Egypt's wheat stockpiles may be enough to cover its needs for months, but experts say wheat should be given priority as a national food security issue, Mona El-Fiqi reports A shortage of flour at bakeries reported in some governorates raised fears that strategic reserves of wheat are not sufficient to produce subsidised bread, which represents the main food staple for the majority of Egyptians. Per capita consumption of flour stands at 160 kilogrammes a year compared to 100 kilogrammes anywhere else in the world. In response, Minister of Social Solidarity Gouda Abdel-Khaleq announced that the current strategic reserves of wheat exceed 2.5 million tonnes, an amount sufficient to meet local needs for 150 days. Experts explained that a shortage of flour does not mean a threat to Egypt's total wheat reserves. Nader Noureddin, professor of agricultural resources at Cairo University and former chairman of the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), explained that the shortage of flour does not mean a drop in wheat stocks. Rather, he said, it was an administrative issue resulting from the termination of a private contract since it was a result of ending a tender taken by private sector companies to deliver flour to bakeries to produce subsidised bread. Ali Meselhi, former minister of social solidarity, issued a tender that permits private companies to provide flour to bakeries in four governorates. According to Noureddin, when the delivery period ended, private companies stopped delivering, causing shortage. Although Noureddin agreed with officials that Egypt has enough wheat stockpiles, he had doubts concerning the announced amounts. "The total wheat stockpiles do not exceed 2 million tonnes since the maximum capacity of local silos are 1.5 million tonnes in addition to 0.5 million tonnes of locally produced wheat which can be stored outside silos," Noureddin explained. He added that wheat shipments on their way to Egypt are also used to be counted as stockpiles. Moreover, experts are optimistic that the local wheat harvest will be collected by the end of April to add to the current wheat stockpiles. Ali Sharafeddin, chairman of the Cereals Chamber at the Federation of Egyptian Industries, said that the subjected lands planted with wheat this year is 3.5 million feddan but in fact 2.8 million feddan which are currently cultivated by wheat to give five million tonnes of wheat. Egypt's annual consumption of wheat is 14 million tonnes, of which almost 10 million tonnes are imported. Egypt, thus, is highly affected by the changes of the international wheat prices. Last year, the wheat prices hiked due to a Russian decision to ban grain exports following a severe drought of its lands. Since Russia is one of the main wheat exporters, the result was a clear shortage of wheat supply in the global market causing high prices and Egypt had to pay a high imports bill for its imported wheat. Sharafeddin said that nowadays the international price remains high since it is the last two months of the current wheat marketing season. One more reason for raising international wheat prices is that during the past few weeks, some North Africa and Middle East governments, which are dependent on grain imports, have scrambled to secure food imports in hopes of calming growing unrest. Noureddin said that some countries such as Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Kuwait started to build up their reserves to ensure food security and political stability. As a consequence, Noureddin explained that, last week, wheat prices registered their peak to reach $365 per tonne compared to $200 per tonne in March 2010. However, as soon as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) announced its forecasts that global wheat production is expected to increase about three per cent for 2011, based on improved wheat production in Russia and former Soviet Union countries, prices started to go down to $310 per tonne on Monday 28 March, according to Noureddin. The FAO's first forecast for the total global wheat production is expected to reach 676 million tonne in 2011 compared to 648 million tonne in 2010. Russia is expected to announce its decision to continue grain exports ban or to resume exports in June when the wheat is harvested. Experts say that as far as strategic crops are concerned, Egypt, which imports 50 per cent of its total food needs, should not depend on imports. Ashraf Kamal Abbas, professor of agricultural economics at the Agriculture Research Centre said that although the government has announced that it has adequate short-term wheat stockpiles, a package of procedures, including subsidisation, should be adopted to expand wheat cultivation to achieve self-sufficiency. "Some countries support farmers at levels exceeding the total value of agricultural products to ensure the continuity of planting lands," Abbas said. Abbas also said raising the delivery price of wheat to match international prices, and announcing prices early enough to encourage farmers to cultivate wheat, is also important. Moreover, he added, an institutional reform of Egyptian agricultural sector should be targeted, by establishing a strong cooperative entity able to express farmers' needs, provide production inputs including seeds and fertilisers, provide easy-term loans and help them to market production. In an attempt to improve local wheat production, Minister of Agriculture Ayman Abu Hadeed announced that the government is implementing an urgent plan to raise farmer awareness of the importance of cultivating wheat. Abu Hadeed said that starting April, farmers are expected to supply more than two million tonnes of wheat this season. Abu Hadeed added that the government has raised the delivery price of wheat to encourage farmers to increase the amounts they supply to the government. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf held a meeting last week with members of the Federation of Egyptian Industries' Cereals Chamber to assert the importance of encouraging farmers to cultivate wheat and corn. Chamber Chairman Ali Sharafeddin said that a conference is being planned for May, in cooperation with agriculture officials, to find measures to encourage farmers to plan strategic crops.
