While Egypt faces numerous interconnected challenges following the landmark 25 January Revolution, with effective planning and mobilisation, the nation can rise again to former glories, writes Mohsen Zahran The 25 January peaceful youth revolution has been a shining landmark on the terrain of Egyptian history from the time Pharaoh Menes unified Upper and Lower Egypt into one nation. The revolution's surge against corruption, tyranny, injustice and denial of basic human rights was symbolised in the declaration of its noble objectives of "bread, freedom, dignity, and social justice," which claimed admiration and unanimous support from around the globe. Throughout the 18 days of the revolution until Hosni Mubarak stepped down on 11 February 2011, a strong national bond of all national factions, irrespective of colour, origin, gender, age, religion or income level, united admirably the national fabric. It ignited national pride among the multitudes of millions that assembled day and night in squares like Tahrir in most major Egyptian cities. These were historic, indelible and truly magnificent demonstrations of people power that will remain immortal -- a model and example for people everywhere. However, when Mubarak entrusted the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to run the affairs of the nation, the innocent revolutionaries trusted that a brief smooth transitional period would follow, to prepare the nation for true parliamentary democracy. This period was believed to culminate into a new constitution, coupled with needed economic, social and cultural change that would insure the implementation of the objectives of the revolution for which 1000 youth gave their lives, and over 5000 were wounded. Yet the actual performance and conduct of the military was a mixture of inexperience, indecision, tacit approval of the creation of countless political parties in order to induce "divide and rule," trigger infighting, and spark strikes in various cities, so as to serve their interests. This was accompanied with a virtual breakdown of governmental operations, indifference, apathy, lawlessness, chaos, terrorism, violence, and a continuing failure of national social services and public utilities, together with serious shortages of electricity, water, gasoline, and even bread. Certainly, this nightmare, which persisted for 18 long months, was never expected, or even imagined, as an outcome of the noble revolution. Nevertheless, one positive achievement that should be fairly accredited to SCAF is its insistence on holding national elections for parliament and a new civilian president, after 60 years of totalitarian rule by ex-military presidents since the 23 July 1952 coup d'état. Despite the installation of the new president 30 June 2012, and the formation of a new cabinet from the Muslim Brotherhood, SCAF still retained legislative authority, sharing national powers with the new president. But Mohamed Mursi was smart enough to unseat SCAF 40 days later, retiring the top brass and claiming all powers to himself and the Brotherhood, who de facto run the country now. An objective overview of the present Egyptian condition is indeed disturbing, disappointing and distressing. This is not what the January revolution longed for, planned for or aspired to. Except for transparent elections, very little else has been achieved: MILITARILY: Although Field Marshal Tantawi had threatened that the armed forces would use its iron fist to squash any aggression on Egypt's borders, it is puzzling that SCAF, which was relieved of its political obligations in running the country by 30 June 2012, was caught unprepared to confront the terrible murder of 16 soldiers near the border between Sinai and Gaza at Rafah. This shocking aggression on Egypt (Palestinians/Hamas/Israel), the first in 40 years, leaves many questions unanswered, especially that intelligence reports had warned of the pending attack two days earlier, regardless of the justified blame on the peace treaty's restrictions on military hardware in the border zone. The army rushed to combat and eradicate fanatical Islamic Jihad terrorists in hideouts in the Sinai mountains -- a mission expected to be lengthy and costly. Remember Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas allegiance. The age-old axiom warns that forgotten land is a lost land. On a different front, it is curious to note the tacit alliance between SCAF and the Muslim Brotherhood from the very beginning, even during the last waning days of Mubarak. This collusion resulted in the Islamic parties winning the elections miraculously, and once in control they renege on their promises, turning against their former allies. Since their early alliance with the military, the Muslim Brotherhood is known to reverse their tactics, deny their promises and change their course in order to achieve their hidden agenda. Indeed, politics harbours strange bedfellows. POLITICALLY: The Muslim Brotherhood is working diligently to dominate the Constituent Assembly, in order to control the executive and legislative branches, and even the judiciary. Their objectives and familiar tactics of exclusiveness and implementation of their operations at all levels, institutions, syndicates, labour unions and establishments, covertly or overtly, are well known. We are awaiting the adoption of the new constitution in a national referendum that is expected to be popularly approved, according to the earlier "scenario" of March 2011. This will be followed by parliamentary elections this fall. The political opposition is meanwhile futile, ineffectual and impotent, since it is made up of countless weak parties, associations, and factions who squabble and fight, rendering them powerless. On the other hand, one should note the prevalence of a new, multi-coloured spectrum of political leanings and configurations: from liberals to conservatives, from the extreme radical right to the extreme left, from moderate Islamists to the fanatic Salafis, and from conformists to anarchists. These opposing factions are bound to shape the future political arena. SOCIALLY: The Egyptian population have now reached nearly 90 million people (2.2 per cent is the annual population growth rate) and suffers from illiteracy, unemployment, economic deprivation, lawlessness, armed gangs, mushrooming squatter developments sprouting everywhere, shortage of resources, inadequate basic services and last, but not least, diminishing hope. The strong bond of the early days of the revolution seems to have disintegrated, and even evaporated, leaving social aggregates and communal entities more divided. At present, there is an alarming dissolution of the social fabric as well as ethical references, despite the apparent persistence on performing religious rituals, regardless of daily life and practices. The "divide and rule" policy has succeeded in implanting a serious virus of apathy, animosity, resistance, violence, and anti-social conduct, disorderliness, chaos, challenge of national references (whether spiritual, legal or material), anti-institutional groups, anti-management attitudes, and simply anti-government and anti-authority reactions. It is now difficult for any department head to manage or enforce laws or regulations -- an anarchy in its ugliest face and practice! This will eventually cause, alas, a sudden breakdown of government and a serious wear and tear in the institutional and social fabric. It will induce serious fissures in the national structure, threatening national institutions with tragic consequences. ECONOMICALLY: The economic situation in Egypt has been declining even before the revolution. It has dipped sharply since February 2011. The economic rate of growth has slowed down to less than two per cent; the inflation rate has spiralled upward beyond 20 per cent; and the Central Bank has been bemoaning the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves, with the pound's value falling, reaching LE6.1 against the US dollar, down 10 per cent since January 2011. Tourism, the major hard currency earner, has never recovered with various tourist sites in Sinai, in Upper Egypt or in the Red Sea remaining mostly vacant due to group cancellations owing to instability, insecurity and stagnation. Moreover, unemployment is rising steadily, given work stoppages, economic decline, loss of exports, and the rise of imported goods. In addition, both industrial and agricultural production is declining. It has been reported that nearly 50 per cent of the youth, aged 15-35, is unemployed. The government budget deficit is worsening; thus, there is a persistent need to apply for loans from the World Bank, the IMF, as well as Arab Gulf countries that voiced promises of pending support that is yet to materialise. How can the hopes of the revolution, social justice and employment be achieved with the current limited resources and economic deprivation? However, it is puzzling that despite this economic depression, Egyptians seem to spend on luxuries apathetically. Observers point out that the Egyptian informal economy constitute nearly 40 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), which runs unreported, uncontrolled, untaxed and survives in oblivion, employing multi-millions, and supporting many families. Nevertheless, while there are not enough power stations to meet rising electricity consumption, the rush to buy and install air-conditioning units in dwellings is rising. Ramadan light decorations are hung everywhere unabashedly, resulting in frequent blackouts. Water treatment plants do not have enough water to treat and pump into the network, resulting in periodic and prolonged cuts in the water supply system. Yet there is a rise in rice plantations, which consume huge water quantities, coupled with extravagant water consumption in urban areas. Nobody gives due attention to conservation, or to the serious national challenge of losing our current share of the River Nile of 55.5 billion m3, although Egypt actually consumed more than 80 billion m3 last year. Governments have not negotiated earnestly with the 11 countries sharing the River Nile region, which demand the reduction of Egypt's share, in order to reach an equitable new accord to meet the rising demand. ENVIRONMENTALLY: There is a serious violation of all environmental laws and regulations. Solid waste is piling in streets with local government's operations almost coming to a halt. Furthermore, in flagrant challenge to urban regulations and order, piles of construction rubbish are disposed of on highway embankments, on public streets and on waterfronts, in direct defiance of the law. Water pollution of canals, of the River Nile tributaries, and on waterfronts is omnipresent everywhere. Visual pollution is offensive in the streets, on building facades, in the form of banners, graffiti, wall paintings, slogans, billboards and posters, together with a shameless kaleidoscope of colours, dresses, forms, shapes, signs, finishes and materials. These images are in utter discord and with one another. Noise pollution is also rising exponentially, with people screaming and insulting one another, cars honking and donkeys braying, constituting a serious health hazard. In addition, urban pollution in the form of flagrant violations of urban laws and regulations is a serious threat to the meanings of urbanity, of order, commitment, identity and character. Demolition of architectural and urban heritage icons is continuing unabashed in violation of legal restrictions. Illegal 20-storey towers are sprouting feverishly everywhere on small lots, with speedy construction capabilities, in order to avoid legal action by municipalities, a dangerous practice that threatens the very safety of structures, disregarding building codes and the required factors of safety. Already a couple of new towers have collapsed recently, a dramatic warning to all. However, there is no slowdown or formal intervention. In addition, this wave of urban congestion and sprawl results in the overloading of the electricity grid, blockages of sewage, as well as straining an already insufficient and limited water supply. This alarming situation will contribute to a sharp increase in urban, housing and building densities, which will multiply current unbearable congestion, as well as the breakdown of urban systems and networks. Meanwhile, squatter and informal building developments are mushrooming relentlessly inside and outside urban areas, causing intolerable conditions for those who are illegally housed in such communities, which now accommodate nearly 25 per cent of the Egyptian urban population. These illegal settlements have become urban insults and testament to urban decay, a direct degradation of urban order, as well as the defamation of urban character with no solution in sight. Such social concentrations are like ghettos: they are havens of crime, narcotics, violence, lawlessness, a vacuum in human conscience, breeding nests of hatred, immorality and disintegration of social order, in addition to being serious threats to moral, social and legal frameworks. These shameful conglomerations are truly an alarming deterioration of national existence and threaten national survival. CULTURALLY: The challenge to government authority combined with the resistance to, and violent reaction against, police brutality, as evidenced during the revolution, has resulted in a concerted challenge of -- and confrontation with -- any type of authority or law. This has become a dangerous virus, infecting every aspect of individual and communal conduct, behaviour and performance. Evidence of such challenges is abundant, seen daily in rising street quarrels, gang fights, daily assaults, protests and strikes, as well as frequent roadblocks, to barricade, to obstruct and to strangle traffic on national highways and railways. This trend of civil disobedience has become commonplace everywhere. Direct gang attacks on policemen and police stations are not infrequent. There is simply no respect of law, discipline or order, coupled with a magnified focus on self-interest and selfishness at the expense of others. In addition, the Egyptian cultural fabric and individual conduct are invaded by imported customs and lifestyles, transplanted from the West as well as Gulf countries, with all their contrasts and conflicts, which are incongruent with homeland traditions and lifestyles. We are mostly imitators, and hardly initiators. Meanwhile, religion, which used to dominate Egyptian public life and Egyptian conduct, is practiced only in form but rarely in practical daily life. Spiritual, moral or ethical values have barely helped to stop or contain the decline of personal conduct, communal strife or illegal practices. The law-abiding citizen of civilised society has become non-existent in Egypt, regardless of education, income, age, social status or cultural identity. In retrospect, these examples of national challenges and ailments are tragically serious and, indeed, should never be neglected or ignored, for they tear down and destroy the national fabric, and threaten age-old national values and national identity. This is not what the 25 January Revolution longed for, or even hoped for. Egypt can, should and will overcome these threats and heed these serious warnings, since their disregard is tantamount to treason. Egypt has been the leading pivotal leader of the region for centuries. After decades of withdrawal, this prominent role must be reasserted unequivocally, politically, socio-economically and culturally. Consequently, a national roadmap for essential reform, for inherent change and total uplifting is urgently called for. This "National Revival and Recovery Plan" should include: - A Comprehensive National Integrated Development Plan capitalising on the forgotten, deserted regions of Egypt, especially Sinai, Upper Egypt, Qattara Depression and the eastern desert oases corridor. The goal is phased, integrated, urban-rural industrial and agricultural progress in entire Egypt. - A National Defence Plan for safeguarding Egypt's borders, east, west, south and north by focusing on maximum military preparedness coupled with the development of productive/ defensive conglomerations that bolster the defence strategy, achieve perennial development and ensure the continuing prosperity of regional zones, which are invariably threatened by both friends and foes. - A National Energy and Water Plan that supports and encourages desalinisation plants on the Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts has become indispensable in order to meet future energy and water shortages, in addition to the production of needed electricity from renewable sources, using the Masdar example of the United Arab Emirates as a proven guide. A new equitable Nile Basin accord must be negotiated and concluded as soon as possible. - A National Plan for Education and Healthcare Reform is mandatory and should be given top priority. Recent Malaysian and Chinese achievements have recognised and capitalised on this necessity, which has boosted their economies and propelled their respective leaps forward. There is no alternative. This plan must be a national priority, and needs to be comprehensively implemented. - A National Road Transportation Plan to cover comprehensively the total development needs of the nation is mandatory, starting from the North Corridor to the east and west corridors and south corridor with parallel corridor grids east-west and north-south, with the Nile valley as the principal spine. A new capital for a new Egypt, a national undertaking, which I personally supported and initiated six years ago, has become a must, to be planned and implemented urgently. There is no use in piecemeal urban development projects in the Greater Cairo metropolitan area, whether in the form of ring roads, tunnels, bridges, or underground Metro lines, for they will not reform or uplift the deteriorated and congested capital. Cairo is burdened, overloaded with the escalating pressures of surrounding new towns that are dependent on the old city, leading to further congestion, dilapidation and deterioration. The example of Brazil, a rising economic world power, in building its new capital, Brasilia, in the hinterland away from the urban corridor of Rio/San Paolo on the Atlantic Ocean, should be a guiding example. - A National Population Redistribution Plan, integral with these proposed national plans should accommodate housing, jobs and needed facilities and services to serve the nation's projected 150 million people by 2050. Egypt has been historically dependent on agriculture, and the problem of hunger will become a global phenomenon that will require nations to harvest deserts and ocean floors. This must be a national undertaking, for land and people are Egypt's precious capital that needs to be truly focused upon. The challenges are enormous, the problems abound, the obstacles seem insurmountable, but the will to change and the resolve to thrust forward are abundant, as the horizons are boundless, open and ready. The writer is professor emeritus of urban planning, Alexandria University.
