Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon and his country's role in shaping Iraqi politics was a reminder to the Arabs that the regional balance of power was not tipping on their side, the pundits warned this week. In the London-based daily Al-Hayat Elias Harfoush indicated that the recent visit by caretaker Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki to Iran and President Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon carried the same message "of who has the most powerful voice when it comes to influence and decision-making regarding the two most important issues in the region: Iraq and Lebanon". In both cases, Harfoush explains, "we have come to learn, after experience, that the force holding sway is that of Iran, represented by those who carry out its recommendations on the ground. They do not assign any weight to the democratic process, or the interests of national accord. They are indeed 'forces'". Harfoush notes that it is difficult to talk about the rising Iranian influence over these issues without mentioning the decline in the influence of other forces, which are those with an Arab identity and affiliation. "Experience teaches us that nature abhors a vacuum," Harfoush wrote. He added that, "disintegration in Lebanon, and the state's surrender to its fate should have been compensated for by the stronger side, which found the political arena inviting and took it over." The same thing can be said about Iraq, according to Harfoush. "After the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime and the collapse of all cohesive forms of the state in Iraq, someone or something was bound to fill the vacuum. We now see Al-Maliki returning from Tehran, to remind us of the identity of the party able to undertake such a task," Harfoush maintains. Also in Al-Hayat George Semaan, wrote that "President Ahmadinejad went to Lebanon just to say that Iran is present here in the country, but also present here near the border with Israel." In "A welcomed visit", Semaan said the Iranian president came to Lebanon "to appear from Bint Jbeil and say to the Israelis, the Palestinian Authority and the Americans that the settlement issue will not pass, that he has a presence, a say and a position and to reiterate insistence on the resistance." Semaan wrote that it was as though Ahmadinejad were trying to maintain the momentum he acquired in Baghdad after he "drew up the map of the new government and tilted the balance in his own favour." In Beirut, Semaan argued, Ahmadinejad is also drawing up new and clearer borders for the game, both for Lebanon and the region, while all that is left for the others is to reconsider their positions, reshuffle their cards and redirect their stands. "He wanted to say that the issue of the resistance's arms was no longer a Lebanese affair determined by the Lebanese alone -- knowing they are unable to do that to begin with -- but had become an Iranian affair that is part of the conflict with the West and the regional balance of power," Semaan wrote. In the London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Tareq Al-Homayed wrote that Iran's support for Al-Maliki in order to ensure that he remains prime minister of Iraq for a second term is no secret. However, Al-Homayed wrote, reports that Al-Maliki called on Iran to help reconstruct Iraq during his visit to Tehran in itself represents "a genuine turnaround in efforts to ensure the safety of Iraq, the sovereignty of its territory, and freedom from subordination of any external power, whether this is the West, the Arab countries or, of course, Iran." Al-Maliki's request, Al-Homayed warns, is equivalent to giving Tehran the official green light to interfere in Iraq. "This is not just political [interference] but also includes [interference] in Iraq's security, economy, media, culture, and elsewhere. This means that Iran, which has Hizbullah in Lebanon to control the country through force of arms, today has an entire nation at its disposal, and that is Iraq," Al-Homayed wrote. Al-Homayed describes it as "the second stage in the Iranian plans. "The first stage was Tehran -- following the collapse of the regime -- utilising funds to plant its men and arms throughout Iraq, in order to invest in post-Saddam Iraq. Today, following the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, Tehran is reaping what it sowed following the collapse of the Saddam regime," Al-Homayed wrote. In "Don't worry... the Syrian-Iranian axis is alive and well" Adel Al-Toraifi wrote that this was the message of the Syrian-Iranian summit held in Tehran on Saturday between President Bashar Al-Assad and President Ahmadinejad, and in which the supreme leader of Iran Ali Khamenei also participated. In Asharq Al-Awsat Al-Toraifi noted that this is President Al-Assad's fifth visit to Iran since Ahmadinejad came to office and took place at a time when the Lebanese and Iraqi arenas, as well as that of the Palestinian, are witnessing a number of complications. Al-Toraifi also noted that only 20 days separated this visit from President Ahmadinejad's visit to Damascus, which itself came less than a week after meetings between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Syrian counterpart, and the Syrian president's meeting with US MidEast peace envoy George Mitchell and the Iraqiya bloc leader Iyad Allawi. "This shows that Syria remains active in playing the role of mediator between Iran and the outside world, and that it is the Arab country with the most influence on Iran," Al Toraifi wrote. Al-Toraifi said he was aware that this did not mean that the Syrian-Iranian axis had succeeded, and that others have failed. But, he argues, it does reveal that the resistance axis -- as it is called -- is capable of overcoming the difficulties that it faces and undermining the opportunity for genuine peace and stability in the region. "Many of those who bet on the emergence of a real axis to oppose the Syrian-Iranian alliance are now facing disappointment," Al-Toraifi contends. "The Syrian-Iranian alliance will continue so long as the diagram of regional alliances with America remains constant without change. We will not see a Syrian-Iranian divorce anytime soon so long as the internal situation in both countries remains the same. Until that time, don't worry. The Syrian-Iranian axis is alive and well!"
