-US relations are not all centred around Palestine and the Arab-Israeli conflict. The "cause" may occupy a prominent place, but the relations also cover a host of mutual regional interests such as the preservation of stability in the Middle East and confronting all types of radical forces, which have changed considerably in ideological shade and political objectives over the past four decades. No less important is the need to support Egypt, the cornerstone for the realisation of these mutual interests since the mid-1970s. Naturally this relationship underwent fluctuations in temperature. However, even at the tensest moments, Washington and Cairo have, firstly, always abided by fundamental commitments to one another and, secondly, worked to bring the temperature back to normal in view of each side's indispensable need for the other. No US document pertaining to this relationship is without some reference to Egypt as "an important strategic partner of the US in its quest for peace in the Middle East and comprehensive stability in the region," as was stated in the bill presented to Congress for aid to Egypt in 2009. On the other side, the Egyptian president's speeches and statements, as well as the ruling party's major documents on foreign relations, contain frequent references to this central bilateral relationship. Yet in spite of the importance decision-makers in both countries attach to this relationship, even in the direst times, segments of broader intellectual and political circles have often aired doubts about the value of this relationship. For some, the misgivings are so strong that instead of a relationship founded upon mutual interest, they perceive one so riddled with contradictions as to be virtually adversarial. Of course, such perceptions are in large measure due to developments in the Arab-Israeli conflict and the divergence between Washington and Cairo's stances. However, they also arise from differences in the outlooks of the two sides, one a global power and member of the advanced industrialised world, the other a regional power and a member of the Third World, with all the inherited baggage from the colonialist era and other forms of exploitation and oppression. For whatever reasons, US-Egyptian relations have never been accorded sufficient study, in spite the evidence of their growing importance, especially to Egypt's economic and social progress. I doubt that many Egyptians would take issue with the contention that the US wields enormous global weight at this phase in the evolution of the international order, even if they might disagree over their predictions regarding how long this phase will last. But there is far less of a consensus over the extent to which Egypt benefits from its ties with Washington. One of the most widely known facts about this relationship is the volume of economic and military aid the US gives Egypt: $66.9 billion over the past few decades, of which $30.3 billion was in economic aid and $36.6 billion was in military assistance. The value of this aid extended beyond its immediate monetary value, having generated other sources and forms of Western assistance to Egypt the value of which is difficult to calculate. It also generated confidence in the Egyptian economy among international financial institutions. But, perhaps more importantly, it contributed to the modernisation and upgrading of Egyptian armed forces by promoting their contact with theoretically, technologically and technically diverse and sophisticated military schools. This aid in both its relative and absolute values has begun to recede, whether because of gradual cutbacks on the part of Washington or as a result of the growing robustness of the Egyptian economy and its increased supplies of foreign currencies. In fact, this augurs well for healthier bilateral relations, characterised more by the rational pursuit of common interests than by the inherent imbalance when one side has the power to grant or withhold aid, which had been a frequent source of tension between the two. The US is Egypt's number one trading partner in the world while Egypt is one of the US's most important markets, ranking 52nd among global trading partners. Statistics confirm the growing volume of trade between the two countries, which climbed from $6.5 billion in 2006 to $7.7 billion in 2007 and $8.4 billion in 2008. Egypt's trade with the US accounts for approximately a third of its overall international trade. In addition, the US now ranks highest in terms of the volume of remittances from Egyptians abroad, a major contributor to our country's income alongside revenues from the Suez Canal, financing from international monetary agencies and other such sources that render the US a highly influential factor on Egypt's material interests and economic development prospects. One significant phenomenon in Egyptian-US economic relations is the rising levels of US investment in Egypt over the past few years, in marked contrast to the relatively low levels of investment that had prevailed before this and that had been largely restricted to the petroleum sector. According to Barcelona: The Partnership Between the Two Banks of the Mediterranean, a paper presented by Ambassador Gamal Bayoumi to the first Franco-Egyptian seminar organised by a collection of research centres, including the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, the volume of foreign investment in Egypt in 2004 was $2,164 million, of which $246 million was from Europe, $127 million from other Arab countries and $1,101 million from the US. The US's share of the total volume of foreign investment that year was 50.8 per cent. The following year, foreign investment totalled $6,716 million, with $2,135 million from Europe, $363 million from the Arab world and $3,620 million from the US (approximately 54 per cent). Out of the total foreign investment of $10,813 million in 2006, $4,349 was from Europe, $3,274 million was from the Arab world and $3,743 million (approximately 35 per cent) from the US. In 2007, the total volume of foreign investment in Egypt came to $13,997 million of which $3,567 million was from Europe, $1,874 million from other Arab countries, and $6,700 million (or about 48 per cent) was from the US. US-Egyptian relations are thus undergoing a major shift from aid and grants to investment and trade. One of the most significant effects of this shift is that it is restructuring bilateral relations in a way that renders them less vulnerable to the ups and downs in the Arab- Israeli peace process and, hence, to third party interests and actions. The shift also underscores Egypt's "geo- economic" value, which has often been overshadowed by its "geopolitical" and "geo-strategic" values. This shift should also compel Egyptian leaders, whether in the higher decision-making circles or among the general political elite in the ruling party or in the opposition, and perhaps the broader public as well, to realise that Egyptian foreign policy has other spheres beyond the three traditional Arab, Islamic and African ones. I am referring to the American and European spheres that are so closely connected to our economic and security interests. This is not to suggest that we substitute some circles for others, or demote Arabs, Africans and Muslims in favour of Westerners. I merely believe that it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the realities that govern Egypt's foreign relations. In last week's article I pointed out various signs that signal that US-Egyptian relations have entered a new phase with the beginning of the Barack Obama administration. There I focussed on the political aspects of the relationship in light of new approaches that Obama is bringing to US policy towards Egypt, the Middle East and the world. However, perhaps it is time to extend this to all aspects of our bilateral relations with the US. For example, much greater attention should be given to joint planning in order to lift commercial and investment relations to higher levels in the free trade zone between the two countries. Greater efforts must be made to promote transparency in -- and enhance public awareness of -- what is actually taking place in our bilateral relations with the US. This should be combined with efforts to put these relations in a realistic perspective in terms of their relative value to both sides. Finally, Washington and Cairo need to underpin their bilateral relationship with the level of legitimacy it merits, because, in spite of the differences between them, it has ultimately brought them greater benefits than many others of their respective foreign relations. When President Hosni Mubarak goes to Washington on 26 May and when President Obama visits Cairo on 4 June, the Arab-Israeli conflict, dialogue with the Islamic world, smoothing out the wrinkles in Egyptian- US relations bequeathed from the Bush era will top the agenda. But we must be careful from allowing the past, regardless of how bitter a taste it has left, determine the future, which holds countless opportunities for both the Egyptian and American people for progress and mutual benefit.
