If the Palestinians succeed in gaining UN membership later this month, this will be a political tsunami for Israel, write Ismail Salami and Kourosh Ziabari The plight of the Palestinian people is no closed book to anyone in the world, since this is a subjugated nation that has been unjustifiably subjected to discrimination and violence for the past six decades. Even the close allies of Israel and those who support the continued occupation of Palestine admit in private that the actions and policies of the Israeli regime are beyond the pale and run counter to the principles of humanity and morality. Almost everyday, the mass media reports Palestinians being killed or injured by Israeli forces. Hundreds of Palestinian women and children are incarcerated in Israeli jails, their dignity flagrantly violated. The homes of Palestinian citizens are demolished by bulldozers everyday, and Zionist settlements are constructed in their place. As a colonial regime, Israel has never spared any efforts to suppress the Palestinian nation. The 2008-2009 Operation Cast Lead, which claimed the lives of 1,417 Palestinians and destroyed a great deal of the infrastructure of the Gaza coastal enclave including schools, mosques, hospitals and even the UN headquarters, was only one example of Israel's unrelenting atrocities committed against the people of Palestine. Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has committed every type of war crime and crime against humanity. It has constantly violated international law, including the 1907 Hague Conventions, the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949, and the customary laws of occupation in wartime. However, the United States and its European allies have endowed Israel with immunity to the law and protected it from accountability before the international community. Since 1982, the United States has vetoed 27 United Nations Security Council Resolutions critical of Israel and hindered investigation into Israel's criminal actions, including building illegal settlements on Palestinian land, deporting Palestinian citizens from their hometowns, incarcerating children and women without charge, and building and accumulating nuclear weapons. However, the Palestinians have realised that it is time for their sufferings to come to an end and to start a new era in the life of their browbeaten country. With this in mind, they are preparing to put forward a resolution at the United Nations General Assembly in order officially to become the 194th member state of the United Nations. On November 15, 1988, the Palestine Liberation Organisation's (PLO) National Council unilaterally adopted the Palestinian Declaration of Independence and claimed territories that then remained under Israeli occupation. Since 1974, when the Arab League summit recognised the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people "and reaffirmed their right to establish an independent state," Palestine has had the status of an observer at the United Nations without the right to participate in votes in the General Assembly. After the 1988 declaration, the General Assembly officially acknowledged the proclamation and voted to use the designation "Palestine" instead of "Palestine Liberation Organisation" when referring to the Palestinian permanent observer at the UN. Now after spending two decades as an observer, Palestine is seeking full membership of the United Nations. When the General Assembly convenes on September 13, it will decide on whether to accept Palestine as an official and sovereign member state or not. However, the Palestinians have a long way to go in order to realise their statehood, and it is likely to be a complicated journey. According to a recent article in the New York Times and quoted by US author and political commentator Stephen Lendman, "last March, Israel told UN Security Council members and other prominent EU countries it will act unilaterally if the General Assembly grants Palestine de jure membership in September inside 1967 borders, or 22 per cent of historic Palestine." Lendman commented that if Palestine was granted full membership of the UN, Israel would likely deny recognition and continue its illegal occupation of Palestinian land, this time against a sovereign country of the UN. However, even if Israel keeps up with its hostility, the "automatic majority" of the UN General Assembly, Lendman wrote, would likely take the side of Palestine. US President Barack Obama, who was recently snubbed by the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu when he said that Israel should recognise the state of Palestine within the pre-1967 borders, has rhetorically accepted Palestine's plans for submitting a bid for membership in the UN. However, he has also implied that these plans should be checked with and verified by Israel. In other words, "he supports Israeli veto power of Palestinian rights, including sovereignty, an unacceptable or illegal condition under international law," Lendman commented. From a legal viewpoint, Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories should end if Palestine succeeds in gaining a vote of statehood from two-thirds of General Assembly members. Lendman also said that Washington had already provisionally recognised Palestine as an independent state, and according to UN Charter Article 80 (1), it cannot reverse its position by vetoing a Security Council resolution calling for Palestine's UN admission. However, it should be kept in mind that even though Mahmoud Abbas, acting head of the Palestinian Authority (PA), has made numerous concessions to Israel and tried to please the US and its European allies, he has also made several enemies in the public sphere, especially among US congressmen, media personalities and pundits. A recent article published by the American conservative FrontPage magazine argued that Palestine could not meet the requirements for full membership of the UN. "The first problem is that the PA cannot yet demonstrate all of the four characteristics required for statehood by international law. A sovereign state is a political entity with a defined territory, a permanent population, a functioning government with the ability to exercise sovereignty over that territory (i.e. to command habitual obedience from that population by means of that state's monopoly on the use of force), and the capacity to enter into relations with other sovereign states," the article said. A recent poll conducted by Press TV showed that 47 per cent of respondents believed that the PA's bid would gain a majority of votes at the UN, but that it would be vetoed in the Security Council by the US. Some 24 per cent of respondents said that the US and Israel would prevent the bid from being presented at the UN General Assembly in September. Roughly 13 per cent said the bid would fail to garner enough votes on account of pressure exerted by Washington and Tel Aviv. There would be repercussions for the Zionist regime if Palestine succeeded in gaining recognition. One source in the Israeli government has cited four such possible repercussions, including that international perceptions of Israel as an occupying state will shift to it as a colonising one; countries voting in favour of recognising Palestine might impose economic sanctions on Israel and sever trade ties; Israel might be forced to depart from international trade organisations; and the international community might force Israel to approve the construction of the first Palestinian international airport in the West Bank. These are all possibilities that may take place, but in regard to the first, that perceptions of Israel may shift from being seen as an occupying state to a colonising one, it should be pointed out that Israel has been a colonising state for decades. Interestingly, the same source predicted that of the 192 member states of the UN General Assembly, around 180 were likely to vote for the recognition of a Palestine state, with six abstaining and a further six opposing. This sounds like a very optimistic viewpoint, and it is surely one to which the Palestinians and the rest of the Muslim world aspires. However, anyone with any degree of political savvy is well aware of the amount of influence the Zionists exercise on the US. Some pundits see the possible UN recognition of a Palestinian state as being a potential political tsunami for the Zionist regime. If the recognition of Palestine is not a nightmare for Israel and its cronies, then what is? The writers are Iranian journalists and authors.
