To fulfil the potentials of the agriculture sector and achieve self-sufficiency in strategic crops, Egypt needs an urgent plan, Mona El-Fiqi reports Egypt has many natural assets that enable it to develop a flourishing agricultural sector, yet it remains a net food importer, causing much pressure on its foreign currency reserves. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced this week that foreign reserves dropped to reach $20 billion in November 2011, compared to $36 billion in January 2011, mainly due to a high imports bill and lower revenues following the political unrest in the aftermath of the 25 January Revolution. The international food crisis in 2008 raised concerns of food security across the whole world. In Egypt, the issue is more serious since there is a large gap between production and consumption which has been increasing due to rapidly growing population. "It is time now to give the agricultural sector priority on the country's agenda so that it could feed itself," said Ashraf Kamal Abbas, professor of economics at the Economic Research Agricultural Institute. According to Abbas, the agricultural sector deteriorated for many reasons on top of which was that "there was no real political will to promote the sector during the past few decades since the government always worked on a rent seeking policy, neglecting the agricultural sector completely." The sector is suffering from a clear reduction of fertile lands due to a real estate sector that has grown at the expense of arable lands for tens of years. The problem was exacerbated after the revolution, when many people took advantage of the absence of police and security forces and rushed to build more houses on fertile lands in violation of the law which considers this a serious crime, according to Abbas. In figures, cultivated lands were estimated at 8.74 million feddans in 2009/2010, down from 8.78 million feddans in 2008/2009, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS). Abbas expects that 2011 figures will be considerably lower. The second reason for the deterioration of the agricultural sector, according to a study conducted recently by the Egyptian Society for Political Economics and Statistics, is lack of investments. The share of agriculture on the total country's investments map is very moderate. During the period from 2000 to 2009, the study said, total investment in the agricultural sector was LE7.8 billion, representing seven per cent of total investments in different economic sectors estimated at LE115.9 billion Another reason is the lack of organisations that support farmers, defend their interests, and help them buy production needs, as well as providing them with easy-term loans and market their production. The study argues that farmers, of whom 90 per cent own lands less than five feddans, and 43 per cent own lands less than one feddan, are left to decide which crop to cultivate according to the highest profit margin regardless of the importance of the crop at the local market. This creates an unbalanced market. Experts argued that priority should be given to strategic crops, not to cash crops, in order to help achieving food security. Abbas said that a comprehensive plan should be applied to decide the most needed crops, provide support to farmers, and help in marketing. In an attempt to promote agriculture, in 2009 the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation decided to apply a Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy (SADS). It is a long-term plan aimed at achieving comprehensive economic and social development based on the agricultural sector by 2030. Abbas commented that SADS was a very promising plan since it included vital issues such as analysis for the embodiments of agricultural development, human resources development and saving water resources. It also included a chapter on special characteristics of each governorate and methods of consumption rationalisation. However, Abbas said, "the strategy remained in the drawers and nothing happened. It was never applied because there was no real political will to promote the sector." Agriculture is an important sector which urgently needs to be developed. Egypt's agriculture sector makes up 14 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 20 per cent of exports. Moreover, the agricultural sector is one of the largest employers since, according to CAPMAS, it is the source of income for 55 per cent of Egypt's population. The total labour force in the sector is 5.7 million workers representing 26 per cent of Egypt's total labour force estimated at 22.2 billion in 2009. To promote the sector, Abbas recommended some measures such as raising the productivity of some agricultural crops. Due to efforts of the Agricultural Research Centre, Egypt is first in the world to achieve the highest productivity in some crops such as sugar cane and rice, according to Abbas. "The government should provide more financial support to scientific research to help in raising productivity," he added. To fill the gap between production and consumption, the study recommended expanding the cultivation of strategic crops. This move will help reduce imports of some food staples such as wheat and corn estimated at 50 per cent of total consumption. Reducing production waste is also an important issue. Abbas said that the waste of food products stands at between 10 and 30 per cent, a high figure omnipresent during marketing. "The marketing problem is deeper than production itself. Marketing should be organised before producing a crop," added Abbas. Providing financial support to farmers will encourage them to sustain in cultivating their lands. Moreover, the cooperatives model should be revived within a sound economic context. Consumption rationalisation is also an important issue mentioned in the study. A media campaign is recommended to help people rationalise their food consumption. Abbas added that a gradual transfer of the subsidy programme into direct cash support provided to certain poor categories would help reduce consumption. Increasing the investments directed to the agricultural sector is a must. "An investment map for the agricultural sector is also needed to go in line with each governorate's special circumstances," Abbas said. The study recommended that a future plan should include two directions; first, to cultivate in the Delta Valley with a marketing strategy for small farmers, and second, to expand cultivation of large scale farms directed to exports and agricultural manufacturing through agricultural industrial complexes that have direct links to young graduates who cultivate in newly reclaimed lands. Although the international food crisis has a clear impact on Egypt, the internal factors and Egypt's local capabilities remain the most important players to achieve development.
