Push is coming to shove in the presidential race. Dina Ezzat elbows in on the action In two weeks the Presidential Elections Commission (PEC) is due to announce the final list of presidential candidates. Of the 23 officially registered, three or four might have to exit the race, among them Salafist lawyer cum preacher Hazem Salah Abu Ismail. Recent revelations his mother was a US citizen, if true, mean he cannot fulfill the nationality requirements demanded of candidates. On Sunday Abu Ismail held a press conference at which he claimed his mother possessed a green card but had never taken out US citizenship. Muslim Brotherhood candidate Khairat El-Shater may also be forced to withdraw following questions over the legality of the pardon he is said to have received from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) for earlier convictions. If El-Shater does manage to stay in the race then Mohamed Mursi, leader of the Muslim Brotherhood's political arm the Freedom and Justice Party, will pull out. He was only put forward as a backup to El-Shater. Omar Suleiman, a stalwart of the Mubarak regime who emerged as a candidate at the 11th hour and is said to enjoy the support of the ruling generals, might also have to step down if a draft bill that seeks to ban senior Mubarak-era figures from standing in elections is approved. If Suleiman is given a red card then Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak's last prime minister, will also be forced out of the field. With Suleiman, Shafik, Abu Ismail and El-Shater out, the front runners would be former Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa, former member of the Muslim Brotherhood Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fottouh, and the Brotherhood's own Mursi. While Moussa and Abul-Fottouh have built up their own broad based constituencies over months of campaigning Mursi, who only registered his backup candidature on Monday, will be forced back onto the Brotherhood's core vote. Other candidates remaining in the race include Arab-nationalist Hamdeen Sabahi, judge Hisham El-Bastawisi and long-time anti-corruption activist, lawyer Khaled Ali. Most analysts expect both Abu Ismail and El-Shater will be disqualified. The evidence that the former's mother did indeed take out US citizenship looks increasingly compelling, while El-Shater's pardon is in essence the same as that granted to Ayman Nour, who has already been banned from the race. Suleiman and Shafik, on the other hand, enjoy support within SCAF which is likely to block the draft bill banning their nominations unless there are massive anti-Suleiman demonstrations. If Suleiman does remain as a candidate then the real battle, say many commentators, will be to forge a ticket capable of defeating him. Tactically, they argue, the "dream ticket" could not be headed by an Islamist since that would play into Suleiman campaign's hands given the line they will be pushing will be either Suleiman or a president determined to impose mediaeval norms of life. A meeting hosted by the Wasat Party on Monday evening considered a variety of scenarios. According to participants the meeting contemplated permutations of all the key candidates. "Amr Moussa was present because even though he served as foreign minister under Mubarak in the 1990s, unlike some revolutionary forces we do not qualify him as a remnant of the old regime," said a Wasat Party member. The smart money, for now at least, is on a ticket with Moussa as presidential candidate and both Abul-Fotouh and Sabahi as vice presidents. "In theory it is possible but I cannot say all the parties are convinced," says one source close to the negotiations. "What it is safe to say is that there is an awareness that Suleiman cannot be taken lightly and a growing awareness that none of the current candidates can beat him on their own." According to Diaa Rashwan, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, a stand-off between Suleiman and the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, be it El-Shater or Mursi, would serve to accentuate the already exacerbated polarisation in the presidential race. Already the race was dividing along Islamist-non-Islamist lines, argues Rashwan. With the last minute nomination of Suleiman the dynamic has been complicated by the appearance of a serious Mubarak regime figure. "Of course this does not negate the fact that there are three camps: one comprising old regime faces, one comprising Islamists, with which Abul-Fotouh can be associated, and independents with which Moussa can be classed," says Rashwan. If those opposed to the old regime want to emerge victorious then they have two choices, says Rashwan. They must reduce the number of candidates, jettisoning anyone who does not have a realistic hope of victory, and they must rally behind candidates capable of winning undecided voters. This latter course means taking care to alienate neither core voters, nor those who have yet to make up their mind but might shy away from anything that appears too extreme. Ultimately, argues activist Wael Khalil, it is possible to shirk off any challenge posed by candidates of the ilk of Suleiman and Shafik, whatever establishment support they may command. "We are stronger than we give ourselves credit for," Khalil insists. "It is inconceivable, after what Egypt has passed through, that Suleiman can become the next president of Egypt." Khalil cites events on 25 January this year, the first anniversary of the uprising that led to Mubarak's ouster, as evidence for his view. "A year after the revolution, 12 months in which revolutionaries were attacked and discredited by the authorities and in which the economy and security suffered, and still millions took to the streets," he says. "On a smaller scale, during the launch of Abul-Fotouh's campaign in Al-Azhar Park, you saw a gathering of representatives from across the ideological spectrum. The message such gatherings send is that the voice of the revolution is still strong and can still make itself heard."
