Uncertainty looms large in Iraq, writes Salah Hemeid As the deadline for the US forces to pull out of Iraq's urban centres approaches, doubts persist on whether Iraqi security forces are ready to take responsibility for cities. Concerns about setbacks mounted this week after a string of deadly attacks that killed and wounded hundreds of Iraqis. The redeployment is part of the security accord signed between Baghdad and Washington in November which requires the Americans to pull back combat troops from cities by the end of this month as a first step towards a full withdrawal by 2012. But as the Americans prepare to hand over their military outposts in towns and cities to the Iraqis, violence has sharply escalated, raising questions of whether the measure will succeed in the absence of a political settlement of Iraq's various disputes. The Iraqi government vowed that the latest attacks, including one that killed some 80 persons in Taza, a town inhabited mostly by Shia Turkomen, in Kirkuk province, would not force them to reconsider the deadline for American withdrawals, and reaffirmed the Iraqi security forces' preparedness to fill the security vacuum expected to be left by the US pullout. Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki even declared 30 June a victory day and called for national celebrations. The government claims that violence has dropped in the last few months to the lowest level since 2006 which witnessed sectarian violence following the bombing of a Shia holy shrine in Samara, north of Baghdad. It also claims that it has completed plans to prepare its fledging army and the security forces for the daunting challenge. Interior Ministry spokesman Abdul-Karim Khalaf was quoted on Sunday as saying the US withdrawal will give the Iraqis more power to deal with the violence "because they won't be limited by the need to coordinate with the Americans. That will provide a more flexible opportunity for Iraqis to reach their targets quickly," he said. Yet, critics argue that the Iraqi forces are not fully prepared to take such a responsibility and the country could face another downturn in sectarian violence if the government won't take concrete measures to end the national discord. The truck bombing in Taza was the deadliest bombing in Iraq in two months, since the bombing of the holiest Shia shrine in Baghdad that killed more than 60 people. It was followed by a series of deadly attacks in several cities including five in Baghdad where at least five people were killed and 20 were wounded by a bomb planted in a car which exploded on a road leading to the offices of the Iraqi government and US Embassy in the Green Zone. The escalation in violence has raised concern that some Iraqi cities might revert to the days of sectarian war two or three years ago if the Americans leave, especially in volatile areas such as Baghdad's Shia-dominated Sadr City and the predominantly Sunni Arab city of Mosul. There is widespread acknowledgment among Iraqis that more work needs to be done to maintain stability. Even senior Iraqi government officials, such as Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, have warned that attacks could intensify before the parliamentary election scheduled in January, posing a serious threat to Al-Maliki's government. This is why many observers believe that American soldiers who had been expected to withdraw from their bases in hotbeds such as Mosul might be allowed to stay a bit longer. The Iraqi government has said some US forces would be allowed to remain in an advisory capacity in the cities after 30 June. Under the articles of the Security Agreement the Iraqi government can make such a request and US troops will continue to provide support for Iraqi security forces. Indeed, a top brass American officer, Colonel Gary Volesky, commander of the 1st Cavalry Division's 3rd Heavy Brigade Combat Team, told Reuters on Monday a deal for his troops to stay in Mosul is under discussion with Iraqis. Some of concerns are attributed to the shortfalls in the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces, their professional and logistic preparedness and their impartiality. For example, the Iraqi army lacks heavy weapons, combat helicopters and warplanes to fight an insurgency. There are reports of low morale, inefficiency, indiscipline and corruption among the government forces. It is widely believed that the army and security forces are controlled by Shia commanders who owe their loyalties to the Shia-dominated government. Others are due to the government's failure to achieve national reconciliation with its opponents who demand an end to the US-designed ethnic and sectarian power- sharing system. With Al-Maliki's procrastination there is little prospect of a political resolution being offered any time soon to end the national rift and resolve competing claims and goals. Al-Maliki will lose the popular support he enjoyed after cracking down on unruly militias if the security forces fail to take up their duties effectively. Another key problem is that the Iraqi government has been affected by lower oil prices and the fall in revenue, making it difficult to pay for expanding its forces and improving their capabilities. Interior Ministry spokesman General Khalf disclosed this week that the ministry has requested an additional 62,000 policemen to beef up security but acknowledged that funding is problematic due to Iraq's shrinking oil revenues and budget cuts. Another problem is the fate of the Awakening Councils, the Sunni Arab militia groups, also known as Sahwa Councils, which so far have not been fully integrated into the armed forces as intended by the Americans who helped create the 120,000 strong force in an attempt to take on the insurgents and to co-opt the Arab Sunnis into the political process. The fall in violence over the last year has largely been attributed to the willingness of the former insurgents in the councils to joint in the fight against more hardline Sunni groups such as Al-Qaeda in Iraq. This April saw the Iraqi government take full charge of paying the former militia groups but it has backtracked on pledges to incorporate them into the armed forces, threatening the agreement and the return of sectarian infighting. At its core, the issue, however, is political. To combat this problem Iraq needs a credible and all-encompassing national reconciliation that will put an end to the monopoly of a few groups on power in the name of their sects or ethnicity. Optimists, such as Staffan de Mistura, who is stepping down as the top UN envoy in Iraq to the Security Council, say that recent spikes in violent attacks are "attempts by isolated elements or groups trying to produce a feeling of insecurity," but such dismissals should be viewed with scepticism. A more sober assessment is that Iraq is moving into another period of uncertainty, if not instability.
