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Jordan's summer of speculation
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 27 - 08 - 2009

What were the motives behind the recent speech by the Jordanian monarch calling for an end to "political pandemonium" in the country, asks Oula Farawati
Dressed in military attire and speaking to top army officials in the absence of the prime minister, Jordan's King Abdullah gave an unusual speech recently in which he warned against "rumours" and "suspicious agendas" and called attacks on Jordanian national unity a "disease" that needed to be dealt with firmly.
However, despite the unusual character of the speech what had provoked it was obvious: the rumours that have been circulating in the political salons and the media in the country that Jordan may accept a yet-to-be-announced US plan for Middle East peace that gives up the Palestinians' right to return in exchange for compensation.
The rumours have been wreaking havoc in Jordanian society and have been exacerbated by the rift between the two parts of the country's media, made up of the mostly state-run newspapers and the more than 30 unregulated news websites.
King Abdullah's message was harsh, with the king saying that those circulating such messages would not be allowed to threaten national unity or disturb the political process of the country.
However, analysts believe the king's message will be ineffective in the absence of a nationwide political reform process. According to the political commentator Saad Hattar, Jordan suffers from poor political representation, weak political parties and an electoral law that misrepresents the population.
In his speech, King Abdullah also re-emphasised what he called Jordan's founding principles. He said that Jordan would never abandon the Palestinians' right to return, and he told those listening that "such rumours do not exist in the countryside or in the refugee camps, but originate in the political salons of [the capital] Amman. The true Jordanians I know do not listen to such rumours," he said.
Jordan is the Middle Eastern country with the greatest number of Palestinian refugees, and the king's comments are being seen as a reaction to specific circumstances.
According to political analyst Mohamed Abu Rumman, the king's remarks are intended to send a message to a political elite that has been speculating that Jordan will "let go of" the political rights of the Palestinians, calling rumours to this effect "true and official leaks".
For Abu Rumman, the rumours are designed to act as a launch pad for "internal strife in the country that will harm the balance and identity of the system and the state."
"Paradoxically, these alien arguments have been circulating in official corridors, and they have found echoes in some Western embassies. Such talk has been growing in the absence of a solid political response to it, and it has only got worse because of the government's choice of ignoring the disease rather than trying to cure it."
Rather than identify the rumours as foreign-influenced, however, King Abdullah described them as home-grown. "Unfortunately, the majority of those who try to harm unity are from inside the country," he said, "which is shameful and against religion".
Jordan has been experiencing a summer rife with speculation, during which plans such as the decentralisation project -- a proposal that aims to empower governorates and municipalities with more political and decision-making power -- was interpreted as a political scheme aiming at allowing easier acceptance of a Palestinian state on Jordanian soil.
Rumours about rescinding the Jordanian nationality of people of Palestinian origin also continued to create confusion, with a Jordan Times editorial criticising the vagueness of the proposals that had led to the rumours, saying that they were not in line with existing legislation.
The king called the rumours about the decentralisation project "baseless", saying that they "sought to spread panic".
"It is clear that there is a state of anger and deep division among Jordanians in the absence of correct information and transparency", commented Hattar, adding that this was the result of the absence of transparent decision-making.
Hattar also pointed to the absence in Jordan of what he called "vertical transparency", meaning that even senior government officials hide information from each other, creating incoherence within the government itself.
While acknowledging the timely and politically urgent remarks made by the king, some analysts have said that more is needed from the state to guarantee that the present situation is not repeated. A situation in which the head of the state needs to send strong messages in the absence of a government that can deal with "malicious attempts that split the country and plant insecurity within the lives of ordinary Jordanians" is clearly to be avoided, Abu Rumman said.
Analyst Samih Maaita said the political salons were a "registered trademark" of people with personal agendas who either hold senior government positions or wish to assume them. They do not flourish except in the absence of genuine political life and open dialogue, he said.
On the other hand, the political commentator Jamal Tahat said that he hoped the king would now take real steps to translate his message into democratic political action.
"The formation of a strong government, the election of a parliament that is truly representative of the people, the stopping of meaningless economic projects, and the management of state resources properly is the way forward," Tahat said.
He warned that if the king's remarks were not translated into action, this would void the speech of its meaning and undermine the credibility of the system. He added that the state media should change from being one that "beautifies the ugly" into one that acts in line with the king's directives.
Soon after the speech, political activists from the right and left, together with the Islamists, gathered in Amman to discuss the Palestinians' right of return. The gathering was part of a series of events sponsored by opposition leaders and professional associations in response to reports that Israeli right- wingers have been pushing for a scheme to make Jordan an alternative homeland for the Palestinians.
It also came after Jordan's professional associations unveiled a picture advocating an end to the 15-year-old peace treaty with Israel.
For political analyst Fahed Khitan, the official and popular consensus on the issue of the Palestinian refugees is the foundation that protects national unity in Jordan.
"Over previous decades, this has been one of the most important rules of governance," he said. "Without this consensus, it would not have been possible to arrive at the National Charter or pursue the democratisation process."
For Khitan, such a consensus acts as the thermometer of national unity. "When Jordanians of different origins differ on the issue of the refugees, we worry about national unity. When they agree, the situation is the opposite," he said.
However, Khitan warned against what he called a "political settlement" of the Palestinians, which would become real if calls to amend the one-man-one-vote voting system gave Jordanians of Palestinian origin in Amman and Zarqa greater representation in parliament.
"The Islamist movement and left-wing forces should understand that clinging to the principle of parliamentary representation adds a new obstacle to efforts to reform the election law and can be used as an excuse to keep a bad law as it is," he said.
Khitan, who has urged fresh discussion on political reform in Jordan in connection with the Palestinian refugees' right of return, insists that if the Palestinians are given full political rights in Jordan this will only weaken the efforts of Palestinian and Jordanian negotiators seeking the right of return of the Palestinian refugees.
In order to prevent this being interpreted as an attempt further to marginalise Jordanians of Palestinian origin, a further "political speech from the state is required, and one that gives assurances that any reforms will not touch the sacred Palestinian right of return."


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