As the battle in Syria continues to rage, Iraq's reaction has been inadequate and perplexing, writes Salah Nasrawi With the upheaval in neighbouring Syria steadily sliding into full-blown civil war, making Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's days in power look numbered, Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki appears to be in a state of indecision, even though the future of Iraq may also hinge on the outcome of the Syrian crisis. Iraq, among all Syria's neighbours, is expected to be the worst impacted by the regional fallout of the Syrian uprising. Like Iraq, Syria is a religious and cultural mosaic, and the conflict in Syria could lead to further ethnic and sectarian polarisation in Iraq, with different groups having to choose sides. As the violence spirals, many Iraqis have been wondering whether Al-Maliki's government has a clear strategy to manage the consequences of the Syrian upheaval and if it is prepared to deal with the spillover of the expected chaos on its doorstep. The collapse of Al-Assad's Alawite-dominated regime could put Syria's Arab Sunni majority in power in Iraq's western neighbour and embolden Iraqi Sunnis who are challenging Shia control in Iraq, thus exacerbating the country's sectarian tensions. Syrian Kurds, who have already seized control of some towns and are said to be contemplating a self-ruled region after Al-Assad's downfall, are expected to lend their support to their Iraqi Kurdish brethren, who are already defying the Shia-led government in Baghdad over power and resources. Yet, despite these high stakes for many observers Al-Maliki's thinking on the turmoil in Syria seems to be in disarray. Following last week's escalation of the street fighting in the Syrian capital Damascus between government troops and rebels and the bombing that killed several members of Al-Assad's inner circle, Al-Maliki's government called for all Iraqi citizens living in Syria to return home immediately. The UN estimates that there are some one million Iraqi refugees in Syria, and so far only a few thousand have left either by road or been airlifted from Damascus. Many of the refugees are believed to be loyalists to former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein, and some might even have been involved in the Sunni insurgency in Iraq and therefore be reluctant to return home. Critics argue that Al-Maliki's government has not spelled out plans on how to deal with them if and when they return, including whether they will be given amnesty as part of a national accommodation that would involve them in the political process. Al-Maliki's position on the Syrian refugees has also been mired in uncertainty. On Monday, he ordered Iraqi police and the Iraqi Red Crescent to receive Syrian refugees in Iraq and to provide them with services. The decision came a day after a government spokesman said Iraq was unable to receive Syrian refugees because of poor logistics and the difficult security situation in the country. Iraq up to now has not been prepared to receive Syrian refugees, and Al-Maliki's decision to do so might have been prompted by a decision by the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq to receive up to 9,000 Syrian refugees and criticism by many Iraqis of their government's ignoring of the Syrians' plight. Another sign of Al-Maliki's confusion has been the way he has dealt with the opposition to Al-Assad in Syria, especially the armed rebels who have been seizing power in many parts of the country. After last week's escalation of the conflict in Syria, Al-Maliki ordered more troops to be sent to the border after Syrian opposition forces had taken control of some crossings with Iraq, probably for fear that Syrian rebels will establish footholds along the border. The Iraqi media reported later that Al-Maliki had asked Sunni tribes to help police the border areas because the government did not have enough troops to secure Iraq's cities against increasing terrorist attacks. Critics noted that these same tribes have been accused by the government of harbouring Al-Qaeda operatives and smuggling weapons and fighters to the Syrian rebels. One manifestation of the government's problems came this week when the leader of Al-Qaeda's affiliate in Iraq claimed on Saturday that the militant network was returning to its strongholds in Iraq. The leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, praised the Syrian uprising against the al-Assad regime and called on militants to come to Iraq to join his group also. A day later, at least 100 people were killed and more than 300 wounded in the single bloodiest day in Iraq this year. The attacks were aimed at predominantly Shia areas and at Shia army and police posts. Similar attacks in the past have been claimed by Al-Qaeda, and Iraqi officials have repeatedly asserted that the group is behind the uprising against Al-Assad. On the political level, Iraq has also been exposed, with the Baghdad government rejecting a call on Monday by the Arab League for Al-Assad to give up power and his opponents to form a new government. Iraqi government spokesman Ali Al-Dabbagh said that the ouster of Al-Assad was "the sole responsibility of the Syrian people and others should not interfere in it". Iraq, which is currently holding the rotating presidency of the Arab summit, has failed to use this in a direction advantageous to Iraq's interests. Many Iraqis are appalled by the Al-Maliki's government's failure to prop up the Syrian opposition and build relations with it, hoping to turn it into a potentially malleable neighbour. If Al-Maliki is concerned about Iraq's stability, observers ask, why is he not seeking to influence events in a country whose turmoil could be inextricably related not only to his own survival but also to Iraq's future. The way Al-Maliki has reacted to the Syrian crisis has shown him to be going in different directions, uncertain about how to handle the crisis next door. This failure has not only been the result of bad luck. Instead, it has been the predictable consequence of Al-Maliki's lack of a coherent strategy on Syria, the Iraqi prime minister having not drawn up a plan for what to do when Al-Assad falls and how to deal with his successor. Sooner or later, Iraq will need to decide how to react to the changes afoot in Syria. At a time of alarming geopolitical instability, Iraq needs to show strategic thinking and an ability to prioritise. Tragically, Al-Maliki seems to have failed to recognise the need to do so.
