A parade by the Al-Mahdi Army demanding the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq has highlighted possible explosions to come when the Americans finally leave, writes Salah Hemeid Followers of radical Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr rallied in Baghdad last week to demand that the US military leave Iraq at the end of the year as the country's political deadlock intensified and security deteriorated. The parade by Al-Mahdi Army militia was called by Al-Sadr, who has recently stepped up efforts to reinstate himself in Iraq's political process after nearly four years of self-imposed exile in neighbouring Iran. Nearly 100,000 unarmed militiamen wearing uniforms in the red, white and black of Iraq's flag paraded on Thursday in orderly lines down a main street displaying combat skills and shouting anti- American slogans. As the marchers stamped on US, British and Israeli flags painted on the tarmac in Al-Sadr City, an impoverished stronghold of the radical cleric in Baghdad, they were cheered by supporters who waved Al-Sadr's picture and banners proclaiming "No to the Occupation" and "the people want the occupiers out". Although the carefully orchestrated event was peaceful, it brought many parts of Baghdad to a standstill as schools and government offices closed and security checkpoints, usually numerous in the district, relaxed or even disappeared, apparently to avoid skirmishes with the militiamen. The defiant show of force sent shockwaves across the sprawling capital as many residents feared that the move by the militia could undermine Iraq's fledging efforts to move beyond years of sectarian bloodshed. Al-Sadr has been rousing passions for months owing to his persistent rejection of any extension of the US military presence in Iraq past the 31 December deadline. He has also made this rejection a central part of his political strategy, seeking to capitalise on rising anti- American sentiment in Iraq. Al-Sadr, whose staunchly anti- American movement counts several ministers serving in Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's government, has rallied supporters and threatened to revive his Al-Mahdi Army militia if US forces remain beyond the deadline. Following the 2003 US-led invasion, Al-Sadr gained widespread popularity among Shias, and the Al-Mahdi Army later battled American and Iraqi government forces in several bloody confrontations. In August 2008, Al-Sadr suspended the activities of the Al-Mahdi Army, once numbering in the tens of thousands, after major assaults by the Iraqi army on its strongholds in Baghdad and southern Iraq led by Al-Maliki himself. His return to Iraq after his group won 40 seats in last year's parliamentary elections is being widely seen as an attempt to return to centrestage of Iraqi politics by drumming up an agenda pushing for a full US troop withdrawal and keeping the Iraqi government in check. Al-Maliki has so far refrained from making any announcement on whether he will ask the Americans to stay longer, although he and the members of most other blocs in the cabinet appear to accept some sort of continued US military presence past 2011. Many observers believe that Al-Sadr's splitting from the government would severely weaken Al-Maliki's fragile coalition cabinet and threaten the country's hard-won security gains. They note that any such move has been carefully designed to allow the firebrand cleric to improve his standing and acquire a greater political role. Last week's march came as a wave of violence hit the Iraqi capital and other major cities, killing dozens of people in a spate of assassinations and bomb blasts that renewed questions about whether the country's security forces would be able to repel future threats. Hours after the rally dispersed, gunmen attacked and killed the head of the country's Justice and Accountability Commission, the body responsible for purging elements loyal to former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein from the government. The gunmen used weapons mounted with silencers to kill Ali Al-Lami as he was escorted by a relative while driving on one of Baghdad's main highways. There were no claims of responsibility for the attack, but remnants of Saddam's former Baath Party regime were blamed for the killing. On Sunday, a candidate for the position of defense minister in the government escaped a bomb attack in the northern city of Mosul. One day later, the governor of Mosul, Atheel Al-Nujaifi, escaped a roadside bomb explosion that struck his convoy in this key northern city. Meanwhile, political turmoil in the country has worsened as the ruling coalition stumbled over a power- sharing deal that included naming new security ministers. The key Sunni-backed Al-Iraqia bloc decided on Tuesday to suspend its ministers' participation in cabinet meetings in protest at al-Maliki's failure to comply with the agreement. Al-Iraqiya's leader, Iyad Allawi, also accused Al-Maliki of failing to build up the army and security forces and challenged him to take what he described as "a brave and clear decision" on the future of the US troop presence in Iraq. On Monday, one of Iraq's three vice-presidents resigned just two weeks after being appointed to the post. It was not clear why Adel Abdel-Mahdi had stepped down, but officials in his Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council bloc indicated that the resignation had been prompted by disagreement with Al-Maliki. Over recent weeks, concerns have been rising about the sorry state of the country's security, politics and economy. The worries have prompted many politicians to predict the collapse of Al-Maliki's government and further instability after the American troops leave. The tensions have further deepened the long-running ethnic and religious divide that has run through the country since the 2003 US-led invasion and raised questions about what might happen if the Americans leave. Under a 2008 US-Iraq security agreement, the US is obliged to withdraw its forces by the end of this year, and US President Barack Obama has vowed to bring all US troops home by that time. Despite claims by the United States that it no longer engages in combat actions in the country, there have been numerous reports of US troops still being active and operating behind the scenes or outside the spotlight. Outgoing US defense secretary Robert Gates and some congressional leaders have also pushed Iraqi leaders to ask Washington to keep some troops in Iraq, with Gates recently telling Congress that talks about extending the deadline were ongoing. Indeed, there are increasing worries among many Iraqis that a power vacuum left by an American withdrawal could make the situation even messier than the eight-year occupation itself. Many Iraqi Shias and Sunnis believe the withdrawal could herald a return to the sectarian violence that then plagued the country, especially if Shia militiamen and Sunni insurgents return to the streets. Many Iraqis are also concerned that Iran, which already enjoys tremendous influence in Iraq, will take advantage of the security and political turmoil that is widely expected after the withdrawal to advance its influence in Iraq. Al-Maliki suggested last week that the country's main political leaders meet to discuss whether a contingent of US troops should stay beyond the year-end deadline, possibly hoping that such an agreement could isolate Al-Sadr politically and force him to abandon plans to reactivate his militia. The situation in Iraq has been a tragic one since the US-led occupation began, and the country may now be doomed if US troops do not remain on its soil. It is part of the country's national predicament that Iraqis now have to choose between prolonged foreign occupation and anarchy.
