Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki visited Tehran this week, amid worsening bickering between Ankara and Baghdad, writes Salah Nasrawi Amid rising tensions with neighbouring Turkey, a new low in the country's Arab ties, and deepening crisis among the Kurds and Sunnis, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki flew to Tehran this week to seek Iranian help in consolidating his authority, as his political rivals accused him of trying to build a new dictatorship in Iraq and prepared attempts to dislodge him from power. Al-Maliki's two-day visit to Iran followed scathing attacks from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who accused his Iraqi opposite number of fanning divisions among the Iraq's Shias, Sunnis and Kurds amid signs that Ankara has been supporting efforts to replace Al-Maliki with another Shia politician. The visit also comes on the heels of an Arab summit meeting in Baghdad, hailed by Al-Maliki as a victory in his efforts to patch up differences with Arab Sunni nations, many of which are critical of his ties with Shia Iran. Iranian leaders have expressed their full support and confidence in Al-Maliki, promising closer ties. Iran's first vice president, Mohamed Reza Rahimi, even suggested that the two Shia-ruled neighbours should be "united in an all-out manner to become a major power in the world". By contrast, Baghdad's relations with Ankara have plunged further recently, after Erdogan and Al-Maliki accused each other of trying to incite sectarianism in Iraq and building a case for its division. Further damage was done last week when Erdogan called Al-Maliki an "egocentric politician" and warned that Turkey would not remain silent if a sectarian conflict erupted in Iraq. Al-Maliki then accused Turkey of engaging in "unjustified interference in Iraq's internal affairs" and aiming to "control the region". The exchange was one of the most heated that have taken place between the two leaders since tensions flared up in December after the government in Iraq issued an arrest warrant against Iraqi Vice President Tariq Al-Hashemi, a leader of the mainly Sunni Iraqiya bloc, on charges of running a death squad and terrorism. Since then Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi has left Baghdad, claiming that he is the target of Iranian-planned assassination attempts, while another leader, Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Al-Mutleq, was abruptly sacked. Al-Hashemi himself escaped to Kurdish- controlled northern Iraq and later sought refuge in Turkey. Ankara, which helped form the Iraqiya bloc following inconclusive elections in 2010 in a bid to end the political deadlock in Iraq, has said that it considers the crackdown on the Iraqiya leaders to be an affront to attempts to prevent the resurgence of Shia-Sunni conflict in Iraq. However, behind the rhetoric there is also a regional struggle over Iraq's future, something which led Al-Maliki to travel to Tehran to show Turkey, the Kurds and Iraqi Sunni leaders that he was not alone and that he has a strong regional ally. Turkey will see Al-Maliki's visit to Tehran as being an act of defiance that could add to the political tensions between Ankara and Baghdad and the growing competition between Turkey and Iran for influence in Iraq following the US troop withdrawal last December. Turkey is concerned that Al-Maliki is trying to sideline Sunni political groups, weakening the Kurdish leadership in northern Iraq, and that he want to hoard power and ensure Shia dominance. In Ankara's view, all these things could be causes of instability and could lead to clashes between Iraq's three main communities. Turkey has also been showing signs of concern about the rise of what its officials have called a "Shia Crescent" in the region that would tilt the strategic balance of power towards its historic rival Iran. The notion of this Crescent, which emerged after the rise of Iraq's Shias following the collapse of the Sunni-dominated regime led by former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in the 2003 US-led invasion, indicates that its geographical stretch could link Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and Syria. However, many Iraqi Shias counter that Ankara is trying to act as a Sunni power in the country through building strong ties with Iraqi Sunnis and ethnic Kurds who are also Sunni Muslims. Iraqi officials have recently been suggesting that Erdogan has been trying to convince Iraqiya and Kurdish leaders who have fallen out with the Baghdad Shia-led government to forge a new political alliance that could oust Al-Maliki as prime minister. Tension has risen in recent weeks between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government over the distribution of power and wealth, and Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani has repeatedly threatened to hold a referendum on independence from Iraq. Last week, Erdogan met with Al-Hashemi and Barzani in Istanbul, also traveling to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to discuss the Iraqi government crisis and Turkish aims in the region. Although Turkey claims that is motivated by concerns of instability in its southern neighbour, many analysts believe that Ankara's policy towards Iraq is largely driven by its rivalry with Iran and fears about the rise of a Shia arc that would stretch from Iran to Lebanon. Some analysts believe that Ankara's policy seems to be aimed at driving the Iraqi Kurds into joining the Sunni Arabs in an alliance based on their religious identity, rather than ethnicity, to face up to Shia domination. If the policy succeeds, it could be part of Ankara's long-term strategy to promote a greater role for itself in Iraq and to prevent a Kurdish state being born on its southern borders were Iraq to break into pieces. An independent Kurdish entity would be a nightmare for Ankara since Turkey has long been fighting a Kurdish rebellion of its own. However, the policy is not expected to pay off, since Iraqi Kurds, who fear Turkish hegemony as much as they resent Baghdad's centralism, are expected to resist it. After returning from Turkey, Barzani said that Iraqi "Kurds have a unified position that they should not be involved in the Shia-Sunni conflict in Iraq." Iraqi Sunnis Arabs, who have been resisting Iranian hegemony, will also be embarrassed about welcoming Turkish protection, although they might need outside help to balance Iranian influence. Iraq's Sunni Arab neigbours are also in an awkward position. While they have condemned Iranian influence in Iraq, they must also be worried about any scenario in which Turkey would be the dominant power in Iraq. The United States and other Western nations with an interest in Iraq, a critical part of the strategic future of the Middle East, are not expected to allow Turkey to go its own way either in increasing its influence in Iraq and the region. There have been signs that the Obama administration, which does not want the Iraqi crisis to flare up just months before the US presidential elections, is not happy with the sectarian approach adopted by Erdogan, which it fears may increase tensions. One sign of this has been US acceptance of the 23 May meeting to be hosted in Baghdad between Iran and the 5+1 group of nations to discuss Tehran's disputed nuclear programme. The meeting will come as a major boost to Al-Maliki and an appeasement to Tehran, which had insisted on moving the venue of the meeting from Istanbul to Baghdad. Given these things, Erdogan's sectarian approach to the Iraqi crisis may be a step in the wrong direction. It may deepen the country's sectarian divide and bring the day of Iraq's disintegration closer, the only explanation being that Turkey has already started preparing for it.
