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Russian return
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 25 - 06 - 2009

Will Moscow host a Middle East peace conference later this year? Dina Ezzat looks for answers
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's two- day visit to Cairo that ended yesterday heralds a greater Russian role in the Middle East. During extended talks with President Hosni Mubarak and a visit to the headquarters of the Arab League, where he met with its Secretary-General Amr Moussa and the representative of Arab states, Medvedev signalled that Moscow is seeking to once again become a key player in the politics, economics and military affairs of a region where the Soviet Union once held sway.
By according Medvedev a high-profile welcome, similar to that granted to US President Barack Obama earlier this month, Egypt seems determined to help the Russian comeback.
Following his talks with Mubarak -- a three-hour tête-à-tête that was followed by an expanded meeting attended by senior officials and businessmen from both sides -- Medvedev signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement. The agreement, both Mubarak and his Russian guest said, takes bilateral relations to a new platform of cooperation.
Prior to his address before representatives of the 22-member states of the Arab League Medvedev signed a Declaration of Intent that the Russian president and Moussa said opened up new vistas of cooperation on all fronts.
Throughout his visit Medvedev stressed Moscow's commitment to fostering closer cooperation not only between Russia and Egypt but with the rest of the Arab world.
Egyptian, Arab League and Russian diplomats in Cairo all say the cornerstone of future cooperation will be the peace process.
"I told President Medvedev that Egypt supports the peace conference that Russia has proposed should take place in Moscow," Mubarak said during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart.
Egyptian diplomats say that while Cairo is convinced that the US is ultimately able to bring about a peace deal it remains useful to have the support of other players, especially Russia.
Former Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested in 2007 that Moscow host a peace conference that would address the entire Arab-Israeli struggle and not just the Palestinian-Israeli file. The proposal received lukewarm support from Washington and other capitals. Israel, under then prime minister Ehud Olmert, expressed scepticism. The Arab League and Arab states welcomed the idea.
Today the situation has changed, though only slightly. Washington and other concerned Western capitals -- partners with Russia in the International Quartet on the Middle East -- are less apprehensive. However, as one Egyptian diplomat said, they are still not very forthcoming.
"France is still hoping to host a peace conference this summer -- with more of an economic angle to it but there is a sense of apprehension in the Arab world that this is designed to be an Arab-Israeli normalisation venue."
The government of Israel, under Binyamin Netanyahu, has not openly come out against the conference. What it says is that Israel will not attend if Hamas is present. Russian diplomats have solicited the support of Hamas for the conference and, according to one Russian diplomat who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity, Moscow thinks Hamas "should be included somehow in the efforts".
The possibility of convening a Moscow Middle East peace conference will be discussed later this month in Italy on the fringe of the G8 Summit. "I agreed with President Medvedev that we would pick up talks there," Mubarak said.
Mubarak and Moussa will be both present in Italy for the G8+ talks. A meeting is also scheduled to take place between the Quartet and the Arab Peace Initiative Committee at ministerial level.
In his address at the Arab League Medvedev outlined ambitious goals for the Moscow conference: it should, he said, launch a peace process that will allow for a comprehensive settlement to the Arab- Israeli struggle and a viable Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, that will live in peace with all countries of the region.
Egypt has high hopes of expanded cooperation with Russia. Mubarak and Medvedev both spoke of planned talks for a free trade agreement between the two countries -- a difficult task given the volume of incompatible trade laws in both countries. They also said that Egyptian and Russian officials will discuss the possibility of setting up a Russian Industrial Zone in Borg Al-Arab, in the north of Egypt.
Following the signing of the Strategic Partnership Agreement by Mubarak and Medvedev, senior aides signed agreements for legal and environmental cooperation. Medvedev also promised greater cooperation on energy and nuclear technology, and sources from both sides revealed military cooperation was high on the agenda of the Mubarak-Medvedev summit.
Russian officials accompanying Medvedev in Cairo say closer ties with Egypt could help Russia re-establish the "strong friendship with the whole of the Arab world" that the Soviet Union enjoyed.
Speaking to the Arab League, Moussa said that "this visit would endorse ongoing efforts to upgrade Arab-Russian relations." Moussa particularly stressed Russia's role in promoting nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East, where "the presence of one nuclear arsenal is prompting the possible presence of another [nuclear arsenal] or maybe other [arsenals]."
Russia and the Arab League are currently discussing the details of a memorandum of understanding to provide an institutional context for long-term cooperation. It is expected to be signed later this year.


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