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Libya's long odds
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 27 - 08 - 2009

A delicate balancing act between Libya and the West is threatened by Megrahi's release from a Scottish jail and triumphant reception at home, writes Gamal Nkrumah
Abdel-Baset Al-Megrahi, in dark suit and burgundy tie, looked extremely frail and aged as he stepped down from the plane to the tarmac announcing in hushed tones that his first appointment in his homeland was to visit his 95-year-old mother. Next he would meet with the Libyan leader, he said. Evidently, Megrahi's release and reception in Tripoli was "carefully choreographed".
The glue that has kept Libya together against long odds by binding the interests of its fractious tribal and regional particularisms is its venerable leader Muammar Gaddafi. He does not have to prove anything to win popular legitimacy and there are no powerful critics and opposition cliques to overcome. Gaddafi has given his people a greater stake in the country's oil wealth than any other oil-exporting nation in the Arab world.
It is against this backdrop that outsiders must view Megrahi's hero's welcome in Tripoli's Maitiga Airport on Thursday. Running a sprawling, sparsely-populated desert oil-rich country such as Libya requires circus skills of a high order. Balancing and juggling can ensure a stable government only under the supervision of an iron-fisted strongman -- Gaddafi.
Some of the political reforms necessary are on the table. Gaddafi's son Saif Al-Islam, the heir apparent, is overseeing the reforms. And, it is Saif who flew to Scotland and returned with Megrahi only to receive the internationally contentious rapturous welcome. He understands that the world is switching focus to his father's fiefdom.
In choosing his successor, Gaddafi the father has steadied the regime he leads. Saif is seen as capable of fostering international cooperation in a way that has sometimes eluded his famously abrasive father. He is bright, articulate and energetic, but unlike his father, he is soft-spoken and diplomatic. The rising star is also an artist, a fact that suggests an uncomfortable corollary that no one of brilliance could be found in Africa's largest oil exporter. Nor should his relative youth disqualify him for leadership. His father, after all, came to power when he was only 29. That was way back in 1969 and he has been in office ever since.
The Afriquiya Airlines -- Libya's national carrier -- plane touched down at a military airport in Tripoli on 21 August. Cheering crowds awaited him. Saint Andrew's Cross, glistening white, against the azure blue skies of Tripoli flapping furiously together with the plain green flag of Libya. The Scottish government was far from enthused about this dubious honour. World leaders concluded that the unscrupulous Scots must have clinched some secret trade deal with the Libyans.
Such speculative forces are far from harmless. The Megrahi deal, if there were one in the first place, could still make a positive impact. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi declared that he was going ahead with a scheduled business trip to Libya in September. Other European leaders will, no doubt, follow suit.
In a punchy statement, contrite and emotive, Megrahi appealed to the victims of the Lockerbie disaster to lend an ear to his plea. He was a scapegoat, he re-iterated earlier statements by the Libyan government and by Megrahi's lawyers. "To those victims' relatives who can bear to hear me I say this: they continue to have my sincere sympathy for the unimaginable loss they have suffered," Megrahi confounded his critics.
"This is the joy of a lifetime," Megrahi's eldest daughter Ghada trumpeted triumphantly. "For 11 years, I did not spend the holy month of Ramadan with my son," Megrahi's nonagenarian mother squealed amid much ululation from the female members of the Megrahi family. "My son is innocent. He would not even slaughter a chicken at home," she protested.
And so the theory of Megrahi's innocence spreads. International observers have long cast doubts on the solidity of the evidence that convicted him. Gaddafi knows this. Suspicion was in the air even before Megrahi was released. Rumours are rife in Libya that Western intelligence agents poisoned Megrahi precisely because he knew too much and could reveal the truth. They had to get rid of him, the rumour-mongers insinuate.
Even as the Saltire flapped in Tripoli as it was hoisted high by hundreds of jubilating Libyans, Scotland's Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill distanced his rulings from politics, trade and business interests. "The perpetration of an atrocity and outrage cannot and should not be a basis for losing sight of who we are, the values we seek to uphold, and the faith and beliefs by which we seek to live," explained MacAskill. "In Scotland, we are a people who pride ourselves on our humanity. It is viewed as a defining characteristic."
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond conceded that the jubilant reception in Tripoli was "inappropriate". Yet, he insisted that his government acted correctly. "I think it was the right decision. I also absolutely know it was for the right reasons," stated Salmond categorically.
Be that as it may, the official reaction of the British government has been apparently enveloped in embarrassment and remorse. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband described the reception of Megrahi in Tripoli as "deeply distressing". Prince Andrew, the Duke of York, who was scheduled to visit Libya later in August, is now reconsidering his trip to Tripoli. This was to be the third visit by Prince Andrew to Libya.
Washington's reaction was swift and uncompromising. FBI Director Robert Mueller was outraged by the release of Megrahi. Tongue-in-cheek, an incensed Mueller warned in a letter to MacAskill of the dire consequences of Megrahi's release "blithely defended on the grounds of compassion".
"The interests of justice have not been served by this decision," concurred United States Attorney-General Eric Holder. "There is no justification for releasing this convicted terrorist whose actions took the lives of 270 individuals," Holder explained. "We have been in contact with the Scottish government, indicating that we objected to this," US President Barack Obama noted. It is disappointing that this statement has come from Obama, a man who sometimes shows sympathy for the underdog.
Megrahi, a Libyan intelligence officer and a former head of the national carrier Libyan Arab Airlines, was incarcerated for ten years in Scottish jails. Megrahi, who was in solitary confinement in Barlinnie Prison, Glasgow, was transferred to Greenock Prison -- in the scenic Scottish port near Glasgow as his health condition deteriorated and he was diagnosed with prostate cancer in an advanced stage. Medical practitioners in Scotland had recently given a three-month prognosis for Megrahi.
"The international politics of the situation are not, correctly in my view, a matter for the justice secretary. We are not responsible for the actions of others and I don't agree that we've damaged Scotland's reputation," stated Salmond. In deference to Washington, Salmond conceded that Megrahi's ravished reception as a hero in his homeland was a mistake on the Libyans' part. "I don't think that was wise, and I don't think that was the right thing to do." No one in his or her right mind, however, thinks that Salmond's statements matter in the least. The moral of the Megrahi ordeal is that nobody should place North Africa's golden goose in jeopardy.


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